Last Event Winner: Luke Irwin (6-5)
Lucas Bourdon: 9-4 .692
Ben Kohn: 120-55 .686
TC Engel: 83-46 .643
Josh Hall: 35-21 .625
Luke Irwin: 193-118 .621
Earl Montclair: 96-65 .596
Nolan Howell: 108-85 .560
Naomi Kamornick: 6-5 .545
Dan Galvan: 5-6 .455
Heavyweight Bout: Mark Hunt (9-8-1) vs. Roy Nelson (20-9)
Luke Irwin: By now it’s been proven that Roy has zero interest in working the ground game with anyone, even in instances where he’d have the match won in seconds. So he’s going to try and trade with Mark Hunt, which is one of the worst decisions, along with trying meth for the first time, that a human can make. On the ground, he taps Hunt in under a minute. On the feet, he gets his shots in, but Hunt’s head is made of materials not of this world. Hunt via R2 KO.
Nolan Howell: The overstated ground game of Roy Nelson and the understated takedown defense of Mark Hunt will keep this fight on the feet. Nelson simply doesn’t have a way aside from a trip game we haven’t seen to get Hunt to the mat. On the feet, I’ll take a K1 GP champion with some technical MMA boxing over a looping right hand. Though Hunt has been wobbled by these strikes in his two previous fights, it is really the only thing he has to worry about here. Five rounds of striking from Hunt is something not many can take and I think Nelson crumbles. Mark Hunt by third-round KO.
Ben Kohn: This bout honestly scares me a little bit. Hunt is definitely the more technical striker of the two but Nelson doesn’t really do the whole “hit me hard enough and I get KO’d” thing except on 1 occasion. Hunt is quicker, and has the TDD to keep the fight standing and also seems to have developed a serviceable ground game to boot. But what worries me is that Roy Nelson’s money punch is the overhand right, something he misses against any fighter with the speed and footwork to get out of the way. However, that’s not Hunt’s style of defense and he’s been cracked by overhand rights multiple times before. JDS even dropped him like a brick in the first round of their fight with a vicious overhand right. I am worried Hunt may take 1 to many of those shots, especially if he gets tired but….I’m still picking him. I don’t see a KO for Hunt here (crazy I know) but Nelson is far more durable than Struve, Bigfoot, and the others Hunt has KO’d in his UFC run. Mark Hunt by UD.
Lightweight Bout: Myles Jury (14-0) vs. Takanori Gomi (35-9)
Luke Irwin: Yikes, tough home draw for Gomi here. Jury has to be in possession of the quietest 5-0 start in UFC history. He’s too quick, he’s too well-rounded, and Gomi moves like he’s walking through pudding these days. Jury via SD.
Nolan Howell: Really nothing of substance to say here. Jury has Gomi beat in all ares other than power in strikes. Myles Jury by second-round submission.
Ben Kohn: Jury is going to make a lot of old Pride fans extremely sad. He’s a far better grappler, is bigger, stronger, more athletic, and will ground the Fireball Kid, possibly submitting him, but I think he makes it to a decision. Being submitted by Nick Diaz doesn’t make me doubt your submission defense skills. Myles Jury by dominating UD.
Welterweight Bout: Amir Sadollah (6-4) vs. Yoshihiro Akiyama (13-5)
Luke Irwin: Both men have been out for at least two years. Akiyama’s base won’t allow Sadollah to ugly it up too much, so I see no reason why Sexyama can’t punch him in rapid order for fifteen minutes. Akiyama via UD.
Nolan Howell: Akiyama got outstruck by Jake Shields. While Sadollah could be tossed around with ease here, he should be competent enough technical on the ground to negate the judoka. On the feet, it will be the crisper, minimal power approach of Sadollah against the winging, speedy strikes of Akiyama. This is Akiyama’s chance to prove me wrong, but Sadollah can pick his way to a decision. Yoshihiro Akiyama by unanimous decision.
Ben Kohn: Sexyama is finally being given an easy fight and Joe Silva probably got over him sleeping with his wife, it would seem. The sex machine has serviceable striking, is incredibly tough, and has excellent clinch throws and strong top control. Sadollah could pull out a sub if Sexyama gets careless but I see him being outworked for 3 rounds. Yoshihiro Akiyama by incredibly sexy UD.
Women’s Bantamweight Bout: Miesha Tate (14-5) vs. Rin Nakai (16-0-1)
Luke Irwin: No crooked Japanese judges or refs to help their goddess here, and Miesha is going to just roll through her. Tate via R1 Submission.
Nolan Howell: Nakai won’t be easy to get to the ground with her base, but Tate’s wrestling is sharp enough to challenge it. Add the improved kickboxing and put a dash of submission prowess and there you have it. Miesha Tate by second-round TKO.
Ben Kohn: Meisha is bigger, stronger, has faced stronger comepition, was not aided by favorable promotional tactics (title shot given off loss is not what I mean FYI), and is also a better grappler and striker than Rin. Rin is strong and a good scrambler with sneakt subs but for all her muscle, her ground and pound is not especially dangerous. Tate has this one. Meisha Tate by UD.
Welterweight Bout: Kiichi Kunimoto (17-5-2) vs. Richard Walsh (8-1)
Luke Irwin: Kunimoto is a scrappy journeyman, and I don’t trust any TUF fighter whose only fight was on the TUF finale. Fight a real fighter first. Kunimoto via R3 Submission.
Nolan Howell: Walsh is game and can ugly this fight up, but Kunimoto probably has the technique edge wherever this goes. Kiichi Kunimoto by first-round submission.
Ben Kohn: Kunimoto completely outgrappled Sarafian in his last fight and has a strong grappling and submission game. Walsh is tough but I don’t see this going the distance. Kiichi Kunimoto by Submission Round 2.
Flyweight Bout: Jon Delos Reyes (7-3) vs. Kyoji Horiguchi (13-1)
Luke Irwin: Welp, Reyes isn’t going to have anything to say about this fight, because most of his teeth will be in the process of being removed. Horiguchi via R2 KO.
Nolan Howell: While Reyes is tough as they come, Horiguchi can match that and then some with his speedy striking and takedowns. It may be tough in the beginning, but Horiguchi has too much to offer. Kyoji Horiguchi by second-round TKO.
Ben Kohn: Everyone seems to like Horiguchi by KO and it’s very tempting but I think Reyes is game and tough enough to last the three rounds, albeit after getting his ass kicked. Kyoji Horiguchi by UD.
Bantamweight Bout: Alex Caceres (10-6) vs. Masanori Kanehara (23-11-5)
Luke Irwin: This has been a long, long, long time coming for Kanehara, who’s been all up and down the roads in Japan and Europe and thi has been a long time coming. Caceres is going to bring the graps something fierce, but it’s not going to be anything Kanehara hasn’t seen. He’s been in the ring with Zombie, with Hioki, with Omigawa, Maeda, and countless others. I think this is a hell of a fight, but I think Kanehara’s striking keeps Leroy at bay. Kanehara via UD.
Nolan Howell: Caceres has too many tools for Kanehara to handle. His unorthodox striking, though powerless at times, can help him dictate where this fight takes place and that should be enough. Add in his adept scrambling and it makes it clear that Bruce Leroy has got the glow. Alex Caceres by unanimous decision.
Ben Kohn: While Caceres has an excellent scramble game and sneaky subs, I don’t think he catchs Kanehara, who’s submission losses all came in the beginning of his career. Alex Caceres by UD.
Featherweight Bout: Katsunori Kikuno (22-6-2) vs. Sam Sicilia (13-4)
Luke Irwin: Sicilia is a fine fighter, but Kikuno is too nasty with strikes and will neutralize anything he wants to do. I think Kikuno gets it done here. Kikuno via R1 TKO.
Nolan Howell: Sicilia should actually have the edge here if he plays his cards right and gets inside on Kikuno. Kikuno is rather slow and plodding and relies on specialty strikes too often. Should Kikuno bring his best, it would be his fight to lose. However, Sicilia’s pace and power can cut through the unorthodox defense and style to land a finisher. Sam Sicilia by first-round TKO.
Ben Kohn: Kikuno by UD.
Welterweight Bout: Hyun-Gyu Lim (12-4-1) vs. Takenori Sato (17-9-7)
Luke Irwin: Lim is a fantastic striker who will pepper Sato with all kinds of pain. Lim via R2 TKO.
Nolan Howell: Squash match. Hyun-Gyu Lim by first-round TKO.
Ben Kohn: Lim by KO and it will not be pretty.
Bantamweight Bout: Kyung-Ho Kang (12-7) vs. Michinori Tanaka (10-0)
Luke Irwin: Always be wary of Brazilians, Japanese, or Xplode fighters with dubious-looking records, but I like Tanaka and he comes from legit promotions and good stock. Underrated fight here. Tanaka via SD.
Nolan Howell: Tanaka is markedly more athletic than the gangly Kang and that will be evident on the feet. The mat exchange may be closer to event, but Tanaka just has more tools and intangibles packed away. Michinori Tanaka by second-round submission.
Ben Kohn: Tanaka by UD.
Lightweight Bout: Johnny Case (18-4) vs. Kazuki Tokudome (12-5-1)
Luke Irwin: Tokudome isn’t a really UFC-caliber who’s being kept around for Japan cards, and while Case is a fine fighter, he’s not a barnburner, but he’s good enough to put away Tokudome. Case via UD.
Nolan Howell: Case claims to have a wrestling background and trains out of a solid camp. Though he has some shoddy Midwest US MMA credentials in his record, Tokudome simply hasn’t impressed in any fashion aside from toughness. Johnny Case by unanimous decision.
Ben Kohn: Kazuki Tokudome by UD.
Featherweight Bout: Dan Hooker (11-4) vs. Maximo Blanco (10-6-1)
Luke Irwin: Blanco isn’t anywhere near the Sengoku king he was, he’s 2-4 in his last six and his last win was over Andy Ogle. He’s cannon fodder, and Hooker’s win over Ian Entwistle is better than most of Blanco’s wins alone. Hooker via R2 TKO.
Nolan Howell: This should be a winnable fight for Blanco in pretty much every realm. Still, he is Maximo Blanco. I think he’ll stay out of his own way enough to win here. Maximo Blanco by unanimous decision.
Ben Kohn: Maximo Blanco KO Round 2.
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