UFC 132 Buyrate Prediction

Saturday’s UFC 132 will be a historic moment for the company.  For the first time in the UFC’s history, two men weighing under 155 pounds will headline a UFC event.  But will this be enough to entice fans to cough up $49.99 to purchase the pay-per-view?

The two “little people” headlining the card are of course UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz and the only man to ever beat the Dominator, Urijah Faber.  Faber is the most famous and popular lighter weight fighter of all-time, which must give the UFC hope that he can sell a few PPVs for them.  Add in the fact that, as mentioned, Faber is the only man to ever beat Cruz, plus the fact that there is genuine bad blood between the two fighters, and you’ve got yourself a solid main event to a card.  And that’s not even mentioning the exciting show the two fighters are bound to put on in the Octagon, with the champ utilizing his highly effective and unique “stick and move” striking style, and Faber showing a well-rounded game and perhaps the biggest heart in the sport. 

However, in life and especially in combat sports, size sells.  The casual mixed martial arts fan wants to see 260 pound behemoths slugging it out in the cage, and the sales numbers back that up.  While most serious connoisseurs of the sport will acknowledge that the little guys tend to put on the best fights, both in terms of technical mastery and action, the average fan tends to not get too excited about the little guys.  Maybe this will change someday now that the premier MMA organization on the planet has lighter weight classes, not to mention the exciting Jose Aldo ruling the 145 pound roost.

If this card was taking place about three years ago or so, Wanderlei Silva’s presence on it would have helped boost its sales.  But, unfortunately, despite still being one of the most beloved fighters of his time, The Axe Murderer’s sales ability has diminished in conjunction with his skills in the Octagon.

Our prediction for UFC 132’s PPV buyrate: 300,000 buys.

Update (July 9th): The results are in, and it turns out I underestimated the draw of this card a little bit.  The early returns are that it sold in the 350,000-375,000 range.