UFC 274: Oliveira vs Gaethje Odds, Predictions, and Best Bets

The Ultimate Fighting Championship 274: Oliveira vs Gaethje takes place on Saturday, May 7, 2022, back at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. Headlining the main event is a matchup between current Lightweight Champion Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira and former interim Lightweight Champion Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje.

I’ll break down the fight below:

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UFC 274: Oliveira vs Gaethje | How to Watch the UFC Fights Tonight

  • 🥊 UFC: 274
  • 📅 UFC 274 Date: Saturday, May 7, 2022
  • 🕙 When is UFC 274: 10:00 pm ET
  • 🏟 Where is UFC 274: Footprint Center | Phoenix, AZ
  • 📺 TV Channel: Pay Per View
  • 🏆 UFC Main Event: Charles Oliveria vs Justin Gaethje
  • 📊 UFC Stats: Charles Olivera 32-8-0 | Justin Gaethje 23-3-0
  • 🎲 UFC 274: Olivera (-170) | Gaethje (+150)

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UFC Odds — Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje Odds

Charles Oliveira opened up as the favorite at -205 with the comeback on Gaethje at +175. The line has stayed pretty steady since the open with the current line Oliveira-170 and the comeback on Gaethje +150. The full breakdown of odds from BetOnline can be seen below:

UFC Betting Odds for Charles Oliveira vs Justin Gaethje Odds

Moneyline Odds Play
Charles Oliveira -170 BetOnline logo
Justin Gaethje +150 BetOnline logo

*UFC odds as of May 5, 2022

UFC 274 Odds on Oliveira vs Gaethje Total Rounds

The top sportsbooks in the US have set the total rounds at 2.5 with the odds slightly favoring the over, suggesting that this fight could go to decision. Will this fight go the distance?

Total Rounds Odds Play
Over 2.5 +125 BetOnline logo
Under 2.5 -145 BetOnline logo

*UFC odds as of May 5, 2022

UFC Stats — UFC Fighter Stats

In order to properly break down, the UFC fights this weekend, we will have to take a deeper dive into this matchup.

Below, we’ll break down each fighter’s bio, record, and UFC stats.

Charles Oliveira  — UFC Bio, Record, and Stats

  • Rank: Champion
  • Age: 32
  • Country: Brazil
  • Height: 5’10” (178 cm)
  • Reach: 74″ (188 cm)
  • Weight 155 lbs (70.3 kgs)
  • Stance: Orthodox

Charles Oliveira — UFC Fight Stats

  • Overall Record: 32-8-0
  • Fights Won by KO/TKO: 9 (28% of wins)
  • Fights Won by Submission: 20 (63% of wins)
  • Fights Won by Decision: 3 (9% of wins)
  • Fights Lost by KO/TKO: 4 (50% of losses)
  • Fights Lost by Submission: 3 (38% of losses)
  • Fights Lost by Decision: 1 (12% of losses)

Justin Gaethje  — UFC Bio, Record, and Stats

  • Rank: #1
  • Age: 33
  • Country: United States
  • Height: 5’11” (181 cm)
  • Reach: 70” (178 cm)
  • Weight 155.6 lbs (70.6 kgs)
  • Stance: Orthodox

Justin Gaethje — UFC Fight Stats

  • Overall Record: 23-3-1
  • Fights Won by KO/TKO: 18 (78% of wins)
  • Fights Won by Submission: 2 (9% of wins)
  • Fights Won by Decision: 3 (13% of wins)
  • Fights Lost by KO/TKO: 2 (67% of losses)
  • Fights Lost by Submission: 1 (33% of losses)
  • Fights Lost by Decision: 0

UFC 274: Oliveira vs Gaethje Predictions and Picks

The Ultimate Fighting Championship 274: Oliveira vs Gaethje takes place on Saturday, May 7, 2022, back at the Footprint Center in Phoenix, Arizona. Headlining the main event is a matchup between current Lightweight Champion Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira and former interim Lightweight Champion Justin “The Highlight” Gaethje.

Charles Oliveira currently holds the record for most UFC fights, UFC wins, and most UFC wins by submissions, but can he defend his newly received Lightweight Championship belt.

Will Charles Oliveira be able to get this fight to the ground?

Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira is not your typical wrestler but does average2.5 takedowns per 15 minutes. Most of those takedowns are set up from body lock trips against the cage and rarely come from a power double takedown. On the flip side, Oliviera sports a 57% takedown defense, which is surprising that anybody would want to go to the ground with Charles because he is such a decorated grappler. This is evident as Charles Oliveira averages 2.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes. On the feet, Charles stays busy landing 3.44 strikes per minute, striking from the Orthodox stance, while absorbing 3.13.

Can Oliveira survive the pace and output from Justin Gaethje?

Justin Gaethje is a very decent college wrestler but surprisingly has not attempted a takedown in his UFC career, while also never attempting a submission. Gaethje prefers to keep the fight standing and currently holds a decent 73% takedown defense. Gaethje pushes a crazy pace at 7.50 strikes landed per minute, while also absorbing a whopping 7.81 strikes per minute. Gaethje has been in some wars and doesn’t mind trading blow for blow as his chin has held up for the most part. It’s a pace that very few fights can keep especially in a 5 round fight.

Free UFC Picks — UFC Best Bets For UFC 274: Oliveira vs Gaethje

This fight is very interesting and could go a variety of ways. I think the safest and most realistic path to victory for the Champion Charles Oliveira is to try and get this fight to the ground. Theoretically, Oliveira doesn’t necessarily need to land a takedown if he can get to Justin’s back in a scramble, but again at his core Justin Gaethje is a wrestler and is difficult to get down, especially from the clinch. On the feet, Charles Oliveira has decent striking and likes to use a Muay Thai stance that keeps his front foot light off the ground and doesn’t really move in and out of range, instead he tries to block the incoming shots.

Against a fighter like Justin Gaethje, I think this might be a recipe for disaster. Gaethje uses very hard leg kicks and if Oliveira is light on his front leg, he leaves himself open to the leg kick and could knock him off balance. In addition, that stance also opens up shots to the body and uppercuts from the clinch. Justin Gaethje has great dirty boxing in close, so if Charles Oliveira does engage in the clinch, I expect Gaethje to throw elbows and punches over the top, and uppercuts up the middle. It’s important to also remember that Charles Oliveira has been rocked badly in each of his last 2 fights. But his opponents Michael Chandler and Dustin Poirer elected to jump into Charles’s guard while he was on the ground. I expect Justin Gaethje to just let Charles back up.

Here’s how I have the fight broken down:

  • Oliveira TKO: 15%
  • Oliveira Sub: 30%
  • Oliveira Dec: 10%
  • Gaethje TKO: 30%
  • Gaethje Sub: 0%
  • Gaethje Dec: 15%

This translates to:

  • Charles Oliveira ML: -122
  • Justin Gaethje ML: +122
  • Fight goes to decision: +300
  • Fight does not go to decision: -300

Given where the current line is at (Charles Oliviera -170), I think all of the value is gone from the line and I slightly favor Justin Gaethje at these odds.

However, given the pace of these two fighters in a 5 round fight, it’s hard to see this fight going to a decision. The under 2.5 at -150 is also a good bet considering that this fight will probably finish in the first half more often than the second half. Noting that, and also that Justin Gaethje has never attempted submission and he’s fighting one of the best submission fighters in UFC history, I think it’s safer to bet:

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