UFC Welterweight Championship: Kamaru Usman (c) (16-1) vs. Jorge Masvidal (35-13)
Luke Irwin: What an absolute nightmare for Usman. He goes from fighting an opponent with a very clear skillset making his first PPV headliner where the lights might get a little too bright for him, and now he faces a walking fire tornado who is unflappable, with no expectations or nothing to lose. Any other fighter than Masvidal and I’d say the late-replacement favors Usman, but Masvidal’s mine thrives on chaos. I have absolutely no idea how this fight will go, and I think Masvidal even touches Usman’s chin for a knockdown or two, but I think Usman recovers enough to make it to the next round enough and he wins enough rounds on the ground that it’ll get weird in the cards. Usman via SD.
UFC Featherweight Championship: Alexander Volkanovski (c) (21-1) vs. Max Holloway (21-5)
Luke: Volkanovski seems like he was built in a lab specifically to defeat Max Holloway. For the first time in a long time at featherweight, Holloway couldn’t control where the fight went and while he won probably a round, maybe two depending on your personal scorecard, he was never really winning the fight. While Holloway can make adjustments, sometime a fighter has a style that a fighter just can’t overcome. Volkanovski via UD.
Vacant UFC Bantamweight Championship: Jose Aldo (28-6) vs. Petr Yan (14-1)
Luke: Aldo has gone 2-4 in his last six, 3-5 in his last eight including three title fight losses. This is a lifetime achievement award opportunity for Aldo. The Jose Aldo you were used to watching is certainly gone. Yan isn’t a world-beater, and prime Aldo wrecks him, but this is 2020, and Aldo is who he was at this point. Yan via UD.
Women’s Strawweight Bout: Jessica Andrade (20-7) vs. Rose Namajunas (8-4)
Luke: 61.6. That’s the average height, in inches, of Namajunas’s four losses. That comes out to just a hair taller than 5’1.5″, or the exact height of one Jessica Andrade, who planted Namajunas on her head in Rose’s last fight with one of the most violent knockouts in UFC history. For all her brilliance against Joanna Jedrzejczyk, and make no mistake, no fighter has, or probably will ever, fight Joanna better than Rose has, but her weakness against smaller, aggressive, grappling, pace-pushers is documented. Very surprised Namajunas is the favorite, here. While I don’t think Andrade pulls a Mortal Kombat fatality against her again, I think Rose’s ring rust and I’m guessing a tentative approach, may do her in. Andrade via R2 TKO.
Women’s Flyweight Bout: Amanda Ribas (9-1) vs. Paige VanZant (8-4)
Luke: Paige has one foot out the door on her way to being a vague “celebrity”, especially after her comments that she made more on Dancing With the Stars than she did in her UFC career combined, so I’m guessing they’re going to use her while they have her to bring exposure to lesser-known talent, like Ribas, who is a much-better fighter. It’s Wrestling Booking 101, take the talent that’s leaving and put your in-house talent over them. If Ribas can defeat Mackenzie Dern and avoid her submission arsenal, PVZ should be no problem. Ribas via UD.
2020 Picks Record: 92-42
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