No single event during the baseball season has more of an effect on a franchise than the amateur June draft. While dynamic players can be added through free agency and the international market, immediately gaining 30-40 new players who only have two choices, sign or wait until the next year’s draft, makes up the bulk of any farm system.
To begin the draft, the current state of the organization isn’t particularly relevant. Most players take about five or six years to make it to the Majors at best and there is no way to predict who will make up the team at that point. Yes, the bullpen is a weakness right now and will likely be for the next two to three years without major upgrades, unless there is a college educated, Chris Sale type who could be drafted and immediately implemented in the bullpen, that’s not relevant. Even if there is (I’m not going to pretend to know much about the upcoming draft class as my expertise is with those players currently within the system), the Indians have been extremely tentative in pushing them straight to the Majors. Even the quickest promotions in recent years, Kyle Crockett and Cody Allen, spent at least one season in the minors.
Because of this, the Indians picks at 29, 35 (for Carlos Santana) and 41 (for competitive balance) are likely to be used on whomever is the top talent available at the time, irrelevant of organizational need. After that, however, the Indians will likely look to use the later rounds to fill some of the gaping holes in the farm system.
In the past few years, this has definitely been the case. Among pitchers, there has been a notable trend toward college players, particularly those who are consistent strike throwers without as much emphasis on velocity. Among hitters, they have gone for speed, defense and launch angle sluggers, not focusing on plate discipline as they hope for an elite power bat. We won’t know for a few years how successful these strategies have been for a few years, but some players have already begun to stand out, like Shane Bieber from 2016 and Eli Morgan from 2017, both four year college pitchers. The effect on offense has been noticeable in Arizona and Mahoning Valley as well as strike outs are up, but so is the speed (particularly in non-speed positions like Michael Cooper at 1B and Will Benson in RF).
Another aspect of draft selection is that position doesn’t really matter. The vast majority of position players drafted are up the middle players (C, SS, 2B or CF) and are immediately moved once drafted. This extends to those drafted beyond those positions as a trickle down effect. For example, Nolan Jones was drafted as a short stop, but moved to third base (for good reason). At the same time, Ulysses Cantu was drafted at 3B, but with Jones playing there, was moved to first. In the upper minors, the Rubberducks are currently starting three second basemen, Mark Mathias at 2B, Sam Haggerty at 3B and Tyler Krieger in LF. High school or college position doesn’t matter as much as athletic ability.
With all that in mind, there is a specific type of player I think the Indians should be looking out for in the later rounds. After watching the AZL Indians go 26-58 over the last year and a half, the most obviously aspect of the team is someone who can get on base with regularity. They have had power, speed and decent defense (sporadically), but power and speed are made so much more valuable when someone is on base. While some of this is because college players generally go directly to Mahoning Valley, a high walk rate was not a feature of that club either with only Nolan Jones posting an exception OBP.
While these players may not have quite the ceiling of a Will Benson or Oscar Gonzalez, the Indians already have plenty of high ceiling, low floor players. Just as the goal in recent years with starting pitching has been to grab up the high floor, low ceiling college pitchers, the goal with hitters should be the same. Especially picking 29th in every round, the extremely high ceiling players will likely not even be available. Instead of taking second rate players with potential, the focus should be on players who are already fairly developed, more of a Carlos Santana than Edwin Encarnacion.
The increase in strike outs and home runs in recent seasons has placed an increased emphasis on home runs and that has been apparent in the last few drafts, just like how the Indians placed an increased emphasis on defense following historically bad seasons defensively from 2010 through 2014 when the pitcher revolution was occurring. The current situation seems to leave an opening for often ignored players, those who aren’t afraid to take a walk and those who are early count swingers, extremely adept at making contact. Players don’t need to do both to be successful, but having players who can do one or the other would go a long way to off-set the Indians all-or-nothing approach in the low minors.
In addition, the balance should probably favor position players over pitchers based on the those players coming up from the 2017 Dominican Summer League teams. While the Major League squad may be hurting for relief help, there are plenty of interesting pitchers below A ball including some who have yet to pitch in the US. These pitchers will already be joining the AZL team in a similar situation to the 2018 draft picks, but the offensive performers coming up from the DSL are no where near as quality. This is not to say there aren’t any (there are above five new short stops scheduled to hit AZL worth watching this year), but overall, the lower minors are definitely looking to be more pitching dominant and could use some offensive back-up.
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