UFC Welterweight Championship: Robbie Lawler (c) (27-10) vs. Tyron Woodley (15-3)
Luke Irwin: Lawler is too well-rounded to fall for the classic striker vs. wrestler bout, and Woodley falls in love with his striking far too often. There will come a day where Lawler can’t get in these wars anymore, but I don’t think it’ll be this day. Lawler stifles Woodley’s best efforts at wrestling and striking, probably gets busted up a little, but makes his charge in the championship rounds. Lawler via R4 TKO.
Women’s Strawweight Bout: Karolina Kowalkiewicz (9-0) vs. Rose Namajunas (5-2)
Luke: I’ve picked against Namajunas in literally every fight she’s ever had. I won’t do it again. She’s been a monsoon of a fighter of late and seems on a crash course with Joanna Violence. Namajunas via R3 Submission.
Welterweight Bout: Jake Ellenberger (30-11) vs. Matt Brown (20-14)
Luke: Ellenberger is an absolute shell of himself, and I have no idea why he’s even with the company, let alone on a Pay-Per-View main card. Brown will get a win and momentum. Brown via R1 TKO.
Bantamweight Bout: Erik Perez (15-6) vs. Francisco Rivera (11-6)
Luke: We know what Rivera will bring, it’s just a matter of if his opponent can withstand it or neutralize it, and I don’t think Goyito can. Rivera via R1 KO.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Ed Herman (23-11) vs. Nikita Krylov (20-4)
Luke: A longtime middleweight and a longtime heavyweight square off in the prelims, and both men love to take it to the ground and go for exotic and impressive submissions. When that’s the case, we either get a fantastic grappling match, or a sloppy kickboxing bout. I’ll be an optomist and say the the former. Krylove uses his size to stymie Herman and wear him down before finding his opening. Krylov via R2 Submission.
Welterweight Bout: Jorge Masvidal (29-11) vs. Ross Pearson (19-11)
Luke: Pearson is stepping in on short notice to make his first-ever foray into the welterweight division to face ultimate scrapper Jorge Masvidal. This is an easy darkhorse for FOTN and might take it in a walk, hadn’t the fact that Robbie goddamned Lawler is headlining. Pearson’s a smaller lightweight as is, so him fighting at 170 could be rough going for him. I expect nothing short of a crisp, tight, boxing contest, but Masvidal just has more horses, especially with a full training camp, and at a higher weight class. Masvidal via UD.
Heavyweight Bout: Anthony Hamilton (14-5) vs. Damian Grabowski (20-3)
Luke: I had high hopes for the Polish Pitbull when he came to the UFC, and after a setback against the heavy-handed Derrick Lewis in his debut, I expect him to easily take this one to bounce back. Grabowski via R1 Submission.
Flyweight Bout: Hector Sandoval (12-2) vs. Wilson Reis (20-6)
Luke: There’s obviously going to be some disappointment for Weis, going from title fight co-main event, to opening up the Fox Sports 2 prelims against a UFC newcomer. This is an extremely dangerous fight for Weis, because Sandoval is hungry and looking to make an impact against a title contender, while Weis will be much less motivated. I think Sandoval puts on the fight of his life, but Reis survives to keep his challenge for DJ. Reis via SD.
Welterweight Bout: Bogan Velickovic (14-3) vs. Michael Graves (6-0)
Luke: After Graves dispatched of the UFC’s latest hype project in Randy Brown, I think he keeps moving up the ladder. Graves via R2 Submission.
Flyweight Bout: Freddy Serrano ( 3-0) vs. Ryan Benoit (8-4)
Luke: TUF Latin America fighters don’t inspire the most hope in me, and Benoit had no problem ripping through Sergio Pettis. Benoit via R1 TKO.
Lightweight Bout: Cesar Arzamendia (7-2) vs. Damien Brown (15-9)
Luke: Arzamendia via UD.
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