UFC 127 PPV Buyrate Prediction

Ladies and gentleman, boys and girls, children of all ages it’s time for your favourite game show, GUESS THE UFC PPV BUYRATE TOTAL!!!!!  In today’s episode we predict the pay-per-view buyrate total for Saturday’s UFC 127, aka “Who in their right mind would pay $49.99 for this pay-per-view?”.  Seriously, all kidding aside, UFC 127 is a really weak card.  In fact, it is more in line with a UFC Fight Night card or a free PPV that the company runs on Spike TV from time to time.  How is this event going to push any units?

Like any PPV card, UFC 127 does possess some selling points.  B.J. Penn is a known commodity and a big name fighter that even casual fans to the sport know.  However, despite being a legend, Penn doesn’t sell very well – for the 15 pay-per-view the UFC put on in 2010, the three cards Penn appeared on ranked tenth, tenth and seventh in terms of total sales.  Not one of his appearances sold above the company’s average for 2010 (around 620,000 buys;Penn didn’t sell more than 570,000 for one of his 2010 appearances).  Then there is the matter of Penn’s main event opponent at Saturday’s Sydney card, Jon Fitch.  While Fitch is without a doubt one of the best mixed martial artists in the world, his fighting style of taking opponents down to the mat and grinding out wins is widely derided as being boring.  While his lone main event PPV apperance did sell well (UFC 87 – 625,000 buys), that probably had more to do with his opponent, Georges St-Pierre, as well as Brock Lesnar making his second appearnce in the Octagon at the event.

Ok, how about the co-main event at UFC 127?  Well, Jorge Rivera has never headlined a UFC PPV, but considering he’s been in and out of hte organization since 2003 and has fought 12 times in the Octagon, there’s probably a reason why he’s never headlined an event – he’s a mid-level fighter at best.  However, his opponent, Michael Bisping is surprisingly one of Zuffa’s top sellers – in fact, only Lesnar averages more buys per appearance.  But we’ve shown that that has more to do with Bisping appearing as a co-main eventer on cards with huge names in the main event.  The one positive Rivera vs Bisping brings to the event is the intense trash-talking the two have been engaged in leading up to the event – as Rampage Jackson vs Rashad Evans proved, hate sells.

When you add it all up, UFC 127 looks to be a box office bomb.  There’s no beltson the line, no “big names” save for Penn and Bisping and not a real strong undercard leading up to the main event matches.  The big question is, can this event outsell UFC 125, which did in the 270,000-300,000 buyrate range?  Maybe not – 125 had a title on the line and bigger names on the undercard.  Look for UFC 127 to sell between 250,000-300,000 buys.