Last Event Winner: Nolan Howell (7-1)
Lucas Bourdon: 9-4 .692
Ben Kohn: 114-52 .687
TC Engel: 83-46 .643
Josh Hall: 35-21 .625
Luke Irwin: 176-106 .624
Earl Montclair: 90-58 .608
Naomi Kamornick: 3-2 .600
Nolan Howell: 98-78 .557
Dan Galvan: 5-6 .455
Middleweight Bout: Gegard Mousasi (35-4-2) vs. Ronaldo Souza (20-3)
Luke Irwin: You can’t take their first fight at face value because it was so flukey, so throw that out. I think this is a fascinating fight because Mousasi has improved his grappling so much and Jacare has improved his striking so much. They improved their weaknesses to the point of being outstandingly well-rounded fighters. I don’t think this is going to be a barnburner, but an expertly-crafted chess match where one man slightly comes out ahead. Souza via SD.
Nolan Howell: Souza’s improved standup will be good enough for him to survive and get this fight where it needs to go. There, while Souza is obviously the more credentialed grappler, Mousasi is competent enough to hold off submissions for a bit. I think this goes into deep waters and Souza is too active on the ground and standing for a methodical and plodding Mousasi. Ronaldo “Jacare” Souza by unanimous decision.
Earl Montclair: Jacare has looked so damn good since coming to the UFC. As noted before, his stand up is vastly improved and he fights with an aggression that Mousasi just doesn’t possess. I have a more intense and urgent look on my face when trying to decide which type of Blizzard to order at Dairy Queen than Gegard does when he fights. I think Souza puts a serious stamp on this fight and comes out the clear #1 Contender at 185. Ronaldo Souza, Submission, Round 3.
Ben Kohn: Seeing as I was not able to finish my breakdown, I shall go a bit more in depth on this one. Mousasi’s striking really is among the best in the division and that will cause a few problems for Jacare. While his striking is way better than it used to be, and he generates lots of power, Jacare is definitely among the wrestleboxer mold in his striking style, relying heavily on his rear hand and leg strikes to bully his opponents back. Mousasi on the other hand stalks his opponents relentlessly with his excellent boxing and defensive movement. Usually against grapplers, he hunches forward to help with his TDD and Jacare needs to exploit this to get Mousasi to his weakest area, defending takedowns against the fence. Hard straight rights down the pipe and kicking to the body and legs should be Jacare’s plan of attack, force the better striker against the fence and take him down. Mousasi needs to continuously push forward as Jacare is not good at fighting will moving back and is a bit gun-shy when forced back. Whoever wins the battle of pressure can control the fight. On the ground, Mousasi’s lack of urgency could get him in trouble but he looked way more active in his fight with Munoz in the grappling which is a good sign. Passive guard play against the best guard passer in MMA and possibly BJJ is a bad idea. Overall, this will probably be a back and forth fight momentum wise, but I think Jacare will control the fight more than Mousasi. Jacare by UD.
Heavyweight Bout: Alistair Overeem (37-13) vs. Ben Rothwell (33-9)
Luke Irwin: Overeem’s two UFC losses have followed the same formula: Overeem beats the shit out of his opponent, opponent rallies back to finish him. Rothwell doesn’t have that sort of resiliency or gas tank for that and I think he gets waxed early. Overeem via R1 KO.
Nolan Howell: What scares me is Rothwell’s resiliency, as proven in his win over Brendan Schaub and ability to take a merciless beating in losses to Mark Hunt and Cain Velasquez. Still, Overeem has all the tools to do whatever he wants, provided he doesn’t have the dreaded Overeem lapse. Alistair Overeem by first-round KO.
Earl Montclair: I don’t expect a whole lot out of this. This will look like the Mir fight and once again, Overeem will underwhelm. Alistair Overeem, Unanimous Decision.
Ben Kohn: MediumReem will be interesting to watch. Rothwell is tough but slow and an enigma at this point as his fight with Vera was….ya weird. Rothwell’s power could be a problem for Reem and his bad defense but if Reem can avoid getting tired and tagged, he should easily beat Rothwell on skill alone. Overeem by KO round 2.
Heavyweight Bout: Derrick Lewis (11-2) vs. Matt Mitrione (7-3)
Luke Irwin: Lewis is gonna come out swinging and I think Mitrione is too proud/dumb to adapt. Lewis via R1 KO.
Nolan Howell: Mitrione’s striking is slept on. While not the most technical guy in the world, he tends to get the job done against strikers comparable to Lewis. Lewis definitely has the one-shot advantage in power, but I think Mitrione is sleek enough to get the win here. Matt Mitrione by second-round TKO.
Earl Montclair: Mitrione is in rough shape here. Lewis may not be the most polished guy (neither is Meathead) but he hits like a goddamn truck. This is going to be devastating. No blinking. Derrick Lewis, MASSIVE KO, Round 1.
Ben Kohn: Difficult fight to pick and I think it comes down to how Matt will deal with the first real hard shots Lewis delivers. Mitrione is more skilled and a better athlete and packs a wallop himself but I wonder if he can withstand Lewis’s raw power. I got Mitrione in this one but it’s tentative at best. Mitrione by KO round 2.
Lightweight Bout: Joe Lauzon (23-9) vs. Michael Chiesa (11-1)
Luke Irwin: God, this makes me sad, but I just think Lauzon is shot. Ugh. Cheisa via R2 TKO.
Nolan Howell: Chiesa stood in there on the feet with Masvidal, which is an impressive feat. Still, Lauzon has faced the better competition and I would believe has the edge on grappling. Lauzon is like a more polished Chiesa, essentially. Chiesa has the raw skill everywhere, while Lauzon has sharper technique. Lauzon may not be able to compete at the high level of the division anymore, but still think he gets it here. Joe Lauzon by second-round submission.
Earl Montclair: Joe is on a rapid decline and it is sad to watch someone go through that. Chiesa is becoming more than decent, oddly enough and I think a lot of people are going to be sad. Michael Chiesa, Unanimous Decision.
Ben Kohn: Chiesa and Lauzon are both excellent grapplers but I feel Lauzon is so shopworn at this point, Chiesa has the edge by just being a fresher fighter. Lauzon may have a striking advantage, somehting he doesn’t often have so he should consider keeping it on the feet. Chiesa by UD.
Featherweight Bout: Charles Oliveira (18-4) vs. Nik Lentz (25-6-2)
Luke Irwin: Their first fight was very, very entertaining, one of the best for either men, and I think this is more of the same with Lentz getting his revenge. Lentz via UD.
Nolan Howell: Oliveira tends to lose to the best of the best. Swanson, Edgar, Cerrone, and Jim Miller are not losses to laugh at. Lentz has the smothering top game and competence on the feet to get it there. That top game could negate anything Oliveira has to offer, but he should have the edge anywhere but that wrestling game. Charles Oliveira by unanimous decision.
Earl Montclair: I was going to tentatively pick Lentz here but since C”DB”O missed weight by a country mile I am going to confidently pick Nik Lentz, Unanimous Decision.
Ben Kohn: Do Bronx missed weight by 4 pounds, not a good sign. However, unless he killed himself to make that weight, he still has the skills to beat Lentz handily. Striking, well duh. Grappling is more interesting as Lentz is an extremely good top control player so we shall see how he can handle Lentz on top. Still got Aloe Vera though. Oliveira by Submission round 2.
Lightweight Bout: Al Iaquinta (8-3-1) vs. Rodrigo Damm (12-7)
Luke Irwin: Damm is cannon fodder at this point, and it’s a good bounceback fight for Al. Iaquinta via UD.
Nolan Howell: Al Iaquinta by first-round TKO.
Earl Montclair: Damm is bad bad bad. Al Iaquinta, Unanimous Decision.
Ben Kohn: Iaquinta, not exactly the prospect we thought he was so far. He is going up against a good sub guy and he got D’arced from side control bottom in his last fight. I think he will just keep it on the feet and outwork Damm, eventually hurting and finishing him in the second half of the fight. Iaquinta by TKO round 2.
Flyweight Bout: John Moraga (14-3) vs. Justin Scoggins (9-1)
Luke Irwin: Moraga is certainly a top-five guy, one of the benchmarks of the flyweight division, but Scoggins is riding high, barely lost a SD to Dustin Ortiz, and I think he’s ready to take the next step. Scoggins via R2 TKO.
Nolan Howell: Scoggins is simply the more dynamic fighter. On the feet, Scoggins uses a karate style that will likely be too fast and slick for Moraga to do anything damaging. Moraga will want to get it on the mat, but it is no treat there as Scoggins has displayed great takedown defense and scrambling. Justin Scoggins by unanimous decision.
Earl Montclair: Although the two share a common opponent in Dustin Ortiz (who Moraga defeated and Scoggins lost to) I think Scoggins has this. Justin Scoggins, Unanimous Decision.
Ben Kohn: Moraga needs a win desperately but idk if he can win this one. He’s clearly not the top 5 fighter people thought he could be but is he even a top 10 guy? Oddly, most people thought Moraga lost to Ortiz while many felt Scoggins beat Ortiz. I think Moraga can beat Scoggins, I just don’t think he will. Scoggins by UD.
Middleweight Bout: Chris Camozzi (19-8) vs. Rafael Natal (17-6-1)
Luke Irwin: Curtain-jerkers unite! This is the most opening fight of all the opening fights. And in opening fashion, it’ll be awful and go the distance. Natal via UD.
Nolan Howell: Chris Camozzi by split decision.
Earl Montclair: Camozzi showed such remedial fight IQ I cannot pick him against Natal. Rafael Natal, dreadfully boring Unanimous Decision.
Ben Kohn: Battle of who’s going to be irrelevant from now on I see. Camozzi should be able to deal with Natal’s grappling in a survival aspect, and on the feet he’s technical but slow. I think Natal is slightly better at striking and grappling and he is a better athlete too. Natal by UD.
Bantamweight Bout: Chris Beal (9-0) vs. Tateki Matsuda (10-5)
Luke Irwin: I have a hard time picking a late-notice JMMA fighter making his UFC debut. Beal via R1 TKO.
Nolan Howell: Chris Beal by first-round TKO.
Earl Montclair: Chris Beal, Unanimous Decision.
Ben Kohn: Beal by UD.
Featherweight Bout: Chas Skelly (12-1) vs. Sean Soriano (8-1)
Luke Irwin: Ehhh…neither of these guys have anything that’ll be relevant, which makes it a perfect curtain-jerk. Still, going with Skelly here. Skelly via UD.
Nolan Howell: Chas Skelly by first-round submission.
Earl Montclair: Short Notice Skelly, Submission, Round 2.
Ben Kohn: Skelly by Submission round 2.
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