PROGRAMMING NOTE: I’m retiring from Titans blogging effective March 9, a.k.a. “tomorrow.” Unless some other really big news breaks between now and lunchtime tomorrow, like yesterday’s DeMarco Murray deal, this will be my next-to-last post here. My final one will be an attempt to say something about the Titans in 2016 and beyond, and probably some concluding thoughts. Unless I change my mind between now and then.
This is MUCH too early to be writing a draft post. It’s especially much too early for me to be writing a draft post. I haven’t begun serious watching of draft prospects yet, and won’t for another two to three weeks. I prefer to wait until the end of March or early April to begin writing about the draft because (a) I know much more about the draft prospects, especially those who might be targets after the top of the draft, and (b) we’ll have a much better idea of which positions the Titans pretty much have to and probably should consider addressing. With today being my next-to-last day writing here, though, it’s now or never. So, some very early, partly-formed, very much subject to change draft thoughts:
1. Free agency will do a lot to tell us where they go with the #1 pick. The Titans currently have on starting-caliber offensive tackle on the roster. NFL teams need two starting-caliber offensive tackles to be successful in the NFL, especially with Jon Robinson and Mike Mularkey’s stated interest in being strong up front. If the Titans don’t add a starting-caliber offensive tackle in free agency, then it seems pretty likely they’ll add a starting-caliber offensive tackle in the draft, by which I mean using the first overall pick on Laremy Tunsil. If they do add a starting-caliber offensive tackle in free agency, then it seems extremely unlikely to me they’ll use the first overall pick on Laremy Tunsil.
2. Acquiring DeMarco Murray should take running back off the board as a consideration early in the draft. I was really starting to get uncomfortable with the idea of Derrick Henry at #33, even though it seemed like the sort of fit Mularkey would like. Now, it’s off the table, or at least it better be. Drafting a back in the fifth round or later wouldn’t be a big deal to me, because how often has a player the Titans picked in the fifth round or later really done anything in the NFL (starters in the past 10 years: Cortland Finnegan, Jason McCourty, Avery Williamson).
3. I don’t want Joey Bosa with the #1 pick. Combine results confirmed what the tape suggested: Bosa doesn’t have the speed to turn the edge as an NFL pass rusher. His agility scores were nice, but I doubt he’ll ever be a premium player in the NFL.
4. What is Jalen Ramsey, a safety or a corner? Conventional wisdom across the NFL is that corners are more valuable than safeties. There are more than twenty corners making at least $8 million per year, and only half a dozen safeties (including Eric Berry on the franchise tag and Eric Weddle’s contract that expires tomorrow), per Over The Cap. This suggests that for the fixed price you get with a draft pick, you’re better off drafting a corner over a safety, all things considered. The counter argument to this is that Dick LeBeau’s defense has been defined more by its safeties, by which I mean Troy Polamalu, and hasn’t put as much emphasis on corners, especially shutdown corners who let you play 10v10, as Ray Horton’s variant did. This suggests that safety might be more valuable to the Titans than corner. There are layers I’m not quite getting to, and this is probably too complicated, but there’s a subtle value argument I’m trying to make that Ramsey very likely isn’t worth the #1 pick to the Titans as either a corner or a safety.
5. A trade down is probably for a defensive player. I wouldn’t take Bosa at #1. I don’t think Ramsey fits at #1. A few people I read and like have Myles Jack as the best prospect in the draft, but I can’t see the Titans taking him at #1. But if Robinson does trade down, just once or multiple times (like the Rams did after trading Washington the RG3 pick), then the best available defensive player becomes a real possibility and probably the favorite in my mind (depending of course on what else the Titans do between now and then).
6. The #1 pick is drawing all the attention, but #33 and #64 are about as valuable. Robinson has spoken about coming out of the draft with three starters (which was an interesting comment that goes in with the holes on the depth chart post). In about six weeks, we’ll have a much better idea which directions the Titans are likely to go with those particular picks. In about six weeks, I’ll also have a much better feel on which players might be available at those spots and which the Titans might consider fits instead of just repeating names I’ve heard that sound like they might be attractive like Houston CB William Jackson and Boise St. OLB Kamalei Correa.
7. Jon Robinson is a huge unknown. We know where he’s been. We can look at what Tampa did last year, and what sorts of players New England drafted when he was involved in the draft. But Bill Belichick is the impresario in New England, and Jason Licht was drafting players for Lovie Smith’s schemes. The DeMarco Murray trade wasn’t the sort of thing I expected from Robinson, both in terms of style (trading for an older RB) and role (three-down back of the sort I didn’t think the Titans wanted). We don’t know what sorts of players he wants. We don’t know how he treats the pre-draft process, if being a visitor will carry anywhere near as much weight as Ruston Webster put on it (possibly, and don’t discount private workouts, which Robinson has specifically stated are important). Like yesterday’s free agency post, linking the Titans to draft prospects will be a matter of outside evaluations of need and fit and dot-connecting, and may be completely wrong.
8. One underrated need: interior pass rush. Nose tackle is the hole on the depth chart, but one thing Robinson mentioned in his recent radio interviews was he wanted a pass-rushing defensive lineman who was also strong against the run. I didn’t list DL as a free agency area of need since the players who’d fit would get a zillion dollars (early report: Malik Jackson got $15 million per year from the Jaguars) and I couldn’t see the Titans paying that. Like everyone else, though, Robinson has noted defensive line depth as a strength of the draft. Don’t be surprised if the Titans go a pass-rushing defensive lineman with their second- or third-round pick.
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