UFC Welterweight Championship: Robbie Lawler (c) (26-10) vs. Carlos Condit (30-8)
Luke Irwin: I can’t do it. I can’t in good faith pick against Carlos Condit. Not here, not now. Not when he has his best chance to be the welterweight champion of the world. It’s been a long time coming, but Robbie Lawler has been so good, so tough, and so reborn. I can’t pick anyone to defeat Lawler right now, but I can’t pick Condit to lose right now. Draw.
Nolan Howell: Lawler seems to overcome any stylistic matchup that would seemingly trouble him, almost an advanced sprawl and brawler. Condit should present some trouble with his range, but expect Lawler to fight his way inside and light Condit up. Lawler takes a competitive fight here. Lawler by unanimous decision.
Heavyweight Bout: Andrei Arlovski (25-10) vs. Stipe Miocic (13-2)
Luke Irwin: I think this is where the fairytale ends for the Pitbull. Miocic is very well-rounded, and save for a bizarre loss to Stefan Struve, Miocic isn’t weak in any area. Miocic via UD.
Nolan Howell: Arlovski is another revived pre-TUF UFC contender who suddenly started putting things together. At the cusp of a title shot, he runs into his stiffest competition in Miocic. Arlovski is likely the crisper striker, but Miocic can pick apart his defensive inefficiencies and test a chin that is still questionable. I think both guys will play it safe in such a high stakes fight and it will be ugly, where I favor the savvy of Arlovski. Arlovski by split decision.
Welterweight Bout: Albert Tumenov (16-2) vs. Lorenz Larkin (17-3)
Luke Irwin: Sleeper for FOTN right here, as Larkin has looked rejuvinated (and a little weird) at welterweight, and Tumenov has been kicking people’s heads off and punching their headless corpses. This is a really tough call here, I think they both keep swinging until someone hits and someone falls. Tumenov via R2 TKO.
Nolan Howell: While Larkin is flashy and truly relies on intangibles to pull off some unusual and exciting offense, Tumenov is the much more technical striker and will likely be able to handle anything Larkin throws at him. Tumenov by second-round TKO.
Featherweight Bout: Brian Ortega (9-0) vs. Diego Brandao (20-10)
Luke Irwin: Brandao can drag your grandmother into a fun fight, but he’s a gatekeeper at best and Ortega is a rising star with all the tools to defeat him. Ortega via R2 Submission.
Nolan Howell: Brandao generally only loses to guys in or close to the upper echelon when looking at his UFC record. This is a chance for Ortega to make that step, but it feels like too big of a hurdle against a guy who has faced some of the best and can be dangerous if he doesn’t lose his head. Brandao by first-round TKO.
Lightweight Bout: Abel Trujillo (12-7) vs. Tony Sims (12-3)
Luke Irwin: Yeah, this is a mismatch. Trujillo’s going to go full-on gorilla strength here. Trujillo via R1 KO.
Nolan Howell: Seems like a softball for an exciting fighter the UFC wants to keep as a gatekeeper. Trujillo by first-round knockout.
Bantamweight Bout: Masanori Kanehara (25-12-5) vs. Michael McDonald (16-3)
Luke Irwin: If McDonald is even 60% of what he was, he’ll maul Kanehara like a lion on a baby giraffe. McDonald via R1 TKO.
Nolan Howell: Very good matchmaking here to prove if McDonald really still has a passion for the sport with a gritty, but not terribly threatening veteran. McDonald will shake the rust off just fine. McDonald by second-round TKO.
Welterweight Bout: Alex Morono (11-3) vs. Kyle Noke (22-7-1)
Luke Irwin: This seems like the kind of the fight Noke will win to keep him firmly on the roster until an Australia card. Noka via R3 Submission.
Nolan Howell: Truthfully, know nothing about Morono. Noke is woefully inconsistent and is foreign card fodder for cheap pops in Australia. Seems like a trap fight he typically folds in. Morono by unanimous decision.
Women’s Strawweight Bout: Justine Kish (4-0) vs. Nina Ansaroff (6-4)
Luke Irwin: Ansaroff’s record is a little misleading, seeing as how her second and third professional fights were against Carla Esparza and Barb Honchak, respectively, and she lost both via decision. This is Kish’s UFC debut and Ansaroff’s redemption after losing to Juliana Lima. I’ll throw my hat in with an upset, that Kish’s muay thai catches Ansaroff out of nowhere and floors her. Kish via R1 KO.
Nolan Howell: Hard to say what Kish will have to offer after a decent absence, but will still take her and her ceiling to take this. Kish by second-round submission.
Lightweight Bout: Drew Dober (15-7) vs. Scott Holtzman (8-0)
Luke Irwin: Drew, in the words of Jack Parkman, you’re standing on the tracks and the train is coming through. A train full of hot sauce. Holtzman via R3 Submission.
Nolan Howell: Holtzman is an undefeated regional fighter who looks solid enough to be a card-opening mainstay for a few fights, but just seems like the type Dober feasts on. Dober by first-round submission.
Lightweight Bout: Dustin Poirier (18-4) vs. Joseph Duffy (14-1)
Luke Irwin: Ahhh, the ol’ punishment slot on Fight Pass because Dana White is a petulant child. Such a shame, because this could be a beautiful fight. Poirier is a fantastic fighter and a fluke punch to the back of his head when he ducked by Conor McGregor hid what could have been McGregor’s biggest test. He’ll take that out on Duffy. Poirier via R2 Submission.
Nolan Howell: As good as Poirier has looked in a new weight class, his confidence in his boxing always startles me because he is very susceptible to being hit. This will go back and forth and I think Poirier will find himself in some trouble, but Duffy doesn’t strike me as an explosive enough finisher to take out Poirier. Poirier by split decision.
Bantamweight Bout: Joe Soto (15-4) vs. Michinori Tanaka (10-1)
Luke Irwin: Tanaka is a fun fighter, but JMMA fighters tend to get wrecked in the UFC, and Soto came thisclose to being the UFC Bantamweight Champ. He’s going to run through Tanaka. Soto via R2 TKO.
Nolan Howell: Depends on what Soto shows up and maybe the competitive fight against Dillashaw was an apparition, but his ceiling seems higher. Soto by unanimous decision.
Welterweight Bout: Edgar Garcia (14-4) vs. Sheldon Westcott (8-3-1)
Luke Irwin: Westcott via UD.
Nolan Howell: Westcott by split decision.
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