Last Event Winner: Luke Irwin (9-4)
Ben Kohn: 57-26 .687
Luke Irwin: 93-47 .664
TC Engel: 69-35 .663
Josh Hall: 33-18 .647
Earl Montclair: 51-31 .622
Lucas Bourdon: 3-2 .600
Nolan Howell: 42-29 .592
Dan Galvan: 5-6 .455
UFC Bantamweight Championship: Renan Barao (c) (32-1) vs. TJ Dillashaw (9-2)
Luke Irwin: Experience is a funny thing. For years, Anderson Silva clowned professional fighters who had 20, 30, 40+ fights on their resume, but was taken apart by a man with nine when they first met, and then again when he had ten. Is TJ Dillashaw as talented as Chris Weidman? No. Not at all. But people writing him off just because of his inexperience are missing the point. Dillashaw could trap Barao against the fence, beat him up, take him down, and whale on him. I don’t think he will, and it’s because of Urijah Faber. Faber is better at everything than Dillashaw is, and Faber had zero for Barao. So does Dillashaw look at that and, realize his mentor’s mistakes, and capitalize? I doubt it. I think he heeds whatever shitty advice Urijah is going to give him, which will not work against Renan, and fare the same fate, only maybe a tad later. Barao via R2 TKO.
Nolan Howell: Really, this is a glorified squash match. Everything TJ Dillashaw does, Urijah Faber does a lot better. We all saw what happened to Faber against Renan Barao and this will be no different. Renan Barao by first-round KO.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Dan Henderson (30-11) vs. Daniel Cormier (14-0)
Luke Irwin: Hendo hasn’t used his wrestling in nearly a damned decade, so that won’t come into play here. Cormier is just going to put him against the fence and beat him up like he did with Mir. Cormier via UD.
Nolan Howell: Dan Henderson has looked one-dimensional in his past few fights, showing little more than a right hand and some veteran tricks. Against a super athlete like Daniel Cormier, those instincts won’t come into play. Aside from a hail mary H-bomb, Cormier has the edge everywhere in intangibles and skill set. Hendo won’t be an easy out though. Daniel Cormier by unanimous decision.
Welterweight Bout: Jake Ellenberger (29-7) vs. Robbie Lawler (22-10)
Luke Irwin: We know what we’re going to get out of Robbie Lawler. He’s rounded out his game well enough to almost neutralize any disadvantage he has in the wrestling game. I have no idea what we’re going to see out of Ellenberger. Is he going to go for broke? Is he going to try and nibble and outbox Lawler like he tried with MacDonald? Is he going to try and ground him down with wrestling? We see a different Ellenberger just about every time he steps in the cage, and that, I think, will be his undoing. He’s not committing to honing his style, he’s throwing shit against the wall and hoping something sticks. Lawler via UD.
Nolan Howell: Jake Ellenberger sacrifices fight IQ for killer instinct. He could very well hurt Robbie Lawler early in this fight, but Lawler’s durability will keep him in it. That said, Lawler has looked sharp on the feet and Ellenberger is a bit too much of a brawler for Lawler’s sharpened technique. Wrestling should be Ellenberger’s goal here, but I don’t think it will get done. Robbie Lawler by second-round TKO.
Bantamweight Bout: Francisco Rivera (10-2) vs. Takeya Mizugaki (19-7-2)
Luke Irwin: Quite possibly the most heavy-handed bantamweight in the world is the underdog, but he’s live and I like it here. I think Mizu gets tagged by one of the only 135’ers in the world with true knockout power. Rivera via R2 TKO.
Nolan Howell: This has fight of the night written all over it. Takeya Mizugaki should use his wrestling and judo to take advantage of the very noticably lacking ground game of Francisco Rivera. However, Mizugaki tends to always brawl and exchange for a bit on the feet with his opponent. Here, it will cost him. Francisco Rivera by first-round TKO.
Lightweight Bout: James Krause (20-5) vs. Jamie Varner (21-9-1)
Luke Irwin: Krause is a very, very solid fighter with no real weaknesses, but Varner can drag people into his wars, and unless you have the power of an Abel Trujillo or the submission game of a Joe Lauzon, you’re not going to stop him. I don’t think Krause has either and I think Varner puts the fists to him. Varner via R2 KO.
Nolan Howell: James Krause brings a sharp kickboxing game and an active submission game from his guard here. Jamie Varner will likely be able to negate that with his top game and has good boxing that can match up with the standup of Krause. Sort of a coin flip, but going with the more proven commodity. Jamie Varner by unanimous decision.
Lightweight Bout: Francisco Trinaldo (14-3) vs. Michael Chiesa (10-1)
Luke Irwin: What do we usually get from two guys with excellent submission games? That’s right; a shitty kickboxing fight. If that’s what we have here, I’ll favor Trinaldo. Trinaldo via UD.
Nolan Howell: Michael Chiesa’s toughness will win this for him. Michael Chiesa by unanimous decision.
Lightweight Bout: Katsunori Kikuno (22-5-2) vs. Tony Ferguson (14-3)
Luke Irwin: I like Kikuno a lot, as someone who follows JMMA very intensely, I’d like to see some Japanese veterans make a dent in the mainstream MMA scene, but I don’t think Kikuno is that guy here. Tony Ferguson is a rather large jump up from Quinn Mulhern. Kikuno is a fine fighter, but Ferguson is one of the best under-the-radar fighters in the world. He’s 4-1 in the UFC with three stoppages. I think Ferguson does enough here for the win. Ferguson via SD.
Nolan Howell: Katsunori Kikuno has looked too lethargic and Tony Ferguson is sharp enough on the feet and has the wrestling edge here. Tony Ferguson by second-round submission.
Bantamweight Bout: Chico Camus (14-4) vs. Chris Holdsworth (5-0)
Luke Irwin: I simply don’t see how Camus has any of the tools to stop Holdsworth here. Holdsworth via R1 Submission.
Nolan Howell: Chico Camus will keep this away from the mat and pick Holdsworth apart. Chico Camus by unanimous decision.
Lightweight Bout: Al Iaquinta (8-2-1) vs. Mitch Clarke (10-2)
Luke Irwin: Clarke is a fine enough fighter, and I’m fond of the dude, but Iaquinta has rebounded after his rocky start, and is coming as a big-time prospect. I think he does enough to take it here. Iaquinta via UD.
Nolan Howell: Al Iaquinta by unanimous decision.
Lightweight Bout: Anthony Njokuani (16-7) vs. Vinc Pichel (8-1)
Luke Irwin: Pichel is actually a bit underrated, but Njokuani is a striker like he hasn’t seen before. Njokuani via R2 KO.
Nolan Howell: Anthony Njokuani by first-round TKO.
Featherweight Bout: Aaron Phillips (5-0) vs. Sam Sicilia (12-4)
Luke Irwin: Phillips is a fine prospect, and I usually like to go with the steady vet, but Phillips has fought in some legit indies and I’m going to go with the kid. Phillips via SD.
Nolan Howell: Sam Sicilia by first-round TKO.
Welterweight Bout: David Michaud (7-0) vs. Li Jingliang (8-2)
Luke Irwin: As a guy who is a fan of Legend Fighting Championship, I still don’t trust non-Japanese Asian MMA that much, even if it is just going against Dakota MMA. Michaud via UD.
Nolan Howell: Chinese MMA blows. David Michaud by first-round TKO.
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