For the first time in years, the Cleveland Indians have an obvious position at the trade deadline. With the best record by a wide margin in the AL Central, Cleveland appears to be primed to make a deep playoff run in 2016. Like any team serious about contending, the Indians will most certainly look to add talent to their MLB roster in order to give themselves the best chance at winning the World Series.
So where should the Indians look to improve? Naturally, the bullpen is an area that could use an upgrade. Luckily, the reliever market looks to be plentiful, and the Indians should have no trouble bolstering their roster in that area. Bullpen aside, as well as Cleveland has played offensively in the first half of 2016 (10th in MLB in runs per game), it would be naïve to stand pat and hope nothing goes awry in the second half.
The trouble is identifying where the lineup could be upgraded: acquiring an outfielder means one of Lonnie Chisenhall, Rajai Davis, Tyler Naquin or Jose Ramirez receive significantly less playing time. All four players have been exceptional this season and with the recent arrival of Abraham Almonte and Michael Brantley’s eventual return, acquiring an outfielder seems unnecessary.
The Indians could also look for a third basemen, but it seems likely Ramirez will receive the lion’s share of work at 3B once Brantley comes back, and with his strong play this season, paying a hefty price in prospects and/or salary for a quality third basemen seems unnecessary.
While outfield and third base have long been the most obvious needs for Cleveland, the emergence of players like Ramirez, Chisenhall, Naquin and Davis have reduced those needs greatly. Instead, there is a much more glaring area for improvement on the Indians: catcher.
While Yan Gomes played like an All-Star at catcher for the Indians in 2013 and 2014, it is tough to explain just how awful he has been in 2016. His wRC+ of 38 means he is producing runs at a 62% lower rate than the league average player. For comparison, Madison Bumgarner, a pitcher, owns a career wRC+ of 48, significantly better than Gomes this year. Further, Gomes 38 wRC+ is the worst among MLB catchers with 200 plate appearances by a whopping 36 points.
Essentially, Cleveland is giving opponents an automatic out every time Gomes comes to the plate. While his solid defense has allowed him to be essentially replacement level (-0.1 WAR) and he does have a good relationship with Cleveland’s pitchers, there is no reason the Indians shouldn’t look to upgrade from one of the worst hitters in baseball.
As it would happen, one of the best catchers in baseball, Jonathan Lucroy of the Milwaukee Brewers, is on the trading block. As a trade chip, Lucroy is very appealing: he just made his second All Star team and he is controlled through 2017 at just about $2 million more this year and $5.25 million next year. Further, Lucroy provides some positional flexibility, as he has played first base at times throughout his career.
If Lucroy were to replace Gomes in the lineup, the improvement would be massive. For context, Lucroy’s .841 OPS dwarfs Gomes’ .542 mark. Essentially, the Indians would be swapping the worst offensive catcher in baseball for one of the best. The Tribe wouldn’t lose anything on defense by plugging Lucroy in at catcher either. This season, Lucroy has thrown out 39% percent of base stealers compared to Gomes’ 37% rate. Meanwhile, Gomes been poor this year in terms of pitch framing, at -3.8 runs above average, while Lucroy has been strong, at 7.1 runs above average.
By acquiring Lucroy, the Indians could use of one Gomes’ two remaining options and help him find his swing at AAA. When Roberto Perez returns from the DL, the Indians’ two catching options would be light years ahead of the current combination of Gomes and Chris Gimenez in terms of production. While switching catchers mid-season isn’t ideal for the pitching staff, it seems likely that the pitchers would happily work with an incoming All-Star as they prepare for a playoff run. Looking towards next year, if Gomes can regain his form, Lucroy could move to first base to replace the departing Mike Napoli.
Naturally, as an All Star with 1.5 years left of control at a low salary, Lucroy won’t come cheap in a trade. Conversations usually start with pitchers, and the Indians would likely have to part with someone like Mike Clevinger and/or Justus Sheffield, as a starting point in a deal. While it isn’t ideal to give up young talent, the improvement and insurance Lucroy would provide to the Indians’ lineup could be the difference between a potential championship and an early playoff exit this year and next.
No doubt it is much easier to suggest demoting Gomes and trading for Lucroy on paper than in reality, but at this point, Gomes’ struggles are surely impacting his confidence. Continuing to play him in high leverage situations could put the nail in his career’s proverbial coffin. Rather than worrying about the pitchers’ chemistry with a new catcher, the Indians front office should trust both the players and coaches to make it work. It may be a risk, but it is outweighed by the potential reward of massive improvement in the Indians’ everyday lineup.
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