UFC Light Heavyweight Championship: Daniel Cormier (c) (16-1) vs. Alexander Gustafsson (16-3)
Nolan Howell: A good fight for a paper belt. Gustafsson has proven to be adept at stopping the takedown with his range and I think he gives Cormier trouble because of that. However, Cormier will get him down at least once or twice. and that will essentially be the end of that round. I think the range is the key factor here and it will be a lot of stick and move for the winner. Alexander Gustafsson by split decision.
Luke Irwin: First, let’s just throw out the ridiculous height issue the UFC is pushing. Cormier has been the shortest and the smallest in most of his fights. It’s never stopped him from dumping the likes of Barnett, Rumble, Bigfoot, Mir among others on their heads, so let’s just rule that out. The range, however, might be an issue. If Gus can keep Bones at range, Cormier won’t have a chance to get in and work him over. Also, there’s cardio. Gus has all of it. Rumble has none of it. Cormier was able to drag Johnson late, take him down, beat him out, and grind his health meter down to zero. He won’t be able to do that with Gus. Still, Cormier is a tank that can grind down even the best fighter, as long as he’s not Jon Jones. I think he can do that to the next best thing. Cormier via UD.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Rashad Evans (19-3-1) vs. Ryan Bader (19-4)
Nolan Howell: Evans has always been the wrestler that beats other wrestlers (not named Jon Jones, anyway). Under different circumstances, I’d be more confident in picking him over Bader. This all depends on how well Evans has recovered. I will bank on him looking good as new and being able to use his speed and herky-jerky movement to win. Rashad Evans by unanimous decision.
Luke Irwin: Well, between two great wrestlers, Bader is, once again, going to think he’s Marvin Hagler, and once again, will end up like Ricky Hatton. Evans via R1 KO.
Heavyweight Bout: Ruslan Magomedov (13-1) vs. Shawn Jordan (18-6)
Nolan Howell: Magomedov could win this ugly, but he seems just the right level of guy that Jordan pastes early. I’ll go with that being the more likely outcome. Shawn Jordan by first-round TKO.
Luke Irwin: Boy this is…this certainly is…the heavyweight division at this time. Third on the card. Wow. Yikes. Jordan via R1 TKO.
Flyweight Bout: Ali Bagautinov (13-3) vs. Joseph Benavidez (22-4)
Nolan Howell: I feel like we are soon due for a drop-off from Benavidez, but I don’t think Bagautinov is the guy to exploit that with his more power-based style of plodding. Joseph Benavidez by unanimous decision.
Luke Irwin: Here’s your fight of the night right here. We’ll see what Ali has in his, hopefully, all-natural system, but JoeB is JoeB and would easily be top-five at a higher weight class. Benavidez is going to run circles around Ali. Benavidez via UD.
Women’s Bantamweight Bout: Jessica Eye (11-3) vs. Julianna Pena (6-2)
Nolan Howell: Very surprised to see Julianna Pena as such a heavy favorite. I like her here to get the takedown and put her slick and powerful submissions to use, but I could just as easily see Eye being able to keep it on the feet and striking her way to a win. Julianna Pena by second-round submission.
Luke Irwin Tough draw here for the Venezuelan Vixen, but no time like the present and it looks like they’re ready to push her. I think Eye dirties it up enough to keep it a striking game, and like most Jessica Eye fights, it’ll go to the cards and someone will be pissed. Pena via SD.
Featherweight Bout: Dan Hooker (12-5) vs. Yair Rodriguez (5-1)
Nolan Howell: Again, maybe it’s just my being out of the loop, but Hooker being an underdog surprises me. Perhaps it is his propensity to be drawn into a brawl? Anyway, higher level of competition, aggressive style, well-rounded enough should be able to beat a TUF: Latin America winner. Daniel Hooker by second-round TKO.
Luke Irwin: In the immortal words of George Costanza, “your triumphs mean nothing”. Your TUF Latin America championship means nothing to me, Rodriguez. Hooker is a flawed fighter, but has the tools to take out a mediocre challenge. Hooker via R2 Submission.
Welterweight Bout: Alan Jouban (12-3) vs Albert Tumenov (15-2)
Nolan Howell: Jouban is tough and can just hang in there wherever the fight goes. He is going to need that toughness to stand with Tumenov. Closer than most think, but Tumenov is too slick standing. Albert Tumenov by unanimous decision.
Luke Irwin: Heavy-handed and footed Russians are taking over the upper-midcard division-by-division. Tumenov via R3 TKO.
Lightweight Bout: Adriano Martins (27-7) vs. Islam Makhachev (12-0)
Nolan Howell: Martins beat a similar style fighter in Khabilov last time out, albeit by a slim margin. Think he has the style to grind out a win here. Adriano Martins by split decision.
Luke Irwin: Darkhorse Fight of the Night candidate here. Both like to throw hands, both have a great chin, and both are aggressive as all hell. I think it’ll go the distance and be a great show. Makhachev via UD.
Women’s Strawweight Bout: Angela Hill (2-1) vs. Rose Namajunas (2-2)
Nolan Howell: Apparently (since I was the only one watching, I assume) no one saw Namajunas being a bit of a bully on TUF since she has come out relatively unscathed. I’m rooting for Hill here because she is always game for a scrap and also came off well on TUF, but at best I think she makes a good account for herself. Rose Namajunas by second-round submission.
Luke Irwin: I really, really like Angie Overkill, and I also think Rose is very overrated and generally not a likable person. Her “mean” face is second only to Rousey’s as the most laughable in WMMA. I want to see if Hill’s kickboxing background benefits her at all. Maybe this is the fight we see it, hopefully? Hill via R2 TKO.
160-lb Catchweight Bout: Francisco Trevino (12-1) vs. Sage Northcutt (5-0)
Nolan Howell: No way the UFC books Northcutt against anyone too dangerous or not able for him to style on. Sage Northcutt by first-round KO.
Luke Irwin: Trevino grossly missing weight sucks for Northcutt, but a weakened Trevino, too fatigued to even attempt another weigh-in, will fall right into Sage’s clutches and the 19-year old wunderkind will make his mark and start his journey. Northcutt via R1 Submission.
Flyweight Bout: Chris Cariaso (17-7) vs. Sergio Pettis (12-2)
Nolan Howell: Cariaso is well-rounded enough to be trouble for Pettis if he can’t get him out of there. Can’t trust Pettis to do that. Chris Cariaso by unanimous decision.
Luke Irwin: Cariaso is a quality fighter. A veteran gatekeeper that every division needs. I don’t think Serge, despite his enormous potential, is at that level yet. Cariaso via UD.
Heavyweight Bout: Derrick Lewis (12-4) vs. Viktor Pesta (10-1)
Nolan Howell: I don’t think Viktor will be able to Pesta Lewis too much here. Derrick Lewis by first-round TKO.
Luke Irwin: Lewis may have the hand velocity of Tim Wakefield, but when it finally lands, it usually is enough to end the fight. Lewis via R2 KO.
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