PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’m retiring from regular Titans blogging March 9. Early draft thoughts post Tuesday, probably around noon CT, then another post Wednesday before I ride off into the sunset of Twitter.
Well, that was certainly unexpected news. Adam Schefter dropped the bomb Monday evening, reporting that the Titans were finalizing a deal with the Philadelphia Eagles to acquire running back DeMarco Murray.
There are a number of factors that go into thinking about this move, so I’ll quickly go to list format.
1. Finalization. The deal cannot be completed until the new League Year begins on Wednesday afternoon, and Murray will need to pass a physical for things to get done. That the deal won’t be official means we shouldn’t expect to hear anything from the Titans until then. The physical is normally pro forma, unless there’s some sort of issue and the team gets cold feet after the initial terms were struck. That doesn’t happen often, but it could from time to time (most prominent recent example off the top of my head is Rodger Saffold’s free agency deal with the Raiders).
2. Compensation-Trade. This has not yet come out. My general heuristic for trade value in the NFL is players at non-premium positions making market or above-market salaries have very little trade value. Murray signed a big free agent contract last offseason (more on this in my next point), so the Titans should not have had to give up very much to get him, especially because there were many reports he was unhappy in Philadelphia. My idea of “fair” compensation would be a late round pick; I suggested on Twitter earlier that the sixth-round pick they got from Atlanta in the Andy Levitre trade, would be about right. If they give up a pick in the fifth round or higher, then I’ll be angry. I don’t expect to be angry, but we’ll see.
3. Compensation-Salary. One reason the Eagles were so eager to trade Murray was the generous contract the now-departed Chip Kelly gave him last offseason. That deal included a fully guaranteed 2016 base salary of $7 million and a guarantee of $2 million of 2017’s $7.5 million base salary, plus non-guaranteed base salaries of $7.5 million in 2018 and 2019 and roster bonuses and further partial guarantees for that year in 2017-19. Murray’s representatives indicated on Twitter that the trade included a new contract, though Ian Rapoport did indicate the guaranteed money doesn’t change (I assume that refers to the $9 million, not the rolling guarantees). Like the trade compensation, this is another thing that can only be fully evaluated with actual information. I would expect a similar structure, though, with a high base salary and the ability to get out after a year or two, though probably at a cost in 2017.
4. Backfield Roles. I’d written several times, including earlier today (it’s Tuesday night as I write this), that I thought the Titans were quite likely interested in separate run game and passing game backs. It fit with Jon Robinson’s background in New England. It fit with much of Mike Mularkey’s history as an offensive coordinator. It fit with Mularkey’s public statement. It was wrong, because it doesn’t fit with this deal at all. Murray is a real three-down back who showed in 2014 he can carry the ball as much as Mularkey wants his lead back to carry the ball and who’s shown throughout his career he can be effective catching the ball out of the backfield.
5. The Other Backs. What does this mean for the other backs in the Titans’ backfield? Maybe not as much as you’d quite think. I could see the Titans going into the season with Murray, plus David Cobb as the backup power back, Dexter McCluster as the backup passing game back and returner, and Antonio Andrews as a utility guy (plus Jalston Fowler the fullback). The only player in that group whose role might even be really affected would be McCluster, and he wasn’t going to have that many touches anyway. Of course, we’ll see what else, if anything, the Titans do at running back this season.
6. Murray the Back: Macro-Level. It’s easy to tell a bad story about Murray and what he’s likely to be. He turned 28 in February. He averaged 3.6 yards per carry last year. He has over 1100 carries in his NFL career. He’s only played 16 games once in five seasons. The team that made him a splash signing last offseason quickly soured on him and basically had to give him away. None of this is untrue. I’ve been a Murray fan since Oklahoma, though, and think he can be an effective back for the Titans for the next couple seasons, though.
7. Murray the Back: Fit. I’m prepared to give Murray a bit of a pass for how unsuccessful he was in Philadelphia last year, because I don’t think he was used well, and I think the Titans will use him better and more like he was used in Dallas in 2014. The basic explanation is Philadelphia tried to use him as a lateral runner on sweeps designed to get the perimeter, while Dallas permitted him to get downhill and attack upfield much more quickly.
I expect the Titans to use him much more like the Cowboys did. True, Dallas ran a lot of outside zone, but they weren’t the old Gary Kubiak Houston Texans, whose idea of offensive balance was running outside zone left after running outside zone right. Dallas ran inside zone plenty and also ran counter, where Murray had to follow pulling linemen and let his blocks set up. The Cowboys also let Murray work mostly under center (356 of 392 carries). That let him get downhill before he even received the ball. The Titans were primarily an under-center running team. In the final nine games under Mularkey, about three-quarters of their runs came with the quarterback under center even though they spent plenty of time in shotgun overall. The sweep was not the Titans’ primary run play, nor was it Mularkey’s favored run play in his previous stops. Murray will be asked to run more base NFL runs in 2016 than he was in 2015, things like Power, Lead, and the basic zone plays. He’s shown he can do those well.
8. Team Impact. Murray’s a very good all-around back. He gets downhill well, has some power, can create on his own at the second level, and has enough speed to break some long runs. His 2014 backup Joseph Randle had a point that he left some yards on the field in 2014, but basically every non-Arian Foster back does (and Foster left yards on the table, too, from the long runs he didn’t break and in the games he didn’t play). The Titans really needed a good back because they had some of the worst in the league. They’ve tried adding backs for years, under a number of different regimes, but the only good one they found in the past 10 years was Chris Johnson (and enough said about him lest I get on a tangent). That Murray is a very good back means they won’t have to waste search costs.
But I think the Titans could’ve gotten most of the way there by adding some backs who were just good at one thing instead of bad. This acquisition therefore doesn’t move the needle for me that much, for a number of reasons. First, that Murray is a three-down back means if he does go down they’ll be hurt more in both the run and the pass game and will be less able to compensate for him by switching the focus of the offense and gameplan in that week. Second, though Murray is a very good back, he’s not going to create a run game on his own. If the offensive line stinks, I don’t think he’s likely to make a ton of yards on his own (this was part of why he struggled so much in 2015). Third, the variance in run games just isn’t that great. Even with Murray, the key for the Titans will be how Mariota and the passing game progress. Fourth, Murray’s effectiveness will be dependent on the parts around him. If the defense is anywhere close to as bad as it was at the end of 2015, even the best run game in the world (which the Titans won’t have) won’t be good enough to save them.
It’s one move. We still don’t know a couple of the key provisions, which could make it a pretty awful move. The Titans still should, and I expect them to, make several moves. But as a start, in an offseason where I didn’t necessarily expect that much to happen, it doesn’t seem like a bad start.
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