UFC 272: Masvidal vs Covington – Fight Card, UFC Odds and Best Bets

UFC 272 Masvidal vs Covington Fight Card, UFC Odds and Best Bets
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UFC272 takes places this Saturday, March 5, 2022 live from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Headlining the Pay Per View Card will be Colby “Chaos” Covington (16-3) taking on long-time friend, and now bitter rival, Jorge “Gamebred” Masvidal (35-15) in the Welterweight Division. Below, we’ll preview UFC 272, break down the fight odds, and give out our best bets for the Masvidal vs Covington main event.

UFC 272 Masvidal vs Covington | How to Watch UFC 272

  • 🥊 UFC PPV: UFC 272
  • 📅 UFC 272 Date: Saturday, March 5, 2022
  • 🕙 When is UFC 272: 10:00pm ET
  • 📺 TV Channel: UFC Pay-Per-View
  • 🏟 Where is UFC 272: T-Mobile Arena | Las Vegas, Nevada
  • 🏆 UFC 272 Main Event: Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal
  • 📊 UFC Stats: Covington 16-3-0 | Masvidal 35-15-0
  • 🎲 UFC Odds: Covington (-325) | Masvidal (+275)

UFC Odds — Covington vs Masvidal Odds

Covington opened as the favourite in fight at -190 (1.53), but money coming in on “Chaos” early dropped the line to -325 (1.31).

Check out the chart below for a full breakdown of UFC 272 odds from BetOnline, one of the best UFC betting sites.

Fight Odds on the Moneyline Masvidal vs Covington

Covington (-325) finds himself as the overwhelming favorite for the UFC 272 main event fight. While Masvidal will be tough to KO, we still have Covington coming away as the winner here.

Moneyline Odds Play
Jorge Masvidal +275 BetOnline logo
Colby Covington -325 BetOnline logo

 

Fight Odds on Total Rounds Masvidal vs Covington

At -145 odds, the top sportsbooks are giving a slight edge to the over in this fight. While not one of our UFC best bets, pick the main event bout to go over 4.5 rounds on Saturday night.

Total Rounds Odds Play
Over 4.5 -145 BetOnline logo
Under 4.5 +125 BetOnline logo

 

UFC 272 Fight Card

UFC 272 Fight Card

Below, you’ll find the full UFC272 Fight Card.

UFC 272 Card:

  • Colby Covington vs. Jorge Masvidal @ Welterweight (170 lbs)
  • Rafael dos Anjos vs. Renato Moicano @ Catchweight (160 lbs + 5 round fight)
  • Edson Barboza vs. Bryce Mitchell @ Featherweight (145 lbs)
  • Kevin Holland vs. Alex Oliveira @ Welterweight (170 lbs)
  • Greg Hardy vs. Serghei Spivac @ Heavyweight (265 lbs)

UFC 272 ESPN/ESPN+ Late ‘Prelims’ Undercard:

  • Jalin Turner vs. Jamie Mullarkey @ Lightweight (155 lbs)
  • Marina Rodriguez vs. Yan Xiaonan @ Strawweight (115 lbs)
  • Kennedy Nzechukwu vs. Nick Negumereanu @ Light Heavyweight (205lbs)
  • Mariya Agapova vs. Maryna Moroz @ Flyweight (125 lbs)

UFC 272 ESPN+/Fight Pass Early ‘Prelims’ Undercard:

  • Brian Kelleher vs. Umar [email protected] Bantamweight (135 lbs)
  • Tim Elliott vs. Tagir Ulanbekov @ Flyweight (135 lbs)
  • Devonte Smith vs. Ludovit Klein @ Lightweight (155 lbs, Klein moving up in weight)
  • Dustin Jacoby vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk @ Light Heavyweight (205 lbs)

UFC Stats

UFC 272 Masvidal vs Covington Preview

In order to properly breakdown this fight, we will have to take a deeper dive into this matchup.

Colby Covington — UFC Bio

  • Rank: #2 Welterweight
  • Age: 34
  • Country: United States
  • Height: 5’11 (180 cm)
  • Reach: 72” (183cm)
  • Weight: 170lbs (77kgs)
  • Stance: Orthodox

Covington — UFC Record and Stats

  • Overall Record: 16-3
  • Fights Won by KO/TKO: 2 (12.5% of wins)
  • Fights Won by Submission: 6 (37.5% of wins)
  • Fights Won by Decision: 8 (50% of wins)
  • Fights Lost by KO/TKO: 1 (33% of losses)
  • Fights Lost by Submission: 1 (33% of losses)
  • Fights Lost by Decision: 1 (33% of losses)

Jorge Masvidal  — UFC Bio

  • Rank: #7 Welterweight
  • Age: 37
  • Country: United States
  • Height: 5’11 (180 cm)
  • Reach: 74” (183cm)
  • Weight: 170lbs (77kgs)
  • Stance: Orthodox

Masvidal — UFC Record and Stats

  • Overall Record: 35-15
  • Fights Won by KO/TKO: 16 (45.7% of wins)
  • Fights Won by Submission: 2 (5.7% of wins)
  • Fights Won by Decision: 17 (48.6% of wins)
  • Fights Lost by KO/TKO: 2 (13% of losses)
  • Fights Lost by Submission: 2 (13% of losses)
  • Fights Lost by Decision: 11 (73% of losses)

UFC 272: Masvidal vs Covington Preview

These 2 fighters are very familiar with each other having been training partners and friends. Each fighter will know where their opponent’s strengths and weaknesses lie. It will be interesting to see how each fighter approaches this fight.

Can Jorge Masvidal Bounce Back From Back-To-Back Losses?

Jorge Masvidal vs Colby Covington

Jorge Masvidal has been fighting professionally since 2003 competing in major organizations such as Bellator and Strikeforce. A UFC veteran of 9 years and 20 UFC fights, “Gamebred” has been a treat to watch. Before starting his professional fighting career, he actually fought in backyards as part of Backyard Brawls with Kimbo Slice. So Masvidal has seen it all.

A striker, standing in orthodox, really uses a variety of different strikes including spinning back kicks, flying knees and hard shots to the body. Masvidal also holds the UFC record for the fastest KO/TKO of Ben Askren in just 5 seconds.

Landing 4.22 strikes per minute at 48% accuracy, while absorbing 3.01 strikes per minute but at 65% accuracy, Masvidal prefers to keep the fight standing and only attempts 1.54 takedowns every 15 minutes. Over his last 9 fights, Masvidal has completed only 2 takedowns.

Masvidal is coming off of back to back losses to the current UFC Welterweight Champ, Kamaru Usman, where in July 2020, he lost a unanimous decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46) and more recently in April 2021, he lost by a 2nd round Knockout. So Masvidal will be coming in on a 10 month layoff and a brutal KO loss, which are often red flags.

Can Colby Covington Keep His #1 Contender Status?

Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal

Colby Covington was a wrestler in High School in Oregon and then at the college level at Iowa Central Community College and was actually roommates with future UFC champ, Jon Jones. Covington was a decorated college wrestler who then started his professional fighting career in 2012 where he strung together 5 wins before getting signed to the UFC in 2014. Part of the storyline of UFC272 was that Jorge Masvidal took Covington under his wing and they trained and lived together with Masvidal showing Covington the ropes of the fight game.

Covington is 11-3 in the UFC and currently the #1 ranked title contender. However, like Masvidal, Covington has also lost twice to the current UFC Welterweight Champion Kamaru Usman, so even at #1 title contender and if Covington were to beat Masvidal, it would be unlikely to see Covington get another title shot any time soon.

Colby has kept that wrestling identity in his fights attempting an average of 4.1 takedowns every 15 minutes. Striking wise, Covington lands 4.14 strikes per minute at 38% accuracy and absorbs 3.09 strikes per minute at 55% accuracy. Only 2 of Covington’s 16 wins have come by TKO, and that’s mostly because he uses his strikes to set up his takedowns. Once on the ground, Colby has a smothering top game where he looks to rain down some ground and pound or hunt for the submission, but making sure to keep top control.

Covington has wins over some of the top fighters in the UFC welterweight division, such as former champs Tyron Woodley and Robbie Lawler, and top contenders like Damian Maia, Rafael Dos Anos and will look to add Jorge Masvidal to that list.

UFC Betting Trends  — Masvidal vs Covington

Let’s take a look at how these two fighters have looked in their previous fights

Masvidal

  • Masvidal has finished all 5 of his last 5 wins
  • Masvidal has lost by decision in 8 of his last 9 losses
  • Of those 8 decision losses, 4 of them have been by Split Decision

Covington

  • Covington has won by decision in 5 of his last 6 wins
  • When Covington lands more takedowns than his opponents, he is 10-1
  • Of Covington’s 6 UFC Decision wins, all have been by Unanimous Decision

Free UFC Picks — UFC Best Bets For Masvidal vs Covington

Colby Covington vs Jorge Masvidal will come down to whether or not Colby can land the takedown on Masvidal. In his last 7 fights, excluding vs Demian Maia (one of the top Brazilian Jiu Jitsu fighters in the UFC) Covington has landed:

  • 3 TDs vs Tyron Woodley
  • 10 vs Robbie Lawler
  • 7 vs Rafael Dos Anjos
  • 8 vs Dong Hyun Kim
  • 12 vs Bryan Baberena
  • 6 vs Max Griffin
  • 5 vs Jonathan Meunier.

On the flip side, Masvidal fought Usman who is also a wrestler and was taken down 7 times in their 2 fights. Before that, Masvidal hasn’t really fought a real wrestler (excluding the 5 second KO of Ben Askren) since maybe Demian Maia, who also isn’t really a wrestler, but also wants the fight on the ground.

So the short answer is that Covington should be able to land the takedown and keep top position. Also as the fight goes on, it only favors Covington more as he pushes the pace and has great cardio. If Masvidal is to win, he needs to land some big shots or go to the body early. Between both guys training together and knowing each other’s tendencies, the fact that Covington isn’t really a finisher, and Masvidal is very difficult to finish, this has a decision written all over it. However, the odds look to have already taken that stance with the o4.5 rounds at -155 and fight to go decision at -135.

Here is how I see the fight:

  • Masvidal KO/TKO: 15% (+567 or better)
  • Masvidal sub: 5% (+1900 or better)
  • Masvidal Decision: 15% (+567 or better)
  • Covington KO/TKO: 10% (+900 or better)
  • Covington Sub: 10% (+900 or better)
  • Covington Decision: 45% (+122 or better)

Therefore, I have the odds:

  • Covington -186 or better
  • Masvidal: +186 or better
  • Fight goes to decision -150 or better

The pick is Covington to win, but the moneyline is a little too expensive to bet straight up. The value is on Masvidal at +280. However, BetOnline is offering a few other UFC bets that might provide some better value.

UFC Picks Tonight — Jorge Masvidal Win Inside Distance – Goes Distance = No Action at +140

Meaning, if Jorge Masvidal wins by KO/TKO or submission, we are a winner. If the fight goes to decision, then the bet is a push. So the only way we lose is if Covington can finish Masvidal.

But if you like Colby Covington to win, rather than take his moneyline, I would consider betting:

UFC Picks — Colby Covington -5.5 Points at -165

This bet means that if Colby finishes Masvidal by TKO or submission we win, but if Covington wins by decision, he needs to win by at least 6 points on the judges’ scorecards. For Example, if all 3 judges score the fight 49-46 for Covington, then he would win by 12 points (49-46 x 3 judges).

To claim free bets for UFC 272: Masvidal vs Covington, click below.

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