Due to a number of crafty moves, Portland may be set up to rebound faster than expected
The San Antonio Spurs are held up as the poster child for a successful NBA franchise, and it’s hard to argue with that label. The Spurs have won five NBA titles since the 1997-98 season, tied with the Los Angeles Lakers for the most over that span. Over that same span of time, the Spurs have never missed the playoffs, and have won at least 50 games in every season but the strike-shortened 1998-99 (and they won games at a 60-win pace and went 15-2 in the playoffs to hoist their first trophy). Tim Duncan is widely looked to as the greatest power forward of all time, Tony Parker is in the mix for the greatest international player of all time, and 221 coaches have been hired since Gregg Popovich first became coach in 1996-97. Their run of success stretches back even further than Popovich, with the arrival of David “The Admiral” Robinson in 1989.
In fact, the Spurs have only missed the playoffs once since 1989 – in 1996-97, when a David Robinson injury doomed the Spurs’ season; the big man would play in only six games that season. San Antonio elected to bottom out for the year, firing their coach and trading key veterans en route to finishing with a 20-62 record. That “tanking” put them in position to win the lottery, and with it, the right to draft a young man from Wake Forest named Tim Duncan. The Spurs never looked back, winning 56 games the next year and a title the next. Their stint in the rebuilding phase was incredibly short.
This year the Portland Trailblazers find themselves in a similar situation of losing their best player – only they lost Aldridge permanently after he signed with those San Antonio Spurs this past summer. Portland also lost Wesley Matthews and Robin Lopez to Dallas and New York respectively, and traded Nic Batum to the Charlotte Hornets for younger pieces. Replacing four of five starters has led to a drop-off for the Blazers, and they are currently fighting with Sacramento and Utah for the final seed in the West.
A number of options hang before Portland, a variety of roads they could travel down in hopes of reaching the Golden City of an NBA Championship. One such road is bottoming out for this season while preparing themselves to jump back into the playoffs next year; the approach those late-90s Spurs took under the direction of Popovich. Another is to continue fighting for success, riding the hot shooting of Lillard and 2016 breakout star CJ McCollum to hopefully make the playoffs as the seventh or eighth seed. A final route would be to finish the tear-down and spend a few years in the lottery re-stocking the roster with young talent.
Which road is the best option? For many teams I have recommended the slow game, but Portland has put themselves in a unique position, and perhaps that necessitates a unique plan of attack.
How Things Stand
The center of Portland’s roster is Damian Lillard, also known as Steph-lite, All-Star Snub, and the #1 in the McLillard combo. The diminutive yet explosive guard has thrived offensively with the departure of his running mates, ranking sixth in the league in scoring with 24.3 points per game to go along with seven assists. Alongside him, guard CJ McCollum has exploded onto the scene, ranking 16th in scoring and fourth among shooting guards with 20.7 points a game, to go with just over four assists and just under four rebounds.
At the end of last season, Portland’s frontcourt was set up to consist of promising stretch-four Meyers Leonard, and aging big Chris Kaman. Through a series of moves, including shrewd trades and bargain contracts, Portland now boasts lottery picks such as Mason Plumlee, Noah Vonleh, Al-Farouq Aminu, and Ed Davis alongside Leonard and Kaman. GM Neil Olshey bought low on a number of high-upside players, and many of them are exceeding expectations this season. Maurice Harkless and Allen Crabbe have emerged on the wing as intriguing prospects for Portland to consider as well.
For a team notorious for having an elite starting lineup consistently let down by a subpar bench, the Trailblazers have changed their identity on the fly, now boosting a roster full of young talent that is outpacing where many thought Portland would be after losing four-fifths of a strong starting lineup. Coach Terry Stotts, well-regarded around the league, has Portland standing in the eighth and final playoff spot in the Western Conference. They are one of two teams (with Philly) currently holding significant cap space, and more opens up next season with the rising cap. Their first round pick this season goes to Denver if they make the playoffs, but stays in Portland if they are a lottery team.
Steps to Take
Before giving my thoughts on how Portland should go about their path back to success, I want to express that while most teams have options before them, Portland has a number of good options. Although Wesley Matthews, Robin Lopez, and LaMarcus Aldridge all left in unrestricted free agency without any compensation coming back to the Blazers, Neil Olshey and his team managed to use their accompanying cap space to stock the cupboard with the aforementioned young, high-upside players with movable contracts. Nine of their top-ten rotation players are twenty-six or younger, and their star Lillard is locked up through 2021 with his max-level rookie extension. If the Trailblazers drop behind a few teams in the West and get a top-ten pick (or get lucky and jump into the top three) to develop into a solid player, their core is young enough to hit its stride when that player is ready. On the other hand, if Portland continues to play well and Stotts coaches them into the playoffs (thus sending their first round pick to Denver), their roster has enough talent for the loss of the pick not to hamstring them. Both are good options and could see a championship contender put together in Portland. But let’s look at my best-path option.
#1: Don’t make the playoffs, but don’t bottom out – This may seem like a fine line to walk, but I think it behooves Portland to walk it. As mentioned before, Portland loses its pick if it makes the playoffs, and while this year’s draft doesn’t seem as stocked as 2015’s, Portland wants to continue to take shots at acquiring a top-level player. With the success lower-ranked players such as Lillard, McCollum, and Wesley Matthews have had in Portland, Neil Olshey has to have confidence in his team’s ability to identify and develop talent. However, I am a strong believer that instilling a team culture to win is more important than tanking down to a basement level for a slightly higher pick, and so I would advise Portland to keep the team competitive.
#2: Carefully feel out the trade market for CJ McCollum – There is no question McCollum is a great talent, and together he and Lillard form one of the most dynamic scoring backcourts outside of Oakland. By all accounts they have great chemistry, and as a third-year player McCollum certainly has a lot of upside still to come.
But defensively this pairing has some serious issues. Neither Lillard or McCollum have the size to defend taller guards, and together they are akin to a sieve on that end. Lillard ranks 79th out of 84 point guards in defensive RPM, and McCollum is only 54th among shooting guards. Overall Portland ranks 22nd in defensive rating, pulling down their seventh ranked offense; last season Portland rested at tenth in defensive rating. It is certainly possible McCollum can develop enough on that end to tag average, and perhaps a rim protector and an elite wing defender could raise this team to a good enough defense to contend. But Lillard would ideally be paired with a taller 2-guard better able to defend on the wing and at the point of attack. Around the league, defensively-challenged point guards are paired with these sorts of shooting guards, from Tony Parker and Danny Green in San Antonio to Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert in Cleveland.
That’s not to say Portland should trade McCollum for anyone; he is a valuable young piece on a great contract. The team over at Blazer’s Edge tossed out an intriguing hypothetical Jahlil Okafor for McCollum trade. Okafor is a building block inside for a team that already has an outside star, and if Philly was so inclined with could be a real path to a second star for a team that needs at least two to compete in the West. Both Philly and Portland should have real interest in this sort of a deal. But Okafor also has serious defensive deficiencies, and it may be easier to build a rim-protecting frontcourt behind McCollum and Lillard than try to find the perfect stretch-four/rim protector to pair with Okafor.
Another trade floating around the internet is McCollum for Kevin Love. It certainly has merits – Portland would have a dynamic pick-and-roll combo in Lillard and Love, the opportunity to throw out a bigger 2-guard such as Allen Crabbe with Lillard, and would invest their money in a proven star over less than a year of McCollum’s potential stardom. It doesn’t hurt that Love grew up in Oregon either, as that state is fiercely proud of its native sons. On the opposite end, Cleveland would get another dynamic scorer who provides injury insurance if Irving goes down, lessen its luxury tax payment, and double-down on the hometown heroes – McCollum hails from nearby Canton, OH. The trade is not crazy, and if I’m Portland and that deal comes onto the table, I seriously consider it.
But other trades could be out there. If Utah finds itself too laden with young players it has to pay, it could push back the deadline and work out a trade centering around Derrick Favors for McCollum. Phoenix loves gathering guards, and perhaps they offer up a variety of picks and young players for McCollum. I don’t necessarily think Portland should trade McCollum, as he is thriving in their system and the chemistry seems great. But that pairing may have a defensive ceiling below contender-status, so if I’m Olshey I’m at least listening.
#3: Keep mining free agency and the trade market for buy-low opportunities – Signing Ed Davis to seven million a year looked like a bargain in July and does even more so now; flipping Nic Batum for Noah Vonleh and an expiring contract was buying low on a recent top-ten pick, one still bursting with upside. Olshey did the same with last year’s #23 pick, flipping it for a recent to-15 pick in Mason Plumlee along with a high second-rounder (eventually Pat Connaughton). With the cap exploding and teams throwing money at players, there will be those left out of the spending spree who can be had at a solid price.
#4: Use the combination of young players on good contracts to acquire either a high pick or a star – This part of the approach could perhaps be called the Pacific Boston plan, and the Celtics have exceeded expectations in staying successful while still amassing assets to flip into a star. The place where Portland has the leg up is they already have one of those stars on the roster in Lillard, and it’s always easier to get the second star once you have the first.
#5: Allow the current roster to find success together – Regardless of what trades or signings need to happen, the team that persists in Portland doesn’t need to be taught to lose. Allowing them to win together, including playoff losses and meaningful games, will help them grow. Lillard has proven he can lead a team in the postseason, and allowing players like Plumlee, Leonard, or Crabbe to learn alongside will be invaluable. The ceiling of this team is atmospheric; if McCollum continues to work hard and develops his defensive game, Vonleh grows into the rim protecting-three draining athletic monster he has shown potential for, and Al-Farouq Aminu fixes his outside shot, this team could play 5-out basketball that would have them in serious contention in the West. Add in the future pieces Neil Olshey is probably going to find, and Portland has a bright future. Terry Stotts is a superb coach, Lillard is a legitimate star, and this team is seriously loaded with upside. Perhaps this rebuild won’t take so long after all.
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