Light Heavyweight Bout: Anthony Johnson (20-5) vs. Ryan Bader (20-4)
Nolan: Unless Bader is able to wrestle Johnson down and take advantage of his still relatively questionable cardio, this could be a short night. Bader is a capable offensive fighter, but his defense won’t be enough against Rumble and few can hold up if one of those sneaks in. Anthony “Rumble” Johnson by first-round KO.
Luke: Cormier obviously laid out the blueprint of how to take apart Rumble. The problem is, Bader falls a little too in love with his boxing. Will he play it safe and smart? I don’t think so. Johnson via R2 KO.
Heavyweight Bout: Ben Rothwell (35-9) vs. Josh Barnett (34-7)
Nolan: While Barnett is susceptible to pissing fights away, Rothwell is a jack of all trades and master of none. That won’t be enough here as Barnett makes quick work on the mat. Josh Barnett by first-round submission.
Luke: This is such a weird fight. On paper, there should be no way that Rothwell gets out of the first round, but Rothwell tends to have this tendency to get involved in bizarre fights that don’t make sense. Heavyweight MMA is a bizarre place. Rothwell via SD.
Bantamweight Bout: Iuri Alcantara (33-6) vs. Jimmie Rivera (18-1)
Nolan: Alcantara is getting up there in years, but this is a test if Rivera is ready for elite bantamweights as Alcantara is the perfect threshold fighter. While slipping, Alcantara is still good enough to sneak this one out. Yuri Alcantara by unanimous decision.
Luke: This may be the last chance for Alcantara to go on a run while also seeing if Rivera is ready to go to the next level. In this case, I’m taking the cagey vet to use his giant size advantage and reach to keep the youngster at bay and earn a decision. Alcantara via UD.
Welterweight Bout: Bryan Barberena (10-3) vs. Sage Northcutt (7-0)
Nolan: Northcutt taking on enhancement talent in a showcase fight on Fox is good booking that he takes advantage of. Sage Northcutt by first-round TKO.
Luke: Sage’s day of reckoning is coming, but it won’t be this day. Northcutt via R1 Submission.
Welterweight Bout: Jake Ellenberger (30-10) vs. Tarec Saffiedine (15-4)
Nolan: Ellenberger should probably hang them up at this point. Saffiedine could very well catch him, but he uses his footwork to stay away from the mat and picks Ellenberger off coming in all night. Given Ellenberger’s chin lately, going to bet he can only take so many. Tarec Saffiedine by second-round TKO.
Luke: This is not going to be pretty. Despite Tarec only having three fights since August of 2012, he can still be a terrifying striker and Ellenberger is long past his expiration date. Saffiedine is going to knock off the rust on Jake Ellenberger’s jaw and it’s going to be ugly. Saffiedine via R1 TKO.
Lightweight Bout: Carlos Diego Ferreira (11-2) vs. Olivier Aubin-Mercier (7-1)
Nolan: Simply going on record here and Ferreira is the more tested fighter. Carlos Diego Ferreira by unanimous decision.
Luke: Ferreira came into the UFC a house of fire but stalled when he faced Beneil Dariush and was the unfortunate recipient of Dustin Poirier’s career resurgence at lightweight. His momentum is clearly stalled and I think Aubin-Mercier’s quiet winning streak he’s put together keeps rolling on. Aubin-Mercier via UD.
Middleweight Bout: Kevin Casey (9-3) vs. Rafael Natal (20-6-1)
Nolan: Fully expect Natal to play it safe and ugly here and Casey isn’t dangerous enough to take advantage of the major lapses in fight IQ Natal has. Rafael Natal by unanimous decision.
Luke: Is Natal on the undercard? Yes? Ok, then. Natal via UD.
Flyweight Bout: Dustin Ortiz (15-4) vs. Wilson Reis (19-6)
Nolan: Ortiz knows how to play the game well and is able to get decisions out of it. If he can get past the dangerous grappling of Reis in the first round or round and a half, think he cruised here. Dustin Ortiz by unanimous decision.
Luke: Goddamned shame that this isn’t on the Fox card but Sage Northcutt and his shitty hair are. Both of these guys only lose to the very tip-top of the division, or in Reis’s case, the bantamweight division, so this should be a fun, fast, interesting matchup. Ortiz just has a little more juice in his last couple fights. Ortiz via SD.
Welterweight Bout: Alexander Yakovlev (22-6-1) vs. George Sullivan (17-4)
Nolan: If the shark thank Yakovlev has swam through up until this fight hasn’t upped his game enough to win here, he probably is on his way out. Alexander Yakovlev by split decision.
Luke: Darkhorse FOTN candidate right here. I almost accidentally put Sullivan’s name in as “George O’Sullivan”. Just felt right. Regardless, if Yakovlev can stand and bang and beat Paul Daley, I doubt Sullivan has anything for him. Yakovlev via UD.
Featherweight Bout: Alex Caceres (10-8) vs. Masio Fullen (10-5)
Nolan: Bruce Leeroy with an opponent to help him get the glow back. Alex Caceres by first-round submission.
Luke: Win, lose, or draw, you can never say that Caceres isn’t in a fun fight. Caceres via R1 Submission.
Featherweight Bout: Damon Jackson (9-1) vs. Levan Makashvili (7-2)
Nolan: Damon Jackson by second-round submission.
Luke: Makashvili via UD.
Welterweight Bout: Matt Dwyer (8-3) vs. Randy Brown (6-0)
Nolan: Matt Dwyer by first-round TKO.
Luke: I desperately want to pick Dwyer in protest of Dana White’s extremely unnecessary “Hittin the road!” reality series, and Dwyer is a live dog…screw it, doing it. Dwyer via UD.
Lightweight Bout: Felipe Olivieri (14-4) vs. Tony Martin (9-3)
Nolan: Tony Martin by unanimous decision.
Luke: Olivieri via R3 Submission.
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