Lightweight Bout: James Vick (13-1) vs. Justin Gaethje (18-2)
Nolan Howell: It is hard to say when the mileage is going to start affecting the system of Justin Gaethje, after two KO losses and a KO win against Michael Johnson in a career-altering (for any other fighter, anyway) brawl. Against Vick, Gaethje is running into a fighter suddenly putting together a competent or at least effective striking game, as the formerly submission-based Vick has picked up TKO wins in two fights before his last victory.
Vick is the much taller fighter at 6’3″ with a 76″ reach, while Gaethje is at 5’11” and 70″. Vick has found some success using that range to his advantage, but is still very much a work in progress and it will be hard for someone still working on that aspect of their game to stop the pressure striking of Gaethje. Because of the lack of consistent power and technical prowess standing to really catch Gaethje coming in swinging, look for Gaethje to grind Vick down throughout until something sends him spiraling down to the drain to a late stoppage. Justin Gaethje by third-round TKO.
Featherweight Bout: Andre Fili (18-5) vs. Michael Johnson (17-13)
Nolan: This seems like the Michael Johnson bounce-back fight in his second appearance at 145. Johnson pretty much has the edge on Fili in every aspect of the game besides submissions, but has faced more competent submission threats before as well. Barring a complete gas-tank dump early in the fight, Johnson should be picking Fili off with the quicker striking. Michael Johnson by second-round TKO.
Women’s Strawweight Bout: Angela Hill (8-4) vs. Cortney Casey (7-6)
Nolan: Both Hill and Casey have settled as really solid gatekeepers who generally only lose when they take the step up against more elite talent in the strawweight division. With more of a ground game to rely on and a size advantage, I favor Casey. Cortney Casey by unanimous decision.
Welterweight Bout: Bryan Barberena (13-5) vs. Jake Ellenberger (31-14)
Nolan: This feels like the classic Ellenberger saves his job fight before going on another three-fight losing streak, but at 33 and with the decline in skill, it just isn’t a safe bet anymore and it was never really a safe bet in the first place. Bryan Barberena by first-round KO.
Flyweight Bout: Deiveson Figueiredo (14-0) vs. John Moraga (19-6)
Nolan: Seems like a step up for Figueiredo and Moraga should be able to control where the fight goes if he sees any danger. John Moraga by unanimous decision.
Middleweight Bout: Eryk Anders (10-1) vs. Tim Williams (15-4)
Nolan: Williams is a submission specialist who seems to have just enough talent to be a good regional talent, but that won’t translate as much in the UFC and especially against the likes of a blue-chipper athlete developing in higher ranks like Anders. Eryk Anders by first-round KO.
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