Tostitos Fiesta Bowl Preview: Oklahoma State vs Stanford

Oklahoma State Cowboys (11-1, 8-1 in Big 12)

Most Impressive Victory: 44-10 vs Oklahoma (Dec 3rd)

Only Loss: 37-31 at Iowa State (Nov 18th)

Notable Alumni: Garth Brooks, Gary Busey, Randy Couture, Doug Gottlieb, Mike Gundy, Houston Nutt, T Boone Pickens, Barry Sanders, Thurman Thomas

Oklahoma State is one game away from playing for a National Championship. It was one Friday afternoon in the fall, Oklahoma State had a 24-7 lead on Iowa State and were probably thinking ahead to Bedlam. That’s when Iowa State started their comeback and the rest is history.

One game will likely define the Cowboys season but it’s really not fair. Oklahoma State had a fantastic year. They went 4-0 against teams in the Top 25 (at the time of the game) and also beat good Missouri and Baylor teams. After losing to Iowa State, Oklahoma State showed a lot of moxie by stepping up and destroying rival Oklahoma in the Bedlam Series after years of failing to beat the Sooners.

When the Cowboys have the ball they will put it in the air around 60% of the time. They are led by former minor league pitcher Brandon Weeden. Weeden completed over 70% of his passes this year, threw for 4328 yards and had 34 TD versus 12 INT. He will be throwing the ball to one of the best WRs in the game in Justin Blackmon. Blackmon had 113 receptions this year and went over 1000 yards receiving for the second consecutive year. The Cowboys also have a good tandem at RB in Joseph Randle (1193 yds rushing, 38 receptions, 23 rushing TD) and Jeremy Smith (645 yards rushing, 9 rushing TD). The only offenses that Stanford has seen that are remotely as productive as Oklahoma State are USC and Oregon and Stanford split those games giving up an average of 50.5 points per game.

Stanford Cardinal (11-1, 8-1 in Pac-12)

Most Impressive Victory: 56-48 at USC (Oct 29th)

Worst Loss: 53-30 vs Oregon (Nov 12th)

Notable Alumni: John Elway, Herbert Hoover, John F Kennedy, Ted Koppel, Jack Palance, Jim Plunkett, Sally Ride, Fred Savage, Sigourney Weaver, Tiger Woods

Stanford went 2-1 in games played against Top 25 foes (USC wasn’t ranked at time of victory but Washington was) with their loss coming at the hands of the Oregon Ducks. Against bowl teams, Stanford went 4-1.

When Stanford has the ball everybody knows it’s Andrew Luck’s show. If you are reading this then you know who he is and I’m not going to get in depth in his stats. He’s one of the best college QBs in the game. Unfortunately for him, WR Chris Owusu will not play in this game. In a bit of good news, Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo should play so Stanford will be able to use it’s three tight-end package. While Andrew Luck is Stanford’s best player, they are still a running team at heart as they run the ball 55% of the time.

The key for Stanford in this game is going to be running the football and keeping Oklahoma State’s offense off the field and out of rhythm (Stanford is 9th in the Nation in time of possession). Stephan Taylor ran for over 1000 yards but didn’t have as much success towards the end of the season when Stanford’s TE depth got hurt and the competition rose (99.5 ypg and 6.2 ypc in first 7 games versus 91.2 ypg and 4.7 ypc in last 5 games). Stephan Taylor might be the lynch pin of this game. If he can have a very productive game, he could be what Stanford needs to get them over the top.

THE PICK:

Kevin: Stanford should be able to run the ball and Oklahoma State should be able to move the ball up and down the field on Stanford. The best two offenses Stanford has played scored 48 and 53 points against them (yes the 48 was in triple OT). I think this one is going to be a close game but it’s going to be a high scoring one that will probably come down the last possession. I expect Oklahoma State to play with purpose in this game (like they did against Oklahoma) and I think they will out shoot Stanford.

Oklahoma State 41 Stanford 34