In the first of a new series, the best option for Sacramento to compete for a title one day may be a complete rebuild — starting this season.
“There is more than one way to skin a cat”
This bizarre proverb, first popularized in 1889 by Mark Twain, has a simple meaning: there are always multiple ways in which to achieve a desired outcome. Stepping from felines to basketball, in the NBA this desired outcome is winning a championship (bear with me. I know technically it’s making profit, but that’s less fun to talk about). While Sam Hinkie may think he has figured out the best way to reach that outcome with his much maligned “Process,” the history of the league, even recently, has shown a half dozen or more paths to success.
The problem is that many teams seem to have lost their way. Perhaps they have tried a number of methods and none have worked. Perhaps they have committed completely to one method, and success has eluded them. Perhaps their leadership is so dysfunctional they don’t even have a method. Regardless, the NBA features a number of teams for which the goal – a title – is well outside their reach. How can they get back on track? What steps should these teams take to redirect the direction of their franchise and start moving towards their goals? Do they use a Case XX or a Buck Stockman?
That is the basis for a new series here at The Lottery Mafia: Turning the Corner, where we give our personal opinion on what a team should do to change their direction and regain success. Over the remainder of the season and into the offseason we’ll drop in on a variety of lottery-bound teams, asking the hard questions and giving our expert (devoid) opinions. The series begins in California’s capital with the Sacramento Kings.
How Things Stand
The Sacramento Kings sit at 14-21, which currently means 10th in the West but is only three games away from 14th. Their 1.9 point differential and 21st BPI have them finishing right at 10th in the West by the end of the season. The playoffs are theoretically still in reach, but no one outside of Sacramento thinks that will happen – and most of the purple faithful are spiraling into despair as it is. While there are certainly tangible basketball explanations for their inability to climb into the playoffs – the best shooter in their starting lineup might be their center, their last five first round draft picks are either off the team or putting up a below-average PER, their star player has missed eight games due to injury, and the real issues seem to be more related to attitude and emotions. This team is simply a host of dysfunction from top to bottom.
From clashes between players and coach George Karl, to clashes between Karl and general manager Vlade Divac, from homophobic slurs and deliberate tripping to ejections and passive-aggressive emojis, this team has a serious attitude problem. The talent is there: Sacramento has won in Oklahoma City, Toronto, and Indiana this season. However, they’ve also lost at home to Philadelphia, Portland, and Minnesota. Night to night their performance on and off the court is completely unpredictable, and to make matters worse, they don’t have guaranteed help moving forward, as their first and second round picks have various conditions until 2019.
Various writers and commentators have suggested a variety of paths, from initiating a fire sale, to firing Karl, to sitting tight and hoping they can make the playoffs. The pet stat of this last group is the Kings’ record with Cousins in the lineup – currently 13-14, which pro-rated would sneak Sacramento into the playoffs. The problem with that statistic is twofold: Cousins never gets through an entire season healthy, and a season-long record of 40-42 won’t be good enough for a playoff berth once the West gets back into its groove. So what’s the game plan here? I say: BURN IT DOWN.
Steps to Take
#1: Trade DeMarcus Cousins.
The Kings have a problem of culture, and that isn’t going to change while DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo remain in town. Cousins has proved to be a premier talent and a first-class head case, inflicting damage on his teams even while being their best player. He could certainly put things together, but that’s probably not going to happen on this team as a part of this organization. While trading a top-15 player may not seem like a good idea, keeping Cousins around puts a hard ceiling on this franchise, and they need to see what they can get for him.
I see four teams with the assets to go after Cousins and the desire to (Golden State isn’t trading Curry for example); let’s run through them quickly and gauge which ones work best for Sacramento.
1) Boston Celtics – The most talked about option, the Celtics’ narrative under Stevens has been hoarding assets until a major star comes available. Cousins fits that narrative perfectly, and Boston would seem to have the culture in place to help the young center grow. They have a treasure chest of draft picks, multiple young bigs to send back to the Kings, and a large expiring (David Lee) to make contracts work. To toss something out: DeMarcus Cousins, Caron Butler for David Lee, Kelly Olynyk, James Young, Tyler Zeller, Brooklyn’s unprotected 2018 first, Dallas 2016 first.
2) Denver Nuggets – Denver has a stable of European bigs it is trying out, but none are on the level of Cousins. If the Kings wanted to continue to compete while getting top value for Cousins, the Nuggets have some options in players George Karl once coached and a pair of talented sophomore players. DeMarcus Cousins for Kenneth Faried, Jusuf Nurkic, Gary Harris, 2016 protected first from Memphis.
3) Los Angeles Lakers – The Lakers have a history of elite big men, including the player Boogie is often compared with, Shaquille O’Neal. They have a bunch of young talent that could interest Divac and the Sacramento decision makers. DeMarcus Cousins, Darren Collison for Roy Hibbert, DeAngelo Russell, Julius Randle, Larry Nance Jr.
4) Philadelphia 76ers – Philly has to start heading up sometime, and they have amassed a ridiculous amount of young talent and draft assets that could comprise an impressive package. Then they would be on the hook to impress Cousins enough for him to stay in three years, but that’s the future. DeMarcus Cousins for Jahlil Okafor, Carl Landry, Robert Covington, 2016 Lakers pick, protections on Sacramento picks removed.
#2: Trade other veterans
Once Cousins is gone, this team needs to go ahead and change their short-term goals. They won’t make the playoffs this year, and they need to prepare to field a championship-level team for the years to come. Rajon Rondo has to go, for half-pennies on the dollar if necessary. Any culture change can’t happen with Rondo going out of his way to draw negative attention to himself. Rudy Gay is a solid player with obvious limitations; he could be valuable to the right team in the right situation, but he’s likewise not going to get a large return. Trade him anyway. Let this season be lost, and get back anything you can.
#3: Don’t give up on young players
Three of the team’s last five first round picks are on other teams, two given up for near nothing after they were deemed to have “failed.” While the Kings may have been correct on their assessment of these players, they also deemed them worthy of high picks not too long ago. Hang on to Ben McLemore, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Seth Curry, no matter how they may struggle. See whether one of those players could develop into a solid part of a successful team.
#4: Don’t fire George Karl
I don’t know if Karl is still a good coach, or if he’s the right man for Sacramento to reach their goals. What I do know is the Kings have fired seven coaches in nine years, and you don’t build a successful franchise with that sort of turnover. Get Cousins out of town, let Karl inject this team with his culture – by all accounts a solid and successful one – and see what he can do when it’s his team, not Boogie’s.
#5: Sign high-character free agents
This may seem like a no-brainer, but it’s of key importance for Sacramento. There are a number of players league wide with character issues that, in the right situation, could be moved past to see that player bloom into a high-quality contributor. Think Zach Randolph in Memphis a few years back, or Danny Green in San Antonio. That can’t be the gameplan for the Kings. They need to target high-character players that will ensure a mature locker room.
#6: Long-term, make patient decisions
This offseason Sacramento sent draft considerations and last year’s first rounder to Philadelphia to open up cap space, then used that space on middling veterans and the self-destructive Rondo. Sacramento needs to be patient — use the space it has, take part in big moves only when it nets them a legitimate upgrade in talent without sacrificing long-term success. Kosta Koufos is not winning anyone a title.
Conclusion
In the end, the Kings have to decide: do they keep their for-sure superstar, and realize that means a continued roller coaster of maturity and acting out, or do they offload him and hope to build a positive culture in which future talent can play? If they keep Cousins, Karl has to go, and either way Rondo needs to see the door. For me, the best way for the Kings to skin this cat is let Boogie free to be Boogie. And, you know, get a bounty in return. Can the Kings stick to this plan and make smart decisions? Well, anything is possible.
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