Tribe Targets: Kendrys Morales

The rumors are starting up again and with Chase Headley apparently off the table, the Indians have lowered their standards to a familiar name, former Mariner, Twin, Mariner and Angel Kendrys Morales. Morales was one of the qualifying offer pariahs last season, as after he declined the Mariners qualifying offer of more than $11M for 2014, he was unable to get a deal with another team until late in the season, costing himself not just four million for the 2014 season, but half a season of playing time, meaning he was unable to earn a qualifying offer going into this off-season. This also means that signing him will not cost his new team a draft pick, making him more signable, while his poor and short 2014 mean he will be signing for a considerable cut in pay.

While this rumor appears to be more legitimate than some, there is serious cause for concern. The first of which is Nick Swisher. As his age and injuries progress, Swisher is becoming less and less capable of playing the field, a similarity he has with Morales. Last season, the Indians started the year with both Swisher and Jason Giambi, but Swisher was slated to be the starting third baseman with Carlos Santana at third/DH and Lonnie Chisenhall as more of a utility man. In 2015, Chisenhall will start at third (barring any other additions), Santana at first and Swisher at DH. Without any other changes to the roster, the addition of Morales would essentially give the Indians a platoon at DH with two batters who hit below .220 last season, one of whom is a switch hitter.

With the basic idea that it would be irresponsible to add Morales to a lineup that already contains Swisher, it can be assumed that the only way Morales, or a batter like him, would be added would be if Swisher were traded. While the Indians are looking for options in moving Swisher, this will undoubtedly be difficult and this brings up another question, if Morales is going to be so much more valuable than Swisher that it would be worth the cost. to the right, the players stats from 2014 are shown in addition to their ages and salaries for 2015. Morales salary numbers are completely speculative and include the lowest possible range that he would be willing to sign for (a $5M, one year deal) and the highest the Indians would be likely to spend ($30M over three years). Assuming the Indians would still have to pay the majority of Swisher’s salary or would be replacing him with a similar salary (like Ubaldo Jimenez), another $15M per year for the next two seasons of whatever Morales signs for.

Right now, the Indians have a switch hitting DH worth one less win than the average replacement player at a cost of $15M per season for two years. If he were to be removed from the roster and Morales added, they would have a right handed DH worth one less win than the average replacement player at a cost of his own salary plus Swisher’s. Assuming both continue playing as they did in 2014, signing Morales would essentially cost the Indians twice as much for the exact same player.

Making a series of moves like this would be a tremendous risk and the Indians wouldn’t be considering it if they expected each player to produce at their 2014 levels. Below are the numbers from each players best recent season:

While Swisher is a few years older, they still looked like almost the exact same player when they were both about 30 years old. In general, baseball players don’t improve after the age of 29 (they generally maintain for a few years, then begin to decrease in production), so the numbers shown above should be considered the absolute ceiling for a full, injury free season from either DH.

With all that on the table, this is a case where it is better to go with the devil you know than the one you don’t. At the same price, Morales may be a slightly better candidate for a comeback year (Morales

had a .222 BABIP in 2014 compared to Swisher’s .273), but the fact that Swisher is still under contract makes the risk not worth taking. While dealing Swisher should still be a prime goal this off-season, the Indians would be much better off attempting to replace him either in the trade (such as the one postulated for the Upton brothers of Atlanta) or internally with a player like Zach Walters. The final evidence is in the small chart to the right which shows each players rates for the 2014 season. Somehow, both Morales and Swisher had exactly 401 plate appearance and eight home runs, but despite low averages across the board, Walters showed an incredible talent for hitting balls far, while walking just a little less often and striking out a little more. Considering that he just turned 25 and and can be paid the league minimum over the next three seasons, it is hard to argue that the Indians would be better off by increasing the pay-roll by adding old and injured players who can’t play in the field.