It occurred to me the other day that I’m sometimes too quick to defend the Saints. After all, Drew Brees and Sean Payton have a lot of rope with me – as does Mickey Loomis – for what the were able to create between 2006 and 2013. I haven’t been as quick to jump on the “lynch everyone!” bandwagon but the reality is the Saints are still a 7-9 team three straight times staring us in the face. How long can we accept this? My tentative answer is that this is the end of the rope. We can’t accept this anymore. That means, make the playoffs in 2017 or it’s time for a new regime. All good things come to an end and until I see clear signs this ship is righting in the form of wins, my guess is the end is nigh. When I say a new regime – I mean completely reboot. Fire Loomis, Fire Payton, let Brees walk. That’s a scary and perhaps necessary thought. I’m not in a hurry to get there, mind you, because 7-9 is still a lot more fun than 3-13. I know some of you love the idea of a top 3 pick, but the reality is most teams that pick in the top 3 stay there for a while. They don’t draft a dude that changes the fortunes of their franchise. Anyway, this post isn’t about the end, and it’s not about the long term future. It’s about 2017. So apologize for getting dark but I want to highlight the importance of “now or never” in 2017. The reality is a memorable 2017 can give Payton, Loomis and Brees a stay of execution in New Orleans. I would love nothing more than that. We all would. To make that happen, though, there is no room for error this offseason. It’s time for the Saints to kick ass with their moves. Here’s the five things I view as most critical to flipping the switch:
1. Give the defense a difference making pass rusher
For the first time in YEARS, I actually feel pretty decent about the defensive line IF Nick Fairley returns. Cam Jordan, Fairley, Tyeler Davison and Sheldon Rankins are all players I really like now and going into the future. For the first time in a while the Saints are getting solid front four play. But we’re still missing a consistent pass rush. More specifically, explosive edge pressure. I don’t really care if that guy is signed in free agency, drafted or cloned – but the Saints can’t get by relying on the Kruger, Edebali and Kikaha on one leg train. To me, improving the pass rush with one dynamic player is the biggest thing the Saints could possibly accomplish. Look what Vic Beasley, Jr. leading the league in sacks did for Atlanta. Sacks = wins. In 2015, 9 of the top 10 teams in sacks made the playoffs. The Saints were 27th in sacks in 2016. And with the rate at which the Saints cornerbacks are getting injured, making the B. W. Webbs and Sterling Moores of the world’s job easier is a must. Saints corners are like Europe in the 1350s, black death is all around and it’s not a matter of if they drop but when. The assumption needs to be they need less time running with Julio Jones, Mike Evans and Greg Olsen, not more.
2. Keep Drew healthy in 2017 with an infusion of youth on the o-line
Andrus Peat ended up being a good draft pick. I can confidently say that now, and therefore I’d like to champion a huge sigh of relief we immediately do in unison. Go ahead, deep breath. Besides Peat, though, you’ve got Terron Armstead (25, but has a 35 year old knee), Zach Strief, Max Unger and Jahri Evans. That’s not a young line. In fact, it’s a borderline miracle that they were able to get so much mileage out of Strief, Evans AND Unger this year. Getting 16 decent to good quality games out of all three guys in 2017 – I’d rate at 5%. If you want the Saints to get to the playoffs, Brees has to stay healthy. And every year that passes, it’s more likely a funny hit will result in Brees being out of the picture. An infusion of talent and youth needs to happen. The Saints just can’t be in a position to put guys like Tony Hills and Tim Lelito out there. Interior help, specifically, is something they really shouldn’t have ignored in 2016. They were extremely fortunate to see the combination of Peat, Evans and Senio Kelemete overachieve. The Saints can’t count on that again. I love Kelemete, by the way, and I’m glad he’s on the Saints. He undoubtedly has a place on this team, and Landon Turner might too. I’m just saying I want more talent and youth in the mix as depth.
3. Pick a guy that will be a great player
The Saints pick 11th in this draft and conventional wisdom would suggest that should lead to an impactful player joining the black and gold. I really don’t care what position he plays. More than ever, EVERY position is in play for the Saints. Outside of kicker and punter, receiver might be the only position I’m not ok with the Saints drafting. QB, RB, any position on defense, you name it. That means if Leonard Fournette is there and you believe he’s the next Adrian Peterson – take him. That means Deshaun Watson is totally in play. I’ve already stated I want a pass rusher more than anything – but I’d rather draft an awesome running back at 11 than a decent pass rusher. Draft a superstar player, don’t draft a position. Again, more than ever, BPA has to be mentality with the 11th overall pick.
4. Add more talent on defense
Jairus Byrd and Fairley have to stay, in my opinion. The defense finally showed minor signs of life and improvement and losing either player could easily sink the Saints back to the abyss defensively. I just can’t go back there. I like Craig Robertson, Vonn Bell, Kenny Vaccaro, Jordan, Rankins, Davison, and Delvin Breaux. Ken Crawley could be decent. The Saints have some young talent. There’s also some guys on IR like Kikaha, Swann and P. J. Williams that could bounce back. Maybe one of those three guys gives you meaningful contribution in 2017. But the bottom line is guys like Sterling Moore, B. W. Webb, Nate Stupar, Roman Harper, Stephone Anthony and Paul Kruger playing meaningful snaps means your defense is operating at an inferior talent level. Sean Payton said it best – special teams guys starting on defense. More luck with health goes a long way, sure, but this defense just needs to keep building and adding promising talent. More guys will get hurt, you have to assume for that, so having bodies that can actually contribute and help will help this unit continue to improve.
5. Don’t assume Coby Fleener will get better
Fleener is what he is. The Saints are stuck with a bad contract for maybe two more years. He’ll be on the team and he’ll be a role player that comes and goes. Assuming a new year in the system will produce better results would be fatal, though. I don’t think they can count on him to develop into the equivalent of what he’s getting paid. The Saints need to assume he’s not getting any better. It was a bad signing and they need to move forward acknowledging that. I’m not saying he has no place in the offense, but he’s a distant 4th / 5th option in the passing game at this point. Too often Brees tried to force Fleener to work, especially early in the season. There needs to be acceptance he’s a decoy of sorts. If the Saints need to add a contingency like drafting a tight end or getting a different guy that means less snaps for Fleener – fine – but counting on him to deliver will result in the team getting burned. I think Fleener is a fine NFL player, by the way… my point is let’s accept what he is and not try to force him to be something he’s not.
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