I use the word ‘potential’ a lot when I do these profiles (our own Marijn Pessers pointed this out to me). The reason for that is that while I believe we can analyze a players skillset coming out of college, and in some cases can even project production value, at the end of the day its still just guesses. Even a player like Andrew Luck had nothing more than potential coming out; it was just that his potential was so incredibly high he was considered a virtual ‘sure thing’. The next player on our list, Alvin ‘Bud’ Dupree, isn’t one of those guys. In fact of every player I plan to review he is probably the one most defined by his ‘potential’. He isn’t necessarily raw, but he is right on the precipice between being an elite talent destined for stardom, and a potential bust.
What about him is special?
Dupree is the quinticential speed rusher. He is often the first player off the line and if the tackle (or god forbid tight end) doesn’t immediately get their hands on him it is usually over.. Dupree is most definitely a ‘quick-twitch’ athlete. He has more than solid burst to get into the backfield in a hurry and more often than not he finishes plays when he gets there. Dupree has a good amount of experience playing as a 3-4 outside linebacker and has demonstrated adequate cover skills to not be a total liability when dropping into a zone (hi Junior). Dupree is tenacious, plays with a chip on his shoulder, and is mostly very good at diagnosing run plays.
All of that is his ‘upside’. Dupree at his best would probably be the second defensive player taken in this draft, but while he displays solid technique at times, most of his production comes as a result of his freakish gifts (42 inch vertical at 269!). After all the moves of the last week I have actually begun to want Dupree at 13 more than any of the other edge rushers in this draft. The peak for this kid is literally incalculuable at this point as the only thing more solid about him than his phsycial gifts is his character. Dupree was a team captain and (to my knowledge) has not had any issues with authority, the law, or his teammates. Dupree is a hard worker who would fit in well with the culture Payton is trying to rebuild in NO. The fact that he is probably the ideal player to line up opposite Junior Galette (if for no other reason than he doesn’t suck against the run and is just as explosive) certainly doesn’t hurt either. In my opinion Dupree has the raw ability to blossom into a player much like Von Miller, and if he can even get to be 70% of the player Von is this is a flat out steal.
What are the worries with him?
Dupree may have outstanding athleticism, a great motor, a chip on his shoulder, and a ton of room to grow, and solid character. However, one possible red flag against him is the fact he played for Mark Stoops who runs an extremely aggressive system that has a history of producing college stars who never pan out in the NFL. That isn’t to say Dupree is one of those guys, but the question of whether it’s the scheme or the player is an important one. The two biggest issues for Dupree though are his lack of great length (not quite Tyranosaurus arms…but not the longest guy ever either), and more importantly his lack of great bulk/strength.
Dupree is a speed guy, and he doesn’t have the flashes of power demonstrated by Beasley and Fowler Jr. which projects them to be solid against the run (Fowler in particular). Dupree to this point has been able to make up for that with tenacity, but the question has to be asked on how much strength he can add, and if he can use that strength well (almost always the bigger issue). He projects to have incredible rushing potential with just enough versatility in his game where he can play all three downs, but if he stays light in the pads and doesnt develop a much more robust ‘tool belt’ as an OLB then he may well fail to live up to that lofty potential. Teams will simply run right at him and ‘hit him in the mouth’ with their tackles, gaining chunks of yardage as he fails to shed his block (sound familiar?).
My personal Verdict on him.
I choose to believe that his work ethic and character will allow him to put in the work to cover up his weaknesses. He also would be joining a defense with two of the brightest minds on the defensive side of the ball in the NFL (Ryan and Allen). Both are guys players seem to really like and both have reputations as being solid teachers as well. Dupree might actually be the purest OLB prospect other than Fowler in this draft and I simply don’t see a scenario where Fowler is available at 13. To me the decision at that point is clear; you go get the guy who has the highest potential to be a difference maker and the lowest potential to be a flat out bust (Hi Sedrick Ellis). Dupree is that guy. He was consistently productive in the SEC with very little around him, and that tells me that he is very likely to be able to at worst be a productive player in the NFL. While you would rather get a ‘star’ at 13, a player who is at least ‘productive’ is by no means a loss. Combine that with the enormous potential he has and it is my opinion (as of now and pending further moves) that Dupree is the best pick for the NO Saints at 13 on the defensive side of the ball.
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