Welcome to my début here at The Union Blue. To those who followed me from Ten Minute Misconduct and The Hockey Writers — a big thanks — both of you. (I’ll still be chipping in with a guest article at THW from time to time, but The Union Blue is home.) To those just discovering my writing, strap in. I’m not shy about expressing opinions, digging deep into issues and counseling patience and perspective when the gut reaction is to panic. Thanks to all of my colleagues here for swallowing hard and allowing me to use of space on the site. Enough of that — on to the topic at hand.We’re just about 50 hours from the NHL Entry Draft, and just a week away from the beginning of free agency. The compressed timeline — brought to you by your friends at the NHL and NHLPA — will make the next ten days a tense and action-filled time. As Jarmo Kekalainen and John Davidson have been preaching for the past month — the options are wide open. That makes this both a time of peril and opportunity for the Blue Jackets at a lot of levels. While much of the focus is on the draft itself, and the three first round picks the Blue Jackets have stockpiled, I’ll leave the discussion of the draft prospects to my colleague @CBJProspects, who eats, sleeps and lives with that data. Instead, I want to focus on the other side of the equation — the trade and free agency prospects — made all the more intriguing this season by the advent of the compliance buyout.
The Art of the Deal
Why focus on the trade/FA prospects? A few reasons. First, the Blue Jackets are already the youngest team in the NHL (again), and while some might argue that the depth of the prospect pool is thinning a bit, I’m of the view that it is deep enough to augment with a single first rounder and the other picks already in hand and likely to be acquired.
Secondly, the draft is a highly risky process, where success is the exception, not the rule. A couple of years ago, I did an analysis of the first three rounds of the draft over a decade, to see what kind of return teams were getting on their picks. (If interested, you can find it here: Part I Part II). The cruel fact is that the vast majority of drafted players never see a second of NHL ice time, and even among the first round picks, the level of participation drops dramatically as you move out of the top ten. So, with that in mind, if you have a wealth of assets and you want to convert those into greater value, do you chance it on the youngsters or go after some proven talent? While the reality will undoubtedly be that both will occur, my money is on the proven talent.
Finally, while the draft this year is deep, the opportunities on the deal front are similarly unique, again due to the morass created by the lockout and its aftermath. With a significant drop in the salary cap, teams are scrambling to move assets in any way they can, and the compliance buyout process enables some teams to remove the albatross — in the form of some ludicrous contracts — from around their necks. Teams needing to move bodies to get below the cap are acting under duress, and that means bargains can be had. Similarly, guys on the receiving end of the compliance buyout phenomenon may well be very interested in teams that express genuine interest, and with the buyout money in hand, don’t need to hold out for top dollar.
Raising the Stakes — and Defending the Net
There is no question that the Blue Jackets are coming to the table with some deep pockets. Three first round picks, and four choices in the first 44. They have no truly awful contracts that they are compelled to move, and have just over $15 million in cap space, with just five roster spots to fill against that cap. They have some intriguing youngsters — and a couple of veterans — that could bring value in return. In short, Columbus has the stacks of chips to stare anybody down. Now they simply need some cards to play with, and the wiles to pick of the opposing players one by one.
Of course, the elephant in the room– and the greatest threat to the pile of chips — is the Sergei Bobrovsky situation, which I discuss at some length here. The Blue Jackets — up to a point — would rather devote some of that cap space cash to Bobrovsky, rather than expend chips in the form of top picks and existing players to obtain starting goaltending on the open market. Keep in mind that there is currently only one goaltender under contract on the NHL squad, and that is Curtis McElhinney. In the final analysis, the Bobrovsky situation is fairly simple. If he wants to take the presumptive big payday in the KHL, there is nothing the Blue Jackets can do to stop him. If SKA St. Petersburg has, in fact, offered $10 million per season, no way that Columbus could or should match that, particularly premised upon what amounts to a half season of play.
My gut tells me that Bobrovsky will be back, with a two-year deal and an option for a third. That would enable Bobrovsky to
demonstrate that he is the real deal, minimize the term risk for the Blue Jackets, and allow the club to use the assets it has this year to put more bricks in that virtual wall that John Davidson alludes to. The implied promise, of course, is that continued excellence will bring a bigger payday in just two years. Bobrovsky is very young by NHL goalie standards, and Kekalainen desperately needs to avoid making the same mistakes that Garth Snow and Paul Holmgren have made in their goalie signings. My guess is a cap hit of $4.5 million or so, but that is only a guess. Of course, if Bobrovsky bolts, then the landscape changes. While rumors of efforts to talk Kiprusoff out of retirement may or may not be true, I don’t think that’s the direction the club moves. With Vancouver suggesting that Luongo is back on the market, I would expect the Blue Jackets to be very much in that trade hunt. Crazy, you say? Not so much. At age 34, Luongo remains a helluva goaltender, despite his periodic meltdowns in the playoffs. In the worst imaginable situation in Vancouver last season, he still managed to have a winning record and a decent, if not spectacular, goals against average. His $5.33 million cap hit is easily manageable, particularly considering what Bobrovsky is likely to earn. Vancouver would be motivated to move him, given their cap issues, and the most likely suitor — Toronto — has already pulled the trigger by bringing in Jonathan Bernier. Also keep in mind that the Blue Jackets retain both of their compliance buyouts, which could be used if things don’t work out. Still think it’s crazy?
If not Luongo, then there are a number of other avenues that Kekalainen can pursue. Rumor has Buffalo willing to consider parting with Ryan Miller, who might be enticed to move a few hours down the road. Mike Smith, Jonas Hiller, Jaroslav Halak, Brian Elliott and James Reimer might all be in play as well. If the Blue Jackets are daring, they could even drop an offer sheet on Tuukka Rask, though that falls well short of likely. The problem, of course, is that such acquisitions will consume some of those stacks of chips, which make the clubs other goals more difficult to attain.
Adding Some Bricks . . . and Removing Some Others
Davidson and Kekalainen are committed to building the club for the long haul, and Jarmo has even dusted off the “If Wayne Gretzky was traded, nobody is untouchable” premise as we head into the weekend. So, how does that translate into concrete action?
First, there is little question that a top priority is scoring. The Blue Jackets finished 24th in the NHL in scoring this year, though they were at a better pace over the last half of the season. Having a fully healthy Marian Gaborik for a full season should add a boost, and Boone Jenner should bring some punch at a sub-million dollar cap hit. Having a healthy Cam Atkinson for a full season will boost production as well. Still, some veteran scoring punch is needed, and speculation about who might come in this direction via trade is functionally useless, since the possibilities are enormous. However, Vancouver, Philadelphia, Minnesota, San Jose, Los Angeles and Carolina have in the vicinity of $1 million or less in cap space available per vacant position, and that is not much to work with.
In addition, the free agent market has become more intriguing , due to the compliance buyouts. With Vinny LeCavalier joining the ranks of the lucratively unemployed, and with some solid hockey left in him, he might be willing to prove something at a comparative bargain. Boston will be struggling to hold on to Nathan Horton, and his style of game seems to fit nicely with the direction the club is headed. Pittsburgh might have issues keeping Pascal Dupuis, and an offer sheet for Tyler Kennedy could also be an intriguing play. At the end of the day, however, I’d expect at least two new veteran scorers to make their appearance on the roster this fall. I also think these bricks need to be in place — or not — before the club makes a final decision on Prospal. Vinny is terrific on many levels, but the whole value equation comes into play here. True, he led the club in scoring, but he also dragged up and down the ice as the season progressed. Kekalainen has to assess the available the cost/benefit of the other available talent, particularly given the age factor.
Along the blue line, and subject to the possible movements discussed below, the only addition that seems likely is a replacement for Adrian Aucoin. Andrew Ference presents an intriguing possibility here. Jettisoned by the Bruins at age 34, he likely has two or three productive years remaining, and could serve as a good insurance policy for the defensive corps. While a backup goalie is needed, that should not be a difficult or costly acquisition.
Of course, you need to break some eggs to make an omelet, so there are some assets that are going to likely move in the other direction. Who might that be? Well, it’s ultimately anybody’s guess, as the “tradeable asset” calculation is more mystical than scientific, and largely defies description. It has to be a guy who has some value and interest to others — but not too much value or interest, as he would not be moved otherwise. He has to be a bit pricey and/or be filling a role on his existing club that can be better filled by someone cheaper and/or better.
In my view, there are likely four guys who potentially meet that description for the Blue Jackets at this point in time. They are, in no particular order, R.J. Umberger, James Wisniewski, Nikita Nikitin and Derek MacKenzie. There is a fifth “dark horse” candidate, as well — Ryan Johansen. Before you grab the torches and pitchforks to come after me, I am not saying that any or all of these players will be traded, merely that they fit the general characterization of players who are susceptible to be dealt.
Umberger is a local fan favorite, due to his blue-collar approach and OSU connections. However, reality must come into the picture. He is a turnover machine who has not worked on or improved his skills, and is unlikely to get better at the age of 31. With $18.4 million heading his way over the next four years, this is the time to move him, likely as part of a package.
Wisniewski may be a surprise to some, but with $22 million coming over the next four seasons, the Blue Jackets have to be looking hard at the fact that he has played in just 78 of the 130 possible regular season games since joining the club, and is 11-30-41 over that stretch. Not awful for the number of games played, but the effective rate for his services at that pace is $11 million per season. Not a bargain. Teams are aching for defense, and at age 29, he could still garner a good return from a club with some offensive assets and at least one buyout available. In truth, I think Wisniewski will be given one more season to show his stuff, but if a big offer came along, they would have to think hard about it.
Nikitin disappointed last year after a brilliant début with the Blue Jackets and taking the club to the brink of arbitration for his $2.15 million contract. He is an unrestricted free agent next year, so the temptation to realize some value for him now might be irresistible, particularly if Ryan Murray emerges, Erixon and Goloubef continue to progress, and somebody like Ference comes into the fold. Young defense will attract some return. DMac presents a similar scenario, just with lesser return. He only costs $1 million, but is entering is free agent year as well. I just don’t see the organization going further with him at age 32. They might be better served by sewing up the 27-year-old Blake Comeau, who showed some game in his late season stint with the club. MacKenzie could bring some value now, at least as part of a package.
Finally, we come to Johansen. Again, is his trade likely? Probably not. But one thing that has become apparent is that players who Todd Richards does not care for do not stick around long. See — Brassard, Derick & Moore, John. Richards has been frustrated with Johansen, and there might be a bit of a tussle between the coach and the front office over this one. I like Richards, but he has a tendency to try to turn thoroughbreds into plow horses. He’s getting better in that regard, but it’s still a trend, and Johansen might fall victim. Mind you, the club would command a huge return for him, but don’t fall off your bar stool if it happens.
At the end of the day this is all speculation, but unless you’re in the War Room fielding the calls, you don’t know. Besides, speculation is half the fun this time of year! Don’t be surprised, however, if one or two of those first round picks end up in trades for established talent. I’m betting on it.
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