Just in case you forgot, here is the 2014 AAC preseason football media poll formulated during Summer Media Days:
- Cincinnati
- UCF
- Houston
- East Carolina
- SMU
- South Florida
- Memphis
- Temple
- UConn,
- Tulane (tied for ninth)
- Tulsa
Obviously the preseason media poll is substantially flawed. For one, SMU is clearly not the fifth-best team in the conference; it’s probably not the fifth-best team in most FCS conferences. Temple and Memphis are much better and ECU is the clear No. 1, not No. 4, in the AAC.
But, that No. 11 in front of Tulsa’s name doesn’t look so farfetched–even with SMU’s ineptitude.
USAToday sports writer Paul Myerberg previewed the Golden Hurricane’s upcoming season back in June and, surprisingly, was very accurate in his assessment of the team. Since I don’t have direct access to the writers who made up the votes in the AAC preseason poll, I’ll use Myerberg’s preview to examine why Tulsa was projected as the AAC’s worst team in the preseason and why it’s on the path to reach the media’s low expectations.
Let’s breakdown a few points from Myerberg’s preseason outlook for Tulsa’s 2014 season:
“Depending on whether Tulsa wants to continue its by-committee approach – and here’s guessing it will – Dickerson will share carries with junior Zack Langer and sophomore James Flanders. But given the nature of this pounding, run-heavy offense, that Dickerson and Langer have been slowed by injuries is a massive concern.”
Myerberg’s prediction for the Golden Hurricane backfield was downright scary accurate; where does he keep the crystal ball?
The running game has accurately followed the by-committee approach with Dickerson, Langer and Flanders each receiving 20 or more carries. Flanders (265 yards on 57 attempts) and Langer (223 yards on 49 attempts) have virtually identical numbers, but coach Blankenship told Tulsa World this week that Langer has earned the starting role against Temple after showing promise in the loss to Colorado State (16-for-72 yards). Langer also leads all Tulsa RBs with two touchdowns.
Both Dickerson and Langer accurately (it’s scary, right?) missed a game this season, which forced coaches to reluctantly put more emphasis on quarterback Dane Evans and the passing game. Tulsa should prove better on the ground if Langer stays healthy (he also had 82 yards against Texas State), but Langer’s injury combined with poor run-blocking by the O-Line vastly affected where coaches wanted to go with the offense this season.
“Evans may have been pinpointed as the starter coming out of last fall, but that was only by default. Keep an eye on the pair as the summer progresses, watch how Blankenship and this staff divvy up first-team spans in August and cross your fingers that one of the two brings more productivity to the table, but let’s be honest: TU has two quarterbacks, yeah, but I wouldn’t feel overly comfortable running an offense through either option.”
Tulsa starting QB Dane Evans is the epitome of average through Week 6 (1,367 passing yards, 54.7 completion percentage, nine touchdowns to nine interceptions). Myerberg said in his preview that he wouldn’t trust Evans or the backup behind center. It seems the Tulsa coaching staff has absolutely no confidence in backup QB Joseph Calcagni, considering he’s only thrown 16 passes on the year.
Evans flashed potential in Tulsa’s Week 1 double-overtime win against Tulane (438 yards, four TDs), but his stats have digressed considerably since opening week. In the Golden Hurricane’s four-straight losses, Evans has thrown only five touchdowns to seven interceptions; stats that normally get a quarterback benched. Tulsa coaches have nowhere to go but to stick with the sophomore Evans and hope he shows improvement.
The quarterback is a team’s most important position. Instability and lack of depth at the position contributed to the Golden Hurricane’s low outside expectations for 2014.
“Oh, but this defense is promising. I like the depth and experience up front; the line should rebound after a down year, though I still imagine Tulsa needing to bring pressure from the second level to create an adequate pass rush. Jackson’s departure does leave a void at linebacker, but Nelson’s return effectively sews up the back seven.”
Mr. Myerberg, you were as accurate as the lady from Long Island Medium before this–too kind–prediction for the Golden Hurricane defense.
Tulsa is ninth in the AAC in total defense, surrendering over 500 yards per game, and 7.4 yards per attempt. The secondary thought to be a strength coming into the year has been a disaster. Tulsa has given up a staggering 18 passing plays of 20 or more yards (SMU has only given up more in the AAC), none were as costly as the 25-yard pass play Texas State made against the Golden Hurricane in overtime that set up the Bobcats’ game winning touchdown.
Senior safty DeMarco Nelson has played well this season (20 solo tackles, 5.0 tackles per game), but the defensive leader has recorded only one interception. One INT is better than a slew of defensive backs around the country. However, when a defense is connected to an offense that likes to cough up the ball, the D must compensate for the O’s lack of effectiveness and get more takeaways. Tulsa’s defense, as a unit, has struggled to keep teams off the field or force turnovers.
What was Myerberg’s season outlook:
Dream season: Tulsa’s offense rebounds during a nine-win regular season. Tulsa finishes second in the American.Nightmare season: Another three-win season leads to a painful coaching change.
Myerberg technically wasn’t wrong with his Tulsa prediction because he gave fans a view into both a dream season for the football team and a nightmarish one. The Golden Hurricane are clearly in a nightmare they don’t appear to be waking up from in 2014.
Coach Bill Blankenship–if Myerberg’s prophecy holds true–is out after the season.
If SMU didn’t resemble the post-death penalty team from the late ’80s, Tulsa would be closer to actually being the AAC’s worst team. Who knows, maybe Tulsa will exceed expectations and send Blankenship out as coach of the AAC’s second-worst team—a 1-11 finish will likely seal the deal.
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