Now that the NBA draft is less than 2 weeks away, I figured it would be as good a time as any to do my position by position rankings for the 2016 NBA Draft. Today, we will start with the point guards. Point guard has been a position of need for the Sixers for quite some time. The team played without a capable point guard all last season. Ish Smith was a fine midseason addition but he’s now a free agent and certainly isn’t the longterm answer at point guard. So now, the Sixers turn their sights toward a draft which also may not have the longterm answer at the lead guard position. The presumed selection of Ben Simmons further complicates the situation as the team will need have his skillset in mind while evaluating these players. Still, there are some interesting players in the draft at the point guard position and I am sure the Sixers are interested in acquiring at least one of these guys. Now, before we start, we have to set the rules. Fit will certainly be taken into account. It is important to see how these guys and their skillsets will mesh with other pieces on the Sixers. At some positions, like the point guard spot, fit will be valued more highly than others due to the nature of the position of this current iteration of the Sixers roster. However, this is the NBA, so I will place the most value on my individual confidence in each player’s ability in a vacuum. With all that out of the way, let’s begin.
1.Wade Baldwin, Vanderbilt
Baldwin is my favorite point guard in this year’s draft, regardless of team. With Baldwin, the conversation starts with his body. He has pretty good height at 6’3” but supplements that with a 6’11” wingspan. Combine that with good lateral quickness and you have the potential for a monster on the defensive end. Not only can Baldwin be a lockdown individual defender with that length, he can also be an incredibly versatile team defender. Baldwin would have the flexibility to guard both point and shooting guards. He also will most likely be able to switch a lot of pick and rolls without being terribly exposed. Baldwin still has some work to improve as a defender but he certainly has all the tools and has already made progress in that area.
On offense, Baldwin’s biggest strength is probably his shooting. He shot 42% from deep during his sophomore season at Vandy while also showing a nice pull-up game from the midrange. Still, Baldwin isn’t just a stand still shooter. He also showed an adept ability at running the pick and roll in college with good instincts and passing ability. He will need to improve his handle to do that consistently at the next level but that’s certainly possible. In terms of other weaknesses, Baldwin needs to improve as a finisher around the basket. He’s not terrible, but with his length, he should be better than he has shown. Lastly, Baldwin may be a good athlete in terms of fluidity, he isn’t particularly explosive. That’s not quite as important for him as some other players, but it could still cause Baldwin some problems in the NBA.
Baldwin’s combination of defensive and shooting abilities make him the perfect combination to play with Ben Simmons. You need to surround Simmons with good defenders to help him on that side of the floor. Baldwin is certainly that. On offense, Baldwin spaces the floor for Simmons while not needing the ball to be effective on offense. Simmons playmaking ability from the power forward position also helps a guy like Baldwin who might struggle to create for an entire offense at the NBA level due to a lack of explosiveness. Baldwin might not ever be an elite point guard at the next level, but I don’t trust the other point guards in this class and his skillset meshes with Simmons perfectly. If the Sixers can find a way to acquire Baldwin without giving up a King’s ransom, they should pull the trigger.
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2.Kris Dunn, Providence
Dunn is the player that the vast majority of fans and analysts have as their number one point guard and I can see why. Dunn has good size for a point guard, standing at 6’4” with a 6’9” wingspan. Dunn also boasts really above average strength and athleticism from the lead guard position. With these tools, it is certainly able to project Dunn as an effective and possibly versatile defender in the NBA. At Providence, he demonstrated the ability to carry a team that wasn’t particularly talented and lacked a lot of spacing. He was responsible to creating everything for that team and did so relatively effectively. Teams also love Dunn’s intangibles. The young point guard is consistently lauded for his character, competitiveness and clutch ability. Combine all those skills together and one can certainly understand why people view Dunn highly.
Still, I have concerns with Dunn. He really struggled as both a distance shooter and with turnovers at Providence. Those are two pretty important areas for a point guard. Dunn did shoot 37% from 3 in his junior season at Providence but I’m not sure about the longterm viability of that shooting. There are certain mechanical flaws and eye-test inconsistencies that point towards regression and the inability to stretch that shot out to the NBA line. In terms of the turnovers, some of those are understandable because of the load that Dunn had to shoulder at Providence but others are not. Some of those turnovers were just a result of lazy passes and poor decisions by Dunn. This could certainly improve as he grows and is surrounded by better players but that certainly isn’t a guarantee. Lastly, I really don’t love Dunn’s age. It may seem silly to balk at the fact that Dunn is already 22 but it’s important. Dunn has already had more time to develop than other prospects, point guards take a few years to effectively transition to the NBA, and guards tend to peak in their mid to late 20s. That means it will take Dunn some time to adjust to the league and by the time he does, he may only have two more years of peak performance left. Essentially, I feel like Dunn has some huge flaws in his game and less time to fix them than other prospects. That’s not great.
I also don’t love Dunn’s fit with Simmons. The defensive potential is nice but I just don’t see it working on offense. Dunn lacks the shooting to space the floor consistently and may never get there. I also think Dunn is the type of guard who might need the ball a lot to be effective on offense. That would work with most other teams but I think that is certainly less than ideal with a player like Simmons. Overall, I think Dunn could certainly have a long career in the NBA. I do still have him as the number 2 point guard in this class. I also see some red flags with his game in general and his fit with Simmons that would dissuade me from investing highly in the point guard from Providence.
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3.Jamal Murray, Kentucky
Some may be perplexed be Murray’s inclusion of this list. Many, myself included, see Murray as more of a shooting guard. However, I think that the Sixers (especially with the forthcoming arrival of Ben Simmons) see Murray as more of point guard. As a point guard, I have some serious concerns with Murray. The main problem with Murray is his defense. At the point guard position Murray has decent size and length (6’4” with a 6’6” wingspan) but that cannot make up for his total lack of quickness. Opposing point guards will brutalize Murray throughout his career even if he makes significant strides as a defender. I just have no confidence in his ability to contain an opposing point guard in the pick and roll or switch onto longer defenders. This is all a problem.
On offense, the situation is slightly better for Murray. He is a deadly outside shooter, connecting on 44% of his 3 pointers at Kentucky. He also showed flashes of being able to create out of the pick and roll due to some nice passing skills but couldn’t do it consistently. Still Murray is one of the younger players in the entire draft and he could certainly continue to improve his body and handle to the point where he can consistently create for others. I have a lot more confidence in Murray’s ability to improve on offense than I do on defense, at least as a point guard.
In regards to Murray’s fit with Simmons, it is essentially the opposite of Dunn’s fit. Murray would be a great offensive fit next to Simmons. Murray could provide great spacing for the offense while Simmons could use his playmaking abilities to make up for some of Murray’s creative deficiencies. However, on defense there would be problems. Any team that wanted to put Murray and Simmons in a 1-4 pick and roll would torch the Sixers. It doesn’t matter what other defensive personnel is on the floor, you cannot survive against good teams with two poor defenders on the floor together. It’s just not possible. In the end, I don’t like Murray as much as a point guard as I do as a shooting guard, but the Sixers would most likely draft him to fill that lead guard need. I think Murray, like Dunn, will struggle with certain aspects of being a point guard in the NBA. I have Murray ranked below Dunn because I trust Jamal’s ability to improve on defense less than I trust Dunn’s ability to improve offensively.
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4.Demetrius Jackson, Notre Dame
Demetrius Jackson is an electrifying point guard. He may not be tall but he’s incredibly explosive. Jackson played both guard positions at Notre Dame. Early in his career, Jackson played offball due the presence of 2015 first round pick Jerian Grant. Jackson excelled offball as a secondary creator who used his athleticism and shooting to score efficiently. In 2016, Jackson finally got the chance to play lead guard full time. He succeeded in some areas and struggled in others. He showed some improved ballhandling and decision making but regressed on defense and in terms of his shooting due to an increased offensive load.
I think his college days showed that Jackson probably isn’t a starting point guard but he could certainly be useful off the bench. I think Jackson could carve out a role as a change of pace guard off the bench. Jackson is a really good standstill shooter so he could certainly play the two guard offensively if the defensive matchup allows it. I’m not entirely sure how I feel about Jackson on the Sixers. I think he has a role at the next level despite his height because of his athleticism and skills. However, I don’t think he will be worth the later lottery pick he is projected to go for. Maybe if Jackson fell some then I would be interested in his service but I wouldn’t trade anything of value to move into the late lottery to select him.
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5.Tyler Ulis, Kentucky
Ulis is a polarizing player. Some see him as a late lottery pick. Others wouldn’t touch him until the second round. The reason for this variance is Ulis’ height. No one would describe Ulis as tall. He stands at just 5’9” which severely limits his upside at the next level. Ulis will almost certainly never be a starter and will probably struggle to stay on the floor in certain matchups with bigger guards. Still, Ulis has some skills that I think will allow him to overcome his height. He is a legitimate floor general and one of the smartest players in the entire draft class. No point guard in the draft is as well equipped to come in and immediately run an NBA offense like Ulis. He also possesses pretty good quickness and shooting ability. Ulis isn’t particularly explosive but considering he is never going to be a star anyway, that probably isn’t as important for him as other prospects. Sure, Ulis will certainly struggle on defense but I think he carve out a role on an NBA team as a capable back up who can run the second unit with precision and efficiency.
For the Sixers, Ulis could be an option at pick 24 or 26. All the other point guards on this list will most likely be gone and I think Ulis is considerably better than the rest of point guards in this draft. Ulis could be the Sixers only option to get a legitimate high-end point guard prospect in this draft. I would prefer that the Sixers use these picks to move around in the draft or to select some of the talented wings projected to be in that range, but I think Ulis is a completely defendable pick too.
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Honorable Mentions
Kay Felder, Oakland
Got some good athleticism but is probably too small to succeed at the next level. Different from Ulis because he isn’t the same pure point and played at a smaller school against lesser competition.
Dejounte Murray, Washington
Has a lot of length and athleticism but isn’t a good enough shooter to stick. Really has no idea how to play point guard and cannot finish. Only on draft radar because of age and potential he likely won’t reach.
Gary Payton II, Oregon State
Interesting player. Elite defender from the point guard position but cannot shoot at all. May have a chance to carve out a role as a situational defender but is already almost 24.
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