Top 5 Prospects

By Andrew Lipsett
Now that Jon Lester and Craig Hansen appear to be Major League pitchers for the long haul, it’s time to revise the Sox’ top prospect lists. Lester and Hansen have sat atop them for most of the season, and their graduation understandably weakens the farm, but the Sox are not without a number of potential impact players in the high – and low – minors. Given that, I want to take a quick look at my own personal top 5 of the moment.
1. Dustin Pedroia, 22, 2B/SS, Pawtucket Red Sox
Pedroia is a name familiar to most Sox fans at this point. In the dog days of last summer, as the Sox were saying goodbye to Mark Bellhorn and Pedroia was tearing through Portland, there were rumblings that he’d get the call sooner rather than later. A wrist injury and prolonged slide later, the sparkplug MI is just now getting into the groove for the PawSox, and has improved his line to a very respectable .305/.386/.432 with 4 HR and 25 3B. Only an early season slump has kept his numbers from approaching the level he achieved in his breakout 2005 Portland campaign, where he hit .324/.409/.508; a little longer at the pace he’s on now and he’ll cement himself firmly as a prime starting 2B option for the 2007 Sox.
2. Jacoby Ellsbury, 22, CF, Portland Sea Dogs
Ellsbury, the Sox first pick in the 2005 draft, has made his way through the system rapidly, excelling at every stop. He’s a classic contact/speed hitter, with an excellent batting eye (though, curiously, his IsoD has declined steadily through his college and pro years). In 2005, he conquered Lowell with a batting line of .317/.418/.432, and though he displayed little power – scouts see him as less of a power threat than a contact threat – his ability to get on base is tremendously valuable. Once on base, he remains among the very best stealing threats in the minors; he runs a ton, and holds a pro-career SB rate of about 80% – quite good. He also takes with him an excellent defensive reputation in center field. Ellsbury has only been in Portland for about 2 weeks, but he’s clearly getting acclimated; his contact rate remains very high, as does his OBP, though much more of it is swallowed up into BA than in his previous pro stops. Following the development of his batting eye at higher levels will be interesting and telling; still, the fact remains that Ellsbury has yet to hit a slow point in his pro career, and is on track to reach the majors by late 2007 or early 2008. A better eye in Portland – along with continued development in the power department – could easily nudge him into the top spot on my list; many, including Soxprospects.com, already award him that position.
3. Michael Bowden, 19, SP, Greenville Drive
There might be no one on this list I’m more excited about than Bowden. Drafted in the supplemental 1st round of the 2005 draft out of high school, Bowden got very little PT in 2005 (just 6 innings in the GCL) with the Sox being cautious about a young arm. In his first full pro season, they started him in low-A Greenville, and he has been, in a word, stellar. With 92 innings under his belt, Bowden has K’d 105 batters while walking only 26 for a K/BB slightly better than 4.0. His WHIP sits at a very respectable 1.13, and his 3.23 ERA adequately reflects those results. He has done all of this at a fairly young age for his league. The Sox can afford to be cautious with Bowden, and should do so; at this point he can be expected to finish out the season at Greenville and open 07 in high-A Wilmington. An MLB ETA of 2009 isn’t unreasonable for an arm as young and promising as his; there’s no need to rush him, and every reason to protect him.
4. Clay Buchholz, 21, SP, Greenville Drive
Buchholz and Bowden have been the 1-2 punch for Greenville all season, and it’s barely clear which is the 1 and which is the two. Bowden tops Buchholz on this list because of just two things: his age and a superior K/BB. Not that Buchholz’s is bad by any means: in 82 innings in Greenville, Clay has K’d 93 batters and walked 24, for a K/BB of 3.88. His WHIP and ERA are both better than Bowden’s, at 1.09 and 3.06 respectively. In addition, Buchholz – another supplemental first round pick in last year’s draft – was a converted college OF; there is very little mileage on his arm coming into a pro career. Buchholz, due primarily to his age, could be advanced more aggressively than Bowden; I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Clay pushed to Wilmington after the dust from the trade deadline settles.
David Murphy, 24, OF, Pawtucket Red Sox
Only a few months ago, David Murphy probably wouldn’t have appeared anywhere on this top ten list. Many – including myself – still remain skeptical about his potential. But it is impossible to ignore what Murphy has done after April and early May of 2006: Theo Epstein’s 1st draft pick was promoted to Pawtucket on the 26th of May, and immediately continued the hot streak that had gotten him there. After cooling off somewhat of late, Murphy still boasts a batting line of .283/.368/.480 with 6 HR in 223 AAA AB’s. He’s been good enough both at the plate and in the field to figure into Boston’s RF discussion for 07 – a discussion that includes Trot Nixon and Wily Mo Pena. Still, caution should be excercised with Murphy. It was not long ago that people referred to him using the word ‘bust’; if he cools off further, the shine may start to wear off.
After Murphy, the lists begin to drop off fast. There are a lot of question marks further down; was Edgar Martinez’s 2005 over his head? What is going on with SS/2B Jed Lowrie and OF Luis Soto? Will Kris Johnson – a 2006 draftee – be able to make legitimate strides coming back from Tommy John surgery? And is Chad Spann’s 2006 (.304/.370/.487) for real?
There’s no question that the promotions of Lester and Hansen weaken the prospect classes for the Sox. But, of course, they’ve been weakened in the right way – with prospects becoming certifiable and valuable Major League ballplayers. I have little doubt that the same journey is ahead for all 5 of the names on this list; the question that should concern Sox fans is whether it’s in the future for the ones just below them.