Rosenthal League
Marta Gallo: 11-2, .846
Benjamin Kohn: 69-25, .734
Tim Hickey: 86-34, .717
Tim Bernier: 58-23, .716
Nolan Howell: 109-45, .708
Daniel Galvan: 19-8, .704
Winslow League
Josh Hall: 70-35, .667
Connor Dillon: 59-32, .648
Chris Groves: 30-19, .612
Luke Irwin: 105-74, .587
Lucas Bourdon: 13-10, .565
TC Engel: 20-20, .500
UFC Featherweight Championship: Jose Aldo (c) (22-1) vs. Chan Sung Jung (13-3)
Luke Irwin: Aldo has been a great champion, but he hasn’t been dominant. There are cracks. Very few and hard to spot, but they’re there. He can get tired in the later rounds. He did with Edgar and he did with Hominick. He can be outstruck if you’re quick enough. Zombie gets better round-by-round and never seems to tire. He has so, so many weapons he can throw at you and may be the most diversified fighter in MMA. He can come at you from so many different angles, and so many different ways. I’m picking with my heart over my head again, but I think Aldo gets a little sloppy late, Zombie zones in on it with laser-like precision and finds something crazy unorthodox and surprising to Aldo. Jung via R5 submission.
Tim Hickey: As much as I love the Korean Zombie, this fight is tailor made for Aldo. Jung has been out of the cage for almost 18 months, took this fight on short notice, and has had a perchance of getting hit in his fights. If he can hold on past 3 round, he can make this a fight as Aldo has shown he slows down in the championship rounds, but I don’t think it will go that long. Aldo via TKO Rd 2.
Ben Kohn: Read my breakdown lazy bums! Aldo (T)KO Rd 2.
Nolan Howell: Everyone wants the upset to happen here. Though I include myself in that bunch, aside from a weird submission, there is nothing I see Chan Sung Jung doing to Jose Aldo. Looping strikes and minimal takedown offense is something Jose Aldo lives for and it will show all over the legs of Chan Sung Jung. Leg kicks and punches will be a good substitute for a headshot here and expect Jose Aldo to do a hell of a Woody Harrelson impression tomorrow. Jose Aldo by unanimous decision.
Josh Hall: The Korean Zombie is awesome, but I don’t see a Chris Weidman/Anderson Silva situation happening here. He has been out of the cage for a while, and has, in my opinion, no advantages in this fight. I don’t see him sitting back and letting Aldo just chop his leg down and will get hurt coming forward. Aldo via TKO.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Lyoto Machida (19-3) vs. Phil Davis (11-1)
Luke Irwin: This fight makes absolute sense from a matchmaking perspective, but I think it’s going to be hideous. Machida has shown he won’t be sucked into an entertaining bout if it means a chance at a loss. He’s very, very deliberate in every decision he makes in the cage and out of it. Davis is very adept at using his superhero-like size and wrestling game to take dominant position to either apply a submission from the top (Gustafsson, Prado, Boetsch), or stifle any submission attempts from the bottom (Magalhaes). The problem will be Machida trying to get inside Davis’s massive wingspan to throw some offense (I doubt he can), or Davis trying to get Machida on the floor (I know he can’t). So this one is going three uneventful rounds and I think Machida takes it by being busier. Machida via SD.
Tim Hickey: I honestly believe Machida is a nightmare matchup for Davis. He has very good take down defense thanks to his Sumo background, and is so far ahead of Davis in the striking aspect of the game. Barring Davis utilizing a Randy Couture-esque gameplan of wall and stall, I think he ends up losing in a lackluster decision. Machida via UD.
Ben Kohn: Machida will be content to stay on the outside and leg kick Davis all night long. Davis will not want to rush in recklessly and get KTFO’d. Davis will not get Machida down so Machida by UD.
Nolan Howell: “The Dragon” has returned and even Paul Orndorff couldn’t help “Mr. Wonderful” in this matchup. Machida has the sumo wrestling and trip game to keep the fight where he wants. That’ll be on the feet and Phil Davis doesn’t have a prayer there. Sadly, I think this fight will be ugly. Lyoto Machida by unanimous decision.
Josh Hall: I don’t see Davis having anything for Machida. He is totally outclassed on the feet, and Machida is one of the toughest guys in the division to take down. I don’t think Davis will press forward too hard on the feet if he can’t get the fight to the floor, and Machida will be content to pick him apart from the outside. Machida via lopsided decision.
Middleweight Bout: Cezar Ferreira (5-2) vs. Thiago Santos (8-1)
Luke Irwin: And heeerrreee’s where the card falls WAY the hell off. Ferreira won the TUF Brazil Middleweight tourney and Santos is a purely regional fighter. He’s a veteran of Watch Out Combat Show, which is a legit Brazilian indy, but that’s not good enough to hang with a TUF winner like Ferreira. Pump-up fight to make him look good in front of the Brazilian crowd and legitimize TUF Brazil. Ferreira via R2 TKO.
Tim Hickey: I would be a goddamn liar if I told you I had any sort of familiarity with either of these fighters. I saw Mutante fight once during his UFC debut, and that was over a year ago. Coin flip time. Ferreria via UD.
Ben Kohn: Cezar is someone who the UFC wants to win being the TUF Brazil winner and all. Ferreira will most likely finish his opponent in the first so…Ferreira by KO Rd 1.
Nolan Howell: This fight seems like a way to get a TUF: Brazil guy a win. Even if it wasn’t, Cezar Ferreira has a decent upside and some nice striking. This should get him the win here. Cezar Ferreira by second-round TKO.
Josh Hall: Santos is moving up from WW, has fought atrocious competition in his career, and should be thoroughly out matched here. Ferreira via TKO.
Middleweight Bout: Thales Leites (20-4) vs. Tom Watson (16-5)
Luke Irwin: Two longtime veterans, Leites is making his return to the UFC, while Watson has been working for a long time to get there. After Watson’s outstanding showing against Nedkov, he’s got a lot more job security with Leites. Thales’s bread-and-butter is his sub game, everyone knows it’s coming, but can you stop it? Since his release, he’s managed to catch veterans like Jesse Taylor, Tor Troeng, and an avenged win over Matt Horwich. Can Watson avoid that submission game? I think he can, and he has enough pop in his hands to make Leites pay. Watson via R3 TKO.
Tim Hickey: Leites makes his return to the Octagon after a 4 year absence, and will more likely have his hands full with Watson. Leites has fought twice in the last 2 years, and will more than likely come into this fight with some significant ring rust. Watson looked really good in his last fight with Nedkov, and I think he continues to ride that wave. Watson via UD.
Ben Kohn: Classic Striker vs. Grappler match and I will almost always choose the grappler to win. Leites is serviceable in the standup and will only try and stand long enough to grab a hole of Watson. Watson needs to keep this on the feet to win and I don’t think he can all fight. Leites Sub Rd 2.
Nolan Howell: Thales Leites was criminally underrated in the UFC his first time around, only to completely blow all good will with his shot at Anderson Silva at UFC 97. He has been on and off since then and I think Tom Watson can bring it to him in a fun scrap. Tom Watson by unanimous decision.
Josh Hall: Watson is a fun fighter to watch at MW, but his lack of ground game is a major concern against the high level BJJ player in Leites. The inactivity of Leites (only 2 fights since 2010) is a bit concerning, but I don’t see Watson having much more than a puncher’s chance against the Brazilian who has never been knocked out. Leites via submission.
129-lb Catchweight Bout: John Lineker (21-6) vs. Jose Maria Tome (33-3)
Luke Irwin: Jason Reinhardt thinks Tome’s record is shameful. Not only are Tome’s wins on regionals, which isn’t bad, but they’re coming on regional cards I haven’t even heard of. Because of my Top-400 research, I watch a ton of regional cards and I haven’t heard of 80% of the ones he’s fought at. On the flip side, John Lineker is going to be the next UFC Flyweight champion. FOR THE LOVE OF GOD, LINEKER, MAKE WEIGHT. YOU’RE MAKING ME LOOK LIKE A GODDAMNED FOOL. Lineker via R1 KO.
Tim Hickey: A quick look at Tome’s impressive on paper 33-3 record, and I do not recognize a single name there. It isn’t like Lineker has a murderers row of victims on his rap sheet, but he has 3 fights in the Octagon, so I gotta assume that means something. Lineker via TKO Rd 3.
Ben Kohn: Lineker is a whirlwind or violence and he is going to seriously hurt and dominate Tome, despite his awesome record (many of his opponents have losing records or only 1 or 2 fights). Lineker by violent TKO in Rd 2.
Nolan Howell: Marisa Tomei takes time off from showing Mickey Rourke her…oh, wait, nevermind. Jose Maria Tome steps up on short-notice to test himself against John Lineker. Tome packs a punch and has been successful on the Brazilian circuit, but he is stepping in the Tasmanian Devil here who is more proven. John Lineker by unanimous decision.
Josh Hall: Tome comes into the fight sporting a gaudy record built on the squashing of tomato cans in obscure Brazilian promotions, while Lineker missed weight by a full 3 pounds. Yikes. Tome is hyper aggressive, and against a fighter with the speed and power of Lineker that can oft be a recipe for disaster. This has FOTN potential in a rare flyweight fight where a finish by either man is the likely outcome. I’ll take Lineker to hurt Tome as he moves forward and score the finish in the 2nd. Lineker via KO.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Anthony Perosh (13-7) vs. Vinny Magalhaes (10-6)
Luke Irwin: Both grizzled veterans, Perosh has fought all over the world and has fought in multiple weight-classes, but has never been submitted. Knocked out? Sure, lots of that, but never submitted. Perosh, much as I love the guy, is still riding his miracle-run from taking on Cro Cop on a day’s notice, then winning three fights in a row before losing to Ryan Jimmo in a millisecond. Magalhaes got smothered by Phil Davis, but most everyone gets smothered by Phil Davis. Perosh doesn’t really have a discernable skill besides taking punches and somehow falling into a submission win or somehow catching someone with some strikes. I’m not hating on Perosh, I really like the guy, but he’s 41 and always seems to be losing fights even when he wins them. Magalhaes via R1 Submission.
Tim Hickey: Vinny said in an interview a week or so that if he loses to Perosh, he deserves to be cut. I am inclined to agree with him. I can’t see a way Perosh wins this fight, if it goes to the ground, even tho Perosh has a good game, expect to see a submission. Magalhaes via Rd 2 sub.
Ben Kohn: Vinny’s striking was terrible against Phil Davis but against Anthony Perosh, he will look superb and he will do it on the feet finishing him fast. Magalhaes Rd 1 KO.
Nolan Howell: Vinny Magalhaes is competent enough on the feet to hang with Anthony Perosh and is more credentialed on the mat. Perosh may have a trick or two up his sleeve, but not enough to pull the upset here. Vinny Magalhaes by first-round submission.
Josh Hall: With all due respect to Anthony Perosh, who I hold in high regard, Vinny is being thrown a softball here. Perosh could be knocked out by a stiff breeze, and his solid submission game is absolutely no match for the all world BJJ of Maghalaes. He has 2 KO’s in his last 4 wins, and I think another here is very likely. Maghalaes via KO.
Women’s Bantamweight Bout: Amanda Nunes (7-3) vs. Sheila Gaff (10-5-1)
Luke Irwin: Gaff is a nasty, NASTY striker who just happened to run into the literal best wrestler in MMA today. Gaff can be had by a wrestler or someone who can take her down, but Nunes isn’t that woman. Gaff can neutralize her and make her pay. Gaff via R1 KO.
Tim Hickey: This might be my favorite fight of the undercard, as both of these ladies are known for putting people to sleep. I am hoping for a war. It probably won’t be pretty, but it should be fun! Nunes via TKO Rd 2.
Ben Kohn: Nunes is bigger, better, and will knock Gaff out in the first round. Nunes KO Rd 1.
Nolan Howell: Hard to pick against the more challenged fighter here, as Amanda Nunes has spent time in Invicta and Strikeforce with moderate success. Sheila Gaff’s European circuit credentials are suspect in comparison and Nunes should be able to work Gaff over. Amanda Nunes by second-round TKO.
Josh Hall: This is a tough one for me. Nunes has had mixed results against better competition, while Gaff has 2 KO’s in under 10 seconds in her last fight but is coming off a hard to watch mauling she suffered in her UFC debut at the hands of Sara McMann. In Brazil, when in doubt, pick the Brazilian. Nunes has finished all 7 of her wins with 6 via TKO, so that seems the mos likely way for her to win here. Nunes via TKO.
Welterweight Bout: Neil Magny (8-1) vs. Sergio Moraes (7-2)
Luke Irwin: When in doubt, go with the wrestler. Magny via UD.
Tim Hickey: *shrugs shoulders* Moraes via decision.
Ben Kohn: Moraes is tough as nails and likes to brawl while Magny likes to wrestle. This plays into Sergio’s excellent submission grappling game and I think that’s where the fight will end. Moraes by Sub Rd 1.
Nolan Howell: While Neil Magny is solid enough for a TUF veteran, his weakness is on the mat. Sergio Moraes is too good not to expose that. Sergio Moraes by second-round submission.
Josh Hall: Moraes should be able to use his top level BJJ to impose his will on the ground against Magny, but he will have to make some adjustments to avoid getting hammered on the feet as he has thus far in his UFC career. I think he looks to get the fight to the ground early and often, and once he does bad things will happen. Moraes via submission.
Flyweight Bout: Ian McCall (11-4-1) vs. Iliarde Santos (27-7-1)
Luke Irwin: After a huge career on the Brazilian indies, Santos was finally giving a step up to the UFC and was finished by Yuri Alcantara in two and a half minutes. This won’t get any easier, as McCall is looking for a big bounceback. McCall via R1 TKO.
Tim Hickey: Good Lord, it has been 2 years since Ian McCall has won a fight. He needs this fight in order to stay relevant in the flyweight division, as well as possibly keep his job. Hopefully we see a motivated Uncle Creepy, or he and his gloriously awful mustache will be plying his trade elsewhere. McCall via split decision.
Ben Kohn: They are really throwing McCall a bone here and he will take it because he knows he needs to. McCall by KO Rd 2.
Nolan Howell: Iliarde Santos seems to be a decent fighter, but Ian McCall is an elite flyweight and it should show here. Ian McCall by unanimous decision.
Josh Hall: In a desperation fight for both men Uncle creepy looks to shed the tag of best fighter without a win in the UFC while Santos tries to wash off the stink of the crushing defeat he suffered in his UFC debut. McCall is a far better fighter than his UFC record would indicate, and I expect him to use speed and wrestling to secure the victory here. Creepy via unanimous decision.
Featherweight Bout: Josh Clopton (6-1) vs. Rani Yahya (18-7)
Luke Irwin: Weird matchmaking here, but Yahya is a solid middle-card featherweight who should handle Clopton with his grappling. Yahya via R1 submission.
Tim Hickey: Yanya via UD.
Ben Kohn: Wow talk about squash matches. Yahya will always struggle at the top of the division but not against Clopton. Yahya Sub Rd 1.
Nolan Howell: Rani Yahya should walk out to this: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GftcVbxNyao Rani Yahya by first-round submission.
Josh Hall: Yahya is a very limited fighter, but he is still a really good one that has beaten far better fighters than Clopton. This looks to be a showcase fight for Yahya in front of the Brazilian crowd, and I think he will look aggressively for the finish once the fight hits the ground. Yahya via submission.
Welterweight Bout: Bristol Marunde (12-8) vs. Viscardi Andrade (14-5)
Luke Irwin: Loser probably gets sent back to the indies. Marunde via SD.
Tim Hickey: Marunde via decision.
Ben Kohn: Least compelling matchup on the card but Marunde by UD.
Nolan Howell: Another pick ’em. Viscardi Andrade is favored in the books, but he hasn’t faced the level of competition Bristol Marunde has. The grind will be strong in this one. Bristol Marunde by unanimous decision.
Josh Hall: Mediocre American fighter on a 2 fight losing streak on a Brazil card fighting a Brazilian on a nice winning streak… Good enough for me. Andrade via submission.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Ednaldo Oliveira (13-1-1) vs. Francimar Barroso (15-3)
Luke Irwin: DAMN YOU DRYSDAAAAAALLLLLEEEE!! Oliveira via R2 KO.
Tim Hickey: Oliveria via 2nd Rd TKO.
Ben Kohn: Oliveira is dropping from HW and looking to reestablish himself as a prospect to watch. I think he does so against the injury replacement (read: short notice) Barroso. Oliveira KO Rd 1.
Nolan Howell: Tossup here, as both are solid Brazilian regional talents. My nod will go to Ednaldo Oliveira, who is cutting down to 205 lbs. and will have a large size advantage. Ednaldo Oliveira by first-round TKO.
Josh Hall: Oliveira may have caught the break of the card with the injury to his original opponent in Robert Drysdale. After being submitted by Gabriel Gonzaga in his UFC debut he will have a much better opportunity dropping to 205 and not fighting a top level grappler. Barroso’s win include a litany of not very good fighters (Fun fact: 2 fights ago he beat a Brazilian with the nickname of “Bob Sapp”) and a propensity towards getting knocked out in each of his losses. Oliveira is a massive LHW at 6’7, and I think he uses the reach to beat up Barroso. Oliveira via TKO.
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