Rosenthal League
Tim Bernier: 65-28, .699
Benjamin Kohn: 98-48, .671
Tim Hickey: 105-52, .669
Josh Hall: 114-63, .644
Nolan Howell: 144-82, .637
Winslow League
Connor Dillon: 73-43, .629
Earl Montclair: 37-23, .617
Chris Groves: 30-19, .612
Lucas Bourdon: 27-20, .574
Luke Irwin: 138-111, .554
TC Engel: 35-29, .547
Last Event Winner: Earl Montclair (9-3)
Welterweight Bout: Demian Maia (18-4) vs. Jake Shields (28-6-1)
Luke Irwin: Both of these guys are at their ideal weight, but Maia seems reinvigorated and determined. Shields has been puke since coming over to the UFC, but I still think he has enough experience or savvy to avoid a submission, however, I think this will have another Maia-Erick Silva backpack 10-8 extravaganza. Maia via UD.
Josh Hall: I think Damien Maia is going to give Jake Shields the exact same treatment he gave Jon Fitch. 5 rounds of grappling dominance. Maia via unanimous decision.
TC Engel: I don’t like Jake Shields. I don’t want Jake Shields to taste victory ever again. I like Demian Maia. I want him to turn Jake Shields into a blood faucet. Thankfully, he has the capability to do it. Maia by UD.
Nolan Howell: While Shields has the potential to win ugly here, Maia just matches up well in every area except for wrestling. I am talking myself into the upset here, but it still isn’t enough to outweigh the overall advantage for Maia. Maia via second-round submission.
Ben Kohn: Read my breakdown for analysis but long story short, Maia by Sub rd 3.
Tim Hickey: Please, please, please MMA gods, let this be an absolutely beautiful display of a ground game, and not the shitiest kickboxing match of all time. As Josh mentioned above, Shields has a chance to win an ugly fight, but I have faith in Welterweight Maia. Maia via UD.
Earl Montclair: This is an even dumber fight than Maia v Kos would have been. I’m hoping this is a fun grapplefest instead of shitty kickboxing vs somehow shittier kickboxing. I hope Maia takes this decisively because nothing will derail his momentum quicker than a hideous performance against Shields. I’m going with what is best for the division here. Demian Maia, Submission, Round 4.
Welterweight Bout: Dong-Hyun Kim (17-2-1) vs. Erick Silva (15-3)
Luke Irwin: This is an awesome matchup. Stun Gun is exactly the type of challenge Silva needs. Kim is extremely big and even more than that, he fights very, very heavy. He’s a load when he gets on you. Silva won’t be able to overpower Kim, so he’ll have to outquick him, and based on what he showed against Maia, I don’t know that he can. His only shot is to try to take Kim out on the feet, but if Siyar couldn’t do that, I don’t think Silva can. Kim via UD.
Josh Hall: Kim’s path to victory is the same that Fitch used, but I don’t think he is on that same level grappling wise. I think Silva is able to hurt Kim early in the fight and pound him out before Kim can take control. Silva via 1st round KO.
TC Engel: I really should take Silva. On the Supercast I picked Kim, and I still think he has the capabilityto beat Silva, but his cardio is really quite shitty. Silva has a never ending gas tank. Kim takes the first round, and then gets finished in the second or third. Silva by TKO.
Nolan Howell: This is my definite upset pick. I am 100% behind Stun Gun here. His grappling should be enough to take Silva down and wear him out with grinding top control. Kim via UD.
Ben Kohn: Silva’s incredibly dynamic and wild but he has the athletic ability and skills to back up his unpredictable style. His grappling allowed him to more than hold his own against Jon Fitch before gassing out and Kim, while an excellent top control grappler, is no Jon Fitch. Kim’s improved striking should make this interesting for a few minutes but I think Silva will win get into a groove and end this one violently on the feet. Silva by KO rd 1.
Tim Hickey: This is a very good test to see if Silva can finally break through into the upper echelon of the division. Stun Gun provides a similar test to Silva that Jon Fitch did, but not nearly as talented. Stun Gun will want to make this ugly, use his wrestling and hold Silva down for 15 mins, but after seeing the impressive display Silva showed against Fitch a year ago, I am not convinced that Kim can do that. Silva via UD.
Earl Montclair: I don’t think Kim has the gas tank to win a dogfight with Erick Silva. I also don’t think he has the striking to finish him on the feet. Kim might get the first round, the second will be close, but he won’t see the final bell of the 3rd. Erick Silva, TKO, Round 3.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Matt Hamill (11-4) vs. Thiago Silva (15-3)
Luke Irwin: Yikes, this looks bad for Hamill and it probably will be, but if you look at Hamill’s losses, they’ve come to Gustafsson, Rampage (who couldn’t put him away), Franklin, a robbery to Bisping, and yes, a should-be loss to Jones. So the three fighters that have put Matt away have been Franklin, Bones, and Gus. That’s nothing to hang your head on. He looked extremely sluggish against Roget Hollett and that fight was over a month ago. I think Thiago puts a whooping on him, but Hamill endures. Silva via UD.
Josh Hall: I hate picking guys that miss weight, but the skill gap in this fight is too much to ignore. Silva via violent 1st round KO.
TC Engel: Matt Hamill is the only man to beat the two best UFC light heavyweights of all time. The only man to beat the two best UFC light heavyweights of all time is going to lose to Thiago Silva. Silva by KO.
Nolan Howell: Hamill should have retired and this bout might just put him there. Silva via first-round KO.
Ben Kohn: Silva looked excellent against Feijao in his last fight, showing that he has become more technical in both his offense and defense and that does not bode well for Hamill. Once upon a time, Hamill was a legit LHW but those days are long gone and he is not going to be much of a challenge. Despite Silva missing weight and having it affect his cardio, I doubt it will matter as he should finish this early. Silva by KO rd 1.
Tim Hickey: There was a time and a place where both of these fighters ranked in the top 10 in their division by numerous media outlets. This is unfortunately not the case, as both of them have a combined 2 wins over the last 2 years. To be fair, Silva has had victories overturned since he seems to be unable to keep off of banned substances. Hamill hasn’t fought in a year, and only once since 2011. I think Silva does a good job at keeping this on the feet, and picks Hamill apart. Silva via UD.
Earl Montclair: This is absurd. Thiago Silva, KO, Murderface, Throatslash, Round 1.
Light Heavyweight Bout: Fabio Maldonado (19-6) vs. Joey Beltran (14-8)
Luke Irwin: Dear god, this fight. I love both of these guys both personally and professionally, so this fight makes me cringe. They both love to throw heavy punches and don’t much care for defending them. This is going to be a sloppy, dangerous, fantastic, horrendous, beautiful brawl with both men hopefully going home a little richer for their trouble. Maldonado via SD.
Josh Hall: The only bad thing about this fight is one of these guys has to take a loss. I will take the superior boxing of Maldonado is what should be an absoute slugfest. Maldonado via 2nd round KO.
TC Engel: People talk about Maldonado like he’s actually competent. He hits pretty hard. Not as hard as Lavar Johnson, who remains the only guy to crack Beltran’s chin. That’s about it. Joey Beltran’s going to win this fight somehow, in a very Joey Beltran way. Joey Beltran by Joey Beltran. Joey Beltran.
Nolan Howell: Beltran is the more well-rounded fighter, but he is also prone to playing the brawling game and that will not fare well against Maldonado, whom I adore unabashedly. Maldonado via SD.
Ben Kohn: This fight has no divisional relevance but holy crap will this fight be an amazing brawl! Both these guys are basically terminators and can take ungodly amounts of punishment without stopping. I doubt either man can finish the other but I think Maldonado with his body shots will slow Beltran down and take control early to win the fight. Maldonado by UD.
Tim Hickey: Whelp, I expect this to be a slugfest. For all the bragging Rogan and Goldie do about Madonado’ s boxing, I have never been overly impressed with it as a whole. Beltran though has a chance to make Maldonado look like a boxing savant, as he is a come forward brawler who leaves himself open for counters. A do or die fight for both men in what should be a barnburner. Maldonado via decision.
Earl Montclair: Everyone’s favorite 205lb, unconscious brawlers are going to square off in a punchface/punchbody contest that would render most adults completely braindead and without control of their own bodily functions. This should be a hideous mess and so much fun. Fabio Maldonado, Unanimous Decision.
Welterweight Bout: Mike Pierce (17-5) vs. Rousimar Palhares (14-5)
Luke Irwin: This fight will put some hair on your back. This fight is between two men that are wider than they are tall and will run and grab each other like giant rams. We’re all going to feel like less of a man after watching this. Mike Pierce via R2 TKO.
Josh Hall: This is one of the worst matchups possible for the WW debut of “Toquinho”, as Pierce has the wrestling to keep the fight standing and the power in his hands to put the lights of Palhares out. Pierce via 2nd round KO.
TC Engel: I want Palhares to win more than anything, and as much as I love playing the contrarian card, I can’t pick him here. Pierce by KO.
Nolan Howell: While Palhares may be a different kind of monster at welterweight, he is running into a brick wall that has been tested by the best of the best in their primes. Pierce has the X-factor everywhere else. Pierce via second-round TKO.
Ben Kohn: Taking a look at Pierce’s losses, it’s hard to fathom how this guy hasn’t gotten more attention (than people remember how he fights). Pierce is a grinder with his only losses coming to Johny Hendricks (SD), Josh Koscheck (SD), and Jon Fitch (UD) with many having him winning the Hendricks and Kos fights. Pierce’s combination of excellent wrestling abilities and boxing/dirty boxing is a nightmare combination for Palhares who is unable to get much going against guys he can’t take down. Throw in the fact that Toquinho has lost every one of his UFC fights by KO (and two in a row) and this ends badly for him. Pierce by KO rd 2.
Tim Hickey: Man, they didn’ t give Paul Harris an easy fight for his debut at 170. Pierce is a savvy veteran with a big right hand and a scrappy overall game. Despite Pierce being a larger welterweight, I think Toquino will be the bigger man in the cage, and should be able to use his wrestling and excellent grappling to submit the unsubmittable man. Paul Harris via late sub.
Earl Montclair: Poor, poor Paul. He is going to get busted up something awful here. Mike Pierce, KO, Round 2.
Bantamweight Bout: Raphael Assuncao (20-4) vs. TJ Dillashaw (8-1)
Luke Irwin: You simply cannot bet against Alpha Male at this point, unless you’re Ben Kohn. Dillashaw via R1 KO.
Josh Hall: Bang-infused TJ Dillashaw is a bad man, and I expect him to unload on Assuncao early and often in this fight. Dillashaw via 1st round KO.
TC Engel: Dillishaw has a really douchey face. Assuncao by SD.
Nolan Howell: While Assuncao is impressive as of late, Dillashaw is the next big thing to come out of Alpha Male and he can do what he wants here. Dillashaw via UD.
Ben Kohn: Dillishaw has really impressed me since getting MDK’d by Dodson on the TUF 14 finale. He is really well rounded and can make some serious waves at BW. Assuncao is a more established top tenner but I think Dillishaw will slide into the top ten with a win over Assuncao. While I don’t think he will KO him (sorry Luke, only Koch has KO’d him so far), I do think he will outstrike him soundly en route to a comfortable decision win. Dillishaw by UD.
Tim Hickey: With the winner taking a good sized jump up the ladder at bantamweight, this maybe the fight I am most looking forward to on this card. Both fighters are riding 4 fight win streaks with a number of shared opponents, and this fight will be a back and forth affair. Team Alpha Male has looked fantastic since the arrival of Bang Ludwig as their striking coach, and apparently in the lead up to this fight, they all stood on one another’s shoulders and fought a bear (that may not be the actual story, as so much as how I picture it happened) and I expect the win streak to continue here. Dillashaw via late finish.
Earl Montclair: I expect another embarrassing striking performance from the Team Alpha Ludwig product. They are so bad, you guys! TJ Dillishaw, TKO, Round 1.
Welterweight Bout: Igor Araujo (23-6) vs. Ildemar Alcantara (19-5)
Luke Irwin: Alcantara is prepared for whatever Araujo has. He submitted a goddamned light heavyweight in the UFC and Araujo is walking in for the first time. Alcantara via R1 Submission.
Josh Hall: Despite having almost 30 fights Araujo has not fought good competition. I do not expect his submission game to be at all effective against Alcantara though, and I think he keeps the fight standing and beats up the UFC newcomer. Alcantara via 2nd round KO.
TC Engel: Araujo is the definition of a journeyman. I’d be stunned if he won. Alcantara by SUB.
Nolan Howell: This one is relatively simple. Araujo came from the worst season of TUF ever and he wasn’t good enough to hang there and Alcantara has been cementing his status as a prospect. Alcantara via first-round TKO.
Ben Kohn: Alcantra by KO rd 1.
Tim Hickey: Alcantra via TKO.
Earl Montclair: The Brazil undercard begins here along with my absurd, pointless reasoning for picking winners. I find it hard to root against a dude named Igor. I will not do it here. Igor Araujo, Submission, Round 2.
Welterweight Bout: David Mitchell (12-3) vs. Yan Cabral (10-0)
Luke Irwin: Cabral is 10-0 with ten submissions with his last submission over Sakuraba. I have no idea how this will play out. Will Mitchell be strong enough positionally to avoid that? Will he grind Cabral to a win? Will he be the one to fit Cabral with a submission? I’m going to give Cabral the benefit of the doubt and completely overestimate Saku. Cabral via R2 Submission.
Josh Hall: Cabral hasn’t fought in over 2 years and Mitchell is hanging onto his job by the thinnest of threads right now. Despite all 10 of his wins coming by submission, I think Mitchell can make it to the bell without getting tapped. Cabral via unanimous decision.
TC Engel: Nolan still hadn’t sprouted his first armpit hair the last time Cabral fought. Mitchell by UD.
Nolan Howell: Cabral has not fought the level of competition that Mitchell has, save for the ghost of Sakuraba. Mitchell seems like the more well-rounded fighter here and that’s enough for me. Mitchell via UD.
Ben Kohn: Cabral by UD.
Tim Hickey: Cabral last defeated Sakuraba two years ago. A long layoff plus his first UFC fight can’t be a good combo. Mitchell via UD.
Earl Montclair: So, Cabral hasn’t fought in over 2 years since he strangled the animated corpse of Kazushi Sakuraba. Then again, he is 10-0 with 10 submission victories and is fighting David Mitchell. I’ll go with Cabral via not being David Mitchell. Yan Cabral, Submission, Round 3.
Flyweight Bout: Chris Cariaso (14-5) vs. Iliarde Santos (27-8-1)
Luke Irwin: Before I was on the John Lineker Warwagon, I was on the Chris Cariaso Warwagon. I think he bounces back here, as I refuse to believe he’s fallen this far. Cariaso via UD.
Josh Hall: I feel pretty confident that Cariaso should be able to outpoint Santos here, but with judging as of late this could get interesting. Cariaso via unanimous decision.
TC Engel: I hate that they’re throwing Santos to the wolves, because he was actually fairly good against Uncle Creepy. Cariaso by KO.
Nolan Howell: I believe this is Cariaso finally being thrown a bone at flyweight. Cariaso via UD.
Ben Kohn: Cariaso by UD.
Tim Hickey: Cariaso only seems to lose to top 10 fighters. Seems easy enough. Cariaso via decision.
Earl Montclair: I suppose this is as good a place as any for some Brazilian/UFC judging shenanigans. Since it is bound to happen at least once per card, I say Iliarde Santos, Abysmal Split Decision.
Lightweight Bout: Alan Patrick (10-0) vs. Garett Whiteley (7-0)
Luke Irwin: Yikes. They’ve both been on nothing but indies, but Patrick’s indies are of a much higher quality than Whiteley’s indies. Patrick via UD.
Josh Hall: Whitley has run through terrible competition, but Patrick is used to going the distance and I think he can grind out the American here. Patrick via unanimous decision.
TC Engel: How the fuck is a guy named Alan Patrick from Brasil? Irish Brasilian by UD.
Nolan Howell: Both men have fought equally bad competition, but the Lytle teammate who has defeated a UFC veteran gets the edge. Whitely via first-round TKO.
Ben Kohn: Patrick by UD.
Tim Hickey: Prospect fight! Whiteley via decision.
Earl Montclair: Easy choice here: Don’t pick the dude nicknamed “Goodnight.” Alan Patrick, Unanimous Decision.
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