Intro: Worst start in franchise history, no immediate hope of a playoff berth. Rejected by free agents (Melo, LMA, Dwight). No playoff appearance in recent history. Poor trades. The Lakers are a mess right now.
Pull up off the dribble. Drive and kick. Pick and pop. Coming off a screen. Kick-out after an offensive rebound. There are a number of ways to generate a three-point shot, and some are better than others (unless you’re Steph Curry). Likewise, there are a number of ways to build a successful team. Just in the last decade:
- The Boston Celtics traded for Hall of Famers and instantly won a title.
- The Miami Heat cleared the books and signed three max-level players, then won the East four years in a row.
- The Oklahoma City Thunder nailed multiple draft picks in a row to stock up on stars.
- The San Antonio Spurs built a buy-in culture, centered a team around Tim Duncan, and proceeded to dominate the draft even having anymore top draft picks thereafter.
There’s no “best option” out there. Some teams attain success without top picks. Others accrue inexpensive talent through the draft and rise with those young players. For today’s struggling teams, the way out isn’t limited to one path. This is good, because not every team will luck out in the draft or get the star free agent. However, the problem this creates is that a team has to decide on which course of action is best for their squad.
Cue our series “Turning the Corner” where The Lottery Mafia looks at some of the worst teams in the league and gives our completely unprofessional opinion on the best path to success. Our first in the series can be found here. Today we take a look at the league’s flagship, the Los Angeles Lakers. How bad have they become since winning the title in 2010? And how do they regain the legendary status they have enjoyed for so many decades? Let’s take a look.
How Things Stand
The Los Angeles Lakers have only missed the playoffs in three consecutive seasons once: right now, at least assuming their last-place position in the West holds up. This is the worst stretch in Lakers history. While fans of Sacramento and Charlotte weep quietly to themselves that this is bad for an NBA team, the fact of the matter is that Lakertown is used to winning. And not just winning games, but winning titles. Their fans have come to expect a certain level of excellence, one that has been backed up by star after star.
And right now, they aren’t winning. Their roster is split down the middle with the two types of players you can’t win titles with. On the one hand, one-dimensional veterans who demand the ball are hogging minutes. Meanwhile, young players with star potential are being underutilized and seemingly under-prioritized. The storylines – and there are plenty, because they’re the Lakers after all – vacillate between Kobe’s legacy and lack of efficiency, and Byron Scott’s inability to make sane coaching decisions or explain them to the media. They sit at 9-32, on pace for a mere 18 wins, which would be the lowest total in franchise history. On an individual level, none of their top nine players in minutes-per-game have a positive real plus-minus, and only one boasts an above-average PER (that’s rock-launching guard Lou Williams). Kobe Bryant has been pegged by many as the least efficient player in the NBA this season, launching an absurd amount of shots and barely making any of them. While other teams have had more prolonged stretches of poor play and the Sixers have five fewer wins, it’s possible the Lakers’ season has been the biggest disappointment.
But all is not doom and gloom. The Lakers, unlike the Nets this year or the Knicks last year, have real young talent with which to build around. Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance both look like steals relative to their draft position, and Julius Randle and DeAngelo Russell have shown flashes of something great to come. Although Kobe Bryant is making Scrooge McDuck-level money this year, he is retiring, and the Lakers’ cap sheet moving forward is relatively clean. They get dump trucks of money from their market every season, and this year is no different as fans show up in droves to see Kobe’s last season. And with the history and success of the franchise, L.A. will get a sit-down with any free agent they would like to speak with. This year is grim, but there’s light on the horizon.
Steps to Take
#1: Fire Byron Scott – This needs to happen. Scott was a coach seemingly hired for his relationship with the team and his general likability around the league. But the evidence is clear that he is not a good NBA coach. Since his successful run with the Nets in the early 2000s, Scott has only two seasons where his team even hit .500, and his career record is 150 games under .500. He led into the season with statements like “if we take 10 three pointers a game that’s a good mark.” For reference, no team in the league takes less than fifteen. Or “there’s really no reason” for Russell to play in the fourth quarter of a blowout. Kobe himself had to tell Scott to play the young players in one game. This is not evidence of a coach in control, nor one who will be at the helm of the next great Lakers team. To quote Mark Twain, “It is better to keep your mouth closed and let people think you are a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.” Scott is removing all doubt, at least from a strategy perspective. He needs to go.
#2: …but not until the end of the season – Byron Scott is so terrible that the Lakers should keep him around until the end of the season. As things stand, the Lakers would pick second in the draft, a position that would allow them to keep the top-three protected pick now in the hands of the Philadelphia 76ers. With Phoenix, Brooklyn, New Orleans, and Minnesota all within a few games of the Lakers, General Manager Mitch Kupchak and the Buss family should keep Scott in place to ensure their best shot at keeping their pick. In addition, Scott seems to have both a good relationship and an understanding with Kobe. The Lakers have no interest in marring the Mamba farewell tour with a feud between Bryant and a new coach. While there might be fear of stunted development in the young players, Steph Curry doesn’t seem to bear any ill effects from being yanked for the likes of Acie Law by Warriors coach Keith Smart early in Curry’s career. As long as a solid coach is hired to replace Scott, keeping him through April makes sense on multiple levels for the franchise.
#3: Hire Mark Jackson – Picking up the Golden State thread, I think their blueprint is the one the Lakers should follow, at least in this area. While Jackson had his share of interpersonal issues with members of the Golden State organization, there is no denying how well liked he is by those who play for him–except of course Andrew Bogut. More than that, Jackson empowers players to be the best they can be. Draymond Green has more swagger than anyone in the league, and guys like Steph and Klay Thompson believe completely in each other. That’s the legacy Jackson left behind, and he will instill that same sense of confidence with Randle and Russell. As they grow into their roles, they can look north to Oakland to see the road to follow. Russel has the raw playmaking and shooting ability to mimic much of Curry’s game, and if he puts in the work could thrive in Jackson’s system. And Randle is already a gifted passer and vocal competitor. Just as Draymond Green spent an entire offseason in the gym hoisting up three-pointers, Randle could add range to his game and be the versatile weapon the entire league craves.
#4: Make sure Kobe retires – Yes, Bryant announced this season was his last. And yes, he’s been accepting gifts and tributes and ovations in every city across America. But supposed retirements have been undone before, and the Lakers need Kobe out of the picture so they can start fresh.
#5: Be Careful in Free Agency – This past season, Los Angeles went into the free-agency period with a solid amount of cap space. They pitched to players up and down the talent spectrum, from LaMarcus Aldridge to Marcelo Huertas. In the end Brandon Bass, Lou Williams, and Roy Hibbert joined the team (the latter in a trade) during July. None of these players are going to help the Lakers reach their long-term goal of championship contention. They need to keep their eye on the prize. Los Angeles should get a meeting with all of the best free agents – Kevin Durant, Mike Conley, Al Horford – next season, and should take advantage of those. Acquiring a star will certainly accelerate the rebuilding process. But they should avoid signing anymore bottom-to-mid tier veterans–they have enough of those. Young players with upside, stars, and a handful of carefully selected vets to oversee the locker room should be the mix for this front office to bring on board.
#6: Build for the Long Haul – The Lakers have been great for so many years, and they will almost certainly be great again. But the road to greatness will not present itself in the form of a silver bullet or golden ticket. Though that has happened for them in the past, they need to build a team based not on quick fixes but a gradual increase in talent; no sending out draft picks for mid-tier veterans, no aging stars, no short-term grabs. If possible, they should offload players like Lou Williams, Brandon Bass, and Nick Young–even if it’s for nothing. Let Russell, Randle, Clarkson, and Nance get all the minutes they can take, learning as they play against NBA competition. And let Kobe ride into the sunset, recognizing that the Lakers cannot be good again until Kobe Bean Bryant hangs up his jersey and lets the Lakers free.
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