Nobody likes going to the dentist. So if you just had a root canal or have one coming soon, I’d advise you to skip ahead a few paragraphs. The following few aren’t exactly a stroll through a childhood trip to Disneyland.
Do you remember a time when the Indians had one player lead the team in games played at first base three years in a row? You’d have to go back to Ryan Garko from 2007-2009. If Carlos Santana can do it in 2016, which might be unlikely if Mike Napoli’s track record follows him, he’d be the first since then.
Other Indians that have played first base since Garko was the unquestioned starter for that 2 ½ year stretch? Victor Martinez spent some time there. Once he was traded it was a black hole of Michael Aubrey, Andy Marte, Chris Gimenez (in 2009 and again, painfully, in 2014), Matt LaPorta, Andy Gonzalez, Niuman Romero, Mark DeRosa, Russell Branyan, Jordan Brown, Jack Hannahan, Casey Kotchman, Russ Canzler, Jose Lopez, Nick Swisher, Mark Reynolds, Jesus Aguilar, Brandon Moss and Jerry Sands.
Do you feel your teeth being drilled yet?
So it stands to reason that the player with the most volatility in opinion among Cleveland fan is the same one that has arguably been the most stable one in six years.
If you go on twitter and search for Carlos Santana, you’ll get opinions on him that range from undervalued to ‘cut the bum now’. You’d probably find more praise for the guitarist. He may not get the bulk of the playing time at first base this season, but Santana is in a potential walk year. The Indians hold a $12M club option on him for 2017. It seems unlikely they’ll pick that up and give him the $1.2 million buyout.
Santana has hit at least 18 home runs in his five seasons with the Indians, where he’s played over 143 games in those five years. It seems hard to believe that a player with 804 games played over a six year career, whose 162 game averages are .245/.365/.433, 24 homers, 85 RBI, 34 doubles and an OPS+ of 122 could be considered a bum or underrated. Any team that doesn’t employ Paul Goldschmidt, Miguel Cabrera or Anthony Rizzo at first base would sign up for those numbers. In his walk year and age 30 season, ZiPS has Santana coming in at .244/.365/.433, 21 homers, 81 RBI and a 121 wRC+ as the DH or first baseman.
Speaking of consistency, Napoli has six 20 homer seasons, double digit home runs in every big league season (10 of them) and 17 or more every year since 2008. His career on-base percentage mark is also .355. He’s also been in two World Series’ and won one of them. Defense has also been a plus for Napoli. Since converting to first base he has a .993 fielding percentage in just under 4,000 innings.
Yes, he’ll be 34 this season and is coming off the worst season in his career. There’s a reason he was a free agent, that the Indians were able to get him on a one year deal and that he was traded last season. Napoli also had a complicated (and painful) sleep apnea surgery done on his jaw to help his sleeping problems. He says it took him until the second half to finally adjust to his jaw alignment and the effects of that surgery. That might explain his .207/.307/.386 13 homer line in Boston compared to his .295/.396/.513 five homers in 35 games with Texas after he was traded.
Terry Francona will have the ability to DH him to keep him healthy and use Santana at first. What both Santana and Napoli have accomplished in their big league careers is a well above average level of success and consistency over a season of that level. For the first time since 2007 (save 2013 thanks to Mark Reynolds’ ridiculous April), the Indians should have a pretty potent tandem at first base/DH.
Beyond Santana and Napoli, things are more likely to be shifted around at first base than getting much help from the farm system. Should something go wrong with either Santana or Napoli, you could see Lonnie Chisenhall take some reps at first base or maybe even Zach Walters. The Indians have seemingly given up on Aguilar ever attempting to get some footing in the majors. He’s had good AAA numbers, albeit in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the International League. Unfortunately, many scouting reports say that Aguilar lacks the bat speed to catch up to major league fastballs with power or identify the breaking ball.
Behind Aguilar, Erik Gonzalez has played some first base, seems to be having a nice spring and played well in the International League playoffs last season. Nellie Rodriguez had a breakout year at Advanced-A Lynchburg and reached AA Akron for the playoffs. Bobby Bradley has a little more star potential. He pummeled and tore through the Midwest League with Low-A Lake County last season as a teenager with 27 homers and a .529 slugging percentage. He does have some swing and miss in his game and teams did try to employ shifts on him.
Third base hasn’t exactly been a storied position for the Indians since Casey Blake was traded for Santana (a tad ironic). Chisenhall never could claim it and Santana spent a year trying to prove he could fill in there, too. Hannahan seems like the most recent stabilizer of the position which is why Juan Uribe was signed.
Of course everyone wants to know why the Indians are paying a 36 year old who played 119 games for three teams last year, to play third base. Well, Giovanny Urshela only has slightly over 500 at bats at the AAA level and could benefit from another half season at least there. AA and AAA aren’t the easiest levels to adjust to. Defensively, there’s no question that Urshela is ready for third base at the Major League level. It’s also only fair to remember he was dealing with a shoulder injury most of the time he was up with the Indians last season, which may have contributed to his struggles. One thing about Urshela is that he’s always lacked patience. While he doesn’t strike out a lot, he doesn’t walk a lot either. He puts the ball in play because of his great contact skills. Unfortunately that leads to weak contact often and he rolls over on a lot of pitches or doesn’t do much with them. The Indians asked him last year to work on pitch selection and he did. He had a career high in walks at the minor league level. A little more can’t hurt. He will be up and get some at bats at some point this year.
Back to Uribe, who hit .272/.350/.543 last year against left handed pitching, where he had 40 at bats with the Mets down the stretch against lefties. If the Indians can get that out of Uribe in a little something over 100 games in 2016, that’s exactly what they’ll have hoped for when signing him. It also doesn’t hurt that Uribe has been on three World Series winning teams and been to the playoffs six times. Expect Jose Ramirez to get plenty of at bats at third base as well, possible against right handed hitters. Uribe can still handle the fastball as he showed by hitting .269 or above on fastball’s 90 MPH and harder last year.
Beyond Uribe and Ramirez, it’s likely Urshela will see major league time again this year at some point. Chisenhall could probably fill in or see time depending on how the outfield situation plays out throughout the year. Walters could see time if an injury comes up, but he also has to stay healthy and catch up on his lost time from last season. Before the Indians commit to giving him any significant major league at bats, he’ll of course need to improve his contact rate.
Gonzalez also has time at third base throughout his minor league career and could be an option. Among longer term answers, but maybe not in 2016, is Yandy Diaz. He led the Eastern League in on-base percentage a year ago at .412 and fourth in OPS. In 778 minor league at bats over two seasons, he has 127 walks compared to 105 strikeouts. However, he only has 41 extra base hits and a slugging percentage of .389. Power hasn’t been Diaz’s forte despite a strong 6-foot-2, 185 lb build. However, he did post a .471 slugging percentage after the all-star break in 170 at bats at Akron, including five of his seven homers last year. As is, Diaz has bat to ball skills, on base skills, above average defense that’s probably a tick below Urshela and a bit of speed. That’s good enough to make him a solid major league starter. If he adds any more power, you have an above average third base prospect who has shown development very quickly since come over from Cuba.
Bottom line: The Indians have a little more stability at the corners in 2016 and should know what to expect production wise from those spots. Between Rodriguez and Bradley, the Indians should find a long term future answer and first. Either Urshela or Diaz would answer the bell at third after 2016.
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