Vacant UFC Light Heavyweight Championship: Alexander Gustafsson (18-4) vs. Jon Jones (22-1)
Nolan Howell: I think this is mostly Jones’s fight to lose, despite how some people scored the first fight. As Connor Ruebusch of Bloody Elbow put it earlier in the week, a lot of the first fight was surrounded in awe of an underdog performing so well against the soon-to-be greatest of all-time. Gus will still have to keep things moving and that doesn’t favor him over five rounds, especially when he will have to take all sorts of smaller, draining shots on the way to landing one punch that looks a lot more impressive. It will take Jones a round to recalibrate and pick his spots, but I think he does it much easier this time around. Jon Jones by unanimous decision, turned into a no contest.
UFC Women’s Featherweight Championship: Cris Cyborg (c) (20-1) vs. Amanda Nunes (16-4)
Nolan: Nunes won’t have as much of the physical advantage she sees at bantamweight and Cyborg will unlikely be troubled by the reach and perhaps diminished power Nunes brings into the fight. Not having the ability to keep Cyborg on the ends of her punches and Cyborg having walked down better strikers confidently in striking only settings, Cyborg is able to get inside and pummel Nunes for the victory. Cris Cyborg by second-round TKO.
Welterweight Bout: Carlos Condit (30-12) vs. Michael Chiesa (14-4)
Nolan: Though I think on an earlier day that Chiesa would be the perfect sort of rebound opponent for Condit with Condit’s striking advantage, it’s just hard to trust him these days. Michael Chiesa by first-round submission.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Corey Anderson (11-4) vs. Ilir Latifi (14-5)
Nolan: Anderson seems like the type of opponent that Latifi feasts on and he shouldn’t be too troubled by his striking while Anderson isn’t a good enough grappler to really bother Latifi with much else. Ilir Latifi by second-round TKO.
Featherweight Bout: Alexander Volkanovski (18-1) vs. Chad Mendes (18-4)
Nolan: Volkanovski is the more dangerous of the two fighters (though Mendes has made clear in recent years that he is no slouch striking anymore), but Mendes should be able to hang with him on the feet and has the wrestling to rely on. Unless Volkanovski is really truly special, on par with the opponents Mendes has lost to in McGregor and Aldo, Mendes should be able to control this. Chad Mendes by unanimous decision.
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