Welterweight Bout: Rory MacDonald (18-3) vs. Stephen Thompson (12-1)
Luke Irwin: I’m still not sold out Wonderboy. Not yet. As I said in my gambling article this week, KOing a beyond-beyond-shot Jake Ellenberger and a potentially on-his-way and clearly declining Johny Hendricks still isn’t convincing me that he’s ready for a title shot. Somehow, he’s the favorite here. The only fighter nearly as relentless, punishing, and pressing as Rory MacDonald was Matt Brown, and he got ground into taco meat in that fight. If this is Rory’s last dance in the UFC, I think he ends it on a high note. MacDonald via R4 TKO.
Welterweight Bout: Donald Cerrone (29-7) vs. Patrick Cote (23-9)
Luke: Another matchup where the line here is baffling me. We’re putting that much stock in Patrick Cote? In 2016? I think this is a near-certainty. Cerrone via R1 Submission.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Sean O’Connell (17-7) vs. Steve Bosse (11-2)
Luke: This is going to be very short and very violent. Maybe I’m still in Cup-winning afterglow, or my soft spot for the greatest sport on Earth, but I can’t pick against a hockey player. Bosse via R1 KO.
Lightweight Bout: Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-2) vs. Thibault Gouti (11-1)
Luke: If Gouti got tapped in 24 seconds by Teemu Packalen, the hell’s he think’s going to happen against OAM? Aubin-Mercier via R1 Submission.
Women’s Flyweight Bout: Joanne Calderwood (10-1) vs. Valerie Letourneau (8-4)
Luke: In the first-ever UFC Women’s Flyweight bout, Bad Mofo Jojo takes on a very tough customer in Valerie Letourneau. It isn’t in me to pick against JoJo, and I still think one of these days, she’s going to return to the murderous muay thai beast of a Scot that she used to be. Any day now. Calderwood via UD.
Lightweight Bout: Jason Saggo (11-2) vs. Leandro Silva (19-3-1)
Luke: I’m liking this transformation Saggo has undergone into a legit slugger in the lightweight division. I think Silva tries to exchange and pays the price for it. Saggo via R2 TKO.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Ion Cutelaba (11-1) vs. Misha Cirkunov (11-2)
Luke: Usually I seldom pick debuting fighters to win their debut. I think it’s too much of a culture shock of being in the UFC cage, and they need another fight to really get their head around it and acclimate where things aren’t so daunting, but Cutelaba is such a rolling death wagon, that I really don’t think it’ll matter in this case. Cutelaba via R1 TKO.
Middleweight Bout: Krzysztof Jotko (17-1) vs. Tamdam McCrory (14-3)
Luke: Is there a less prominent 17-1 UFC fighter thatn Krzysztof Jotko? Really? 17-1?? Well, I think he goes for the grind win, but he gets caught by the Barn Cat. McCrory via R2 Submission.
Bantamweight Bout: Chris Beal (10-2) vs. Joe Soto (15-5)
Luke: Like this fight a lot and both guys desperately could use and deserve a W here. Tough, tough luck on the choice of late-replacement for Beal, as Soto, with his back against the wall, is going to come with relentless pressure, and Beal won’t be able to get much off. Soto via UD.
Middleweight Bout: Elias Theodorou (11-1) vs. Sam Alvey (26-7)
Luke: Two of the true good guys in MMA, of which there aren’t many, and I’m bummed one has to lose, but it should be an awesome scrap. Alvey has shown time and time again in multiple promotions that he will smile and scrap with whomever and wherever, and Elias is forging his reputation as the witty meta brawler, so I expect a lot of fists and maybe a couple bro-hugs. Theodorou via SD.
Women’s Strawweight Bout: Jocelyn Jones-Lybarger (6-2) vs. Randa Markos (5-3)
Luke: Tough one to call here, really close, but I think Markos has more tools in her bag and her relentlessness will give her the each. Markos via SD.
Welterweight Bout: Colby Covington (8-1) vs. Jonathan Meunier (7-0)
Luke: Covington via UD.
Flyweight Bout: Ali Bagautinov (13-4) vs. Geane Herrera (9-1)
Luke: Bagautinov is in the customary time-out corner for bad boys and girls known as Fight Pass prelims, but make no mistake, he’s still one of the five most talented flyweights in the world. He’s going to walk here. Bagautinov via R3 TKO.
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