Rosenthal League
Marta Gallo: 11-2, .846
Benjamin Kohn: 61-21, .744
Tim Bernier: 58-23, .716
Nolan Howell: 101-41, .711
Tim Hickey: 81-34, .704
Daniel Galvan: 19-8, .704
Winslow League
Josh Hall: 63-30, .677
Connor Dillon: 50-29, .633
Chris Groves: 30-19, .612
Luke Irwin: 93-69, .574
Lucas Bourdon: 13-10, .565
TC Engel: 20-20, .500
UFC Flyweight Championship: Demetrious Johnson (c) (17-2-1) vs. John Moraga (13-1)
Luke Irwin: To me, I look at Moraga as basically Dodson-lite, and not because Dodson holds a win over him, but because I feel that Dodson is just a little bit better than Moraga in most respects. The only thing I’ll give the edge to Moraga is submssion aggressiveness, but Johnson is too slick to get in a bad position there. I think this plays out like the Dodson fight, only Johnson doesn’t get in a hole early. Johnson via UD.
Josh Hall: Moraga has gone from Facebook prelims straight to the main event but he only loss came against his fastest opponent (John Dodson), and Johnson should be able to use his speed and wrestling to win a decision here. Johnson via unanimous decision.
Connor Dillon: As a local announcer is used to say, “get ready to watch greased lightning personified!” This’ll be an interesting fight for the Flyweight Championship. Do we take “Mighty Mouse” and his excellent speed with Matt Hume in his corner, or Moraga, the devastating submission grappler with power in his hands training out of the MMA Lab, like Lightweight champ Bendo? If I was going to look at this, I’d say to win it “Mighty Mouse needs to work the Southpaw position, use kicks to the legs and body to throw off Moraga, and maybe throw some dirty boxing from a clinch into a takedown. Moraga needs to pressure, pressure, pressure! If he can successfully do this, he may catch the “Mighty Mouse” in a trap, submitting him with a clever Guillotine or knocking him out with his left hook. Personally, I’m gonna say Johnson is smart enough to take this, and with a solid game plan and maybe a couple scary moments, “Mighty Mouse” will come through the fires the champ. Johnson via Decision.
Nolan Howell: Johnson via UD.
Welterweight Bout: Jake Ellenberger (29-6) vs. Rory MacDonald (14-1)
Luke Irwin: THERE WAS A FIREFIIIIIIGHHHTTT! God, I cannot WAIT for this fight. These two dudes have been jawing back-and-forth for months now and these are both tough, violent welterweights. Here’s Rory’s problem: Jake is not BJ Penn, Jake is game. Jake isn’t going to take Rory’s Ali-shuffling like Penn did. Jake turned out Jake Shields’s lights, something even Dan fucking Henderson couldn’t do. If Rory knows that Ellenberger is a live, nasty, opponently and approaches him as such, we’re looking at a FOTY candidate. I’m giving Rory the benefit of the doubt and he approaches Ellenberger like he did Condit, Diaz, and Pyle. MacDonald via R3 TKO.
Josh Hall: I both love and hate this fight. It is guaranteed violence in the cage, but is really tough to call. Ellenberger’s best chance is early on in the fight. If he can’t crack MacDonald in the first round and a half, I expect the Canadian will finish strong. I think “The Juggernaut” finds a home for the big right hand and finishes with ground and pound. Ellenberger via TKO.
Connor Dillon: Woohoo, the People’s Main event! I either see Rory Mac using a distance and kicking game to beat Ellenberger by decision, or Ellenberger by MURDERDEATHKILL. Personally, I know what I’d prefer to watch on national television. Ellenberger via KO.
Nolan Howell: MacDonald via UD.
Welterweight Bout: Bobby Voelker (24-9) vs. Robbie Lawler (20-9)
Luke Irwin: Here’s where I go with the upset, as Lawler either looks very good or pretty rough in the cage, and seemingly they alternate each time around. Voelker is surprisingly the more experienced fighter who tends to be strong against strikers. Yes, he got beat by Cote in his last fight, but I’m chalking that up to Octagon jitters and thinks he gets by this time. Voelker via SD.
Josh Hall: Voelker has shown the ability to take tremendous amounts of punishment in the cage, but I’m afraid he is not going to be able to withstand the onslaught of a suddenly rejuvenated WW Robbie Lawler. Lawler via KO.
Connor Dillon: Lawler made a significant impact in his return to Welterweight, KO’ing perennial top contender, Josh Koscheck. If the weight cut isn’t too bad for him this time around, I expect a similar fight against Voelker. Lawler via KO or Decision.
Nolan Howell: Lawler via R1 TKO.
Women’s Bantamweight Bout: Jessica Andrade (9-2) vs. Liz Carmouche (8-3)
Luke Irwin: The original fight featuring Carmouche and Tate would have been a barnburner, but this is a nice bounceback fight for Liz. Andrade has done well for herself in the Brazilian indies, but Liz has literally fought the best of the best and Andrade isn’t going to bring anything Carmouche hasn’t seen. Ground and pound. Carmouche R2 TKO.
Josh Hall: This is a massive step up for the 21 year old Andrade, and I don’t think she has ever faced a fighter near as tough in the cage as Carmouche. I think this will be too much too fast for Andrade, and Carmouche pounds her out on the ground within the first 2 rounds. Carmouche via TKO.
Connor Dillon: Coming off her thrilling loss to *ahem* Ronda Rousey, Carmouche is the first woman to fight twice in the UFC. Her opponent, Jessica Andrade, is coming from a regional world tour. If I was just gonna spit ball here, I’d say Carmouche because she’s been in the cage with the best, but don’t be too surprised if Andrade comes out swinging and takes her down. Carmouche via Decision.
Nolan Howell: Carmouche via R2 TKO.
Lightweight Bout: Jorge Masvidal (24-7) vs. Michael Chiesa (9-0)
Luke Irwin: Masvidal called Chiesa a watered-down Royce Gracie, which is probably the weirdest goddamned thing anybody has ever said about Michael Chiesa, and I’m sure they’ve said a few. Chiesa hasn’t faced a striker anywhere near Masvidal and I think Jorge evades the ground game well enough to plant Chiesa with some good shots. Masvidal via R2 KO.
Josh Hall: I really like Chiesa and think he is going to be a solid UFC LW, but Masvidal has solid takedown defense, more experience and the better standup game. This is a bad matchup for Chiesa and I expect Masvidal to keep the fight on the outside and box his way to a victory. Masvidal via unanimous decision.
Connor Dillon: Okay, Masvidal’s comments about Chiesa’s beard were ridiculous and crossed the line. He should be fined and punished for such an injurious comment. That said, I don’t think Chiesa is gonna take this fight, and if he does I’ll sing in the streets. Masvidal has fought and beaten much higher ranked fighters than Chiesa and has many more fights. Masvidal via TKO Round 2.
Nolan Howell: Masvidal via R1 TKO.
Lightweight Bout: Danny Castillo (15-5) vs. Tim Means (18-4-1)
Luke Irwin: Normally, I’d say Castillo would just wrestle a decision out of Means, but with Alpha Male’s new committment to striking with Duane Ludwig at the helm, I think Castillo will try his hands. Unlike his Alpha Male breatheren, I don’t feel he has the pop that some of his teammates have and Means will get the better of him. Means via R1 KO.
Josh Hall: Coming off his first loss in 12 fights, Means has a tough turnaround against Castillo. I expect the wrestling game of Castillo to be able to neutralize the explosive standup of Means and he will be able to grind his way to a close decision. Castillo via unanimous decision.
Connor Dillon: This fight is pretty equal in my eyes. Castillo and Means have both lost to top names, and it depends on who comes in better. With Alpha Male’s new striking coach, Duane “Bang”, in their corner, I think Castillo might come into this one well prepared. Castillo via Decision.
Nolan Howell: Castillo via UD.
Lightweight Bout: Mac Danzig (21-10-1) vs. Melvin Guillard (30-12-2)
Luke Irwin: While Danzig might be limited physically by what he can do in the cage, he seldom fights dumb, which is how he’s been able to stick so long. Guillard on the other hand…well..doesn’t. Melvin wants so badly to barnstorm his opponent right out of the gates, and that works against less-experienced or overeager fighters, but against experienced fighters like Miller, Cerrone, Lauzon, and Varner, they weather the early onslaught and put him in a bad position. Danzig via R2 Submssion.
Josh Hall: Mac Danzig hasn’t submitted anyone in a while, despite having 10 wins that way. Guillard is the perfect opponent to end the drought against. There is always the possibility of Guillard landing bombs to finish the fight at any point, but he has not looked good as of late losing 4 out of his last 5. Danzig via submission.
Connor Dillon: Goodbye cruel world! (Last written note by Mac Danzig). Guillard via KO.
Nolan Howell: Danzig via R1 Submission.
Lightweight Bout: Daron Cruickshank (12-3) vs. Yves Edwards (42-19-1)
Luke Irwin: Both of these guys can throw a strike but are succeptible to taking one. I think they’ll both get in some great shots, it’ll be a technical striking battle because Yves tends to fight his opponent’s fights. He grapples with grapplers and strikes with strikers. Fun bout, will go the distance. Cruickshank via SD.
Josh Hall: At 36 years old with 62 pro fights under his belt, Yves Edwards is still a solid LW that is still very dangerous on the feet or the ground. Cruikshank brings solid kickboxing as well, and this fight is fairly likely to stay a standup affair. I’ll take the old vet to win a tough decision on the feet. Edwards via unanimous decision.
Connor Dillon: Damn man, this is probably the hardest fight for me to call personally. I love Yves Edwards and his personality, he’s got one of the funniest twitter accounts of any MMA fighters I follow. But will he be able to withstand the power and speed of this young lion Daron Cruickshank? That’s a question that only tomorrow’s night can answer. But if I had to lean one way or another, I think experience only goes so far in this fight. Daron Cruickshank via KO Round 3.
Nolan Howell: Cruickshank via R2 KO.
Middleweight Bout: Ed Herman (20-9) vs. Trevor Smith (10-3)
Luke Irwin: I assume this is Herman’s thank you for taking the fight against Jacare, since Smith is 1-1 career at middleweight. Herman might not be the most talented middleweight in history, but he sure as hell can catch Trevor Smith with something good. Herman via R1 Submission.
Josh Hall: Trevor Smith has had 3 big step ups in competition in his career and was finished in each one. Herman desperately wants to get past the terrible performance against Jacare in his trip to Strikeforce, and I expect him to look aggressively for the finish here. Herman via submission.
Connor Dillon: Do we really need to question this one? Ed Herman via Submission.
Nolan Howell: Herman via R1 Submission.
Women’s Bantamweight Bout: Germaine de Randamie (3-2) vs. Julie Kedzie (16-11)
Luke Irwin: de Randame is one of the most decorated female Kickboxers and Muay Thai practicioners of all-time. She was 37-0 and will have a substantial size difference over Kedzie. Julie Kedzie will have to use all of her experience and cunning to try and take the win here. She doesn’t have a submission win in the last five years, which is troubling. She either needs to catch GDR in a submission (like Vanessa Porto), or try and keep her grounded (like Julia Budd). Budd, however, is much bigger and stronger than Kedzie. Julie can dish out some punishment with strikes in a big way, but this isn’t Miesha Tate, this is a 5’11” world-class striker who will probably be about twenty pounds heavier than Kedzie on fight night. Kedzie is fearless and will gamely take it to GDR, but her submission game and size are too lacking to control her. de Randamie via R2 TKO.
Josh Hall: I expet experience to be the big difference in this fight. De Randamie has a tough task in front of her making her Octagon debut with only 5 pro fights on her record compared to Kedzie’s 27 and cutting down to BW. Kedzie is coming off back to back losses, but her last fight against Miesha Tate was one of the best of 2012. Kedzie via unanimous decision.
Connor Dillon: This’ll be a good fight. Depending on what kind of head she comes in on, I think Kedzie can beat the whrilwind of malevolent violence that is de Randamie. She’s training with Greg Jackson, so I figured that’ll be the biggest mark heading into this fight. Julie Kedzie via Decision.
Nolan Howell: Kedzie via UD.
Lightweight Bout: Aaron Riley (30-13-1) vs. Justin Salas (10-4)
Luke Irwin: BAH GOD! THAT’S AARON RILEY’S MUSIC! After almost two years away from MMA, Riley is healed and back in the UFC. Between Riley’s two years away from the cage and Salas receiving a pretty substantial beating from Tim Means in his last bout, I don’t expect this fight to be…well…what’s the word?…good. Good, I don’t expect this fight to be good. Salas via UD.
Josh Hall: While Justin Salas tries to redeem himself after the brutal assault he suffered in his last fight, Aaron Riley returns for the first time since 2011 when he suffered his second career broken jaw. If Riley can come out with no cage rust I think he is the better fighter but a long layoff and having jaw problems is a bad combination. Salas via decision.
Connor Dillon: I don’t really remember either of these guys, but Nolan Howell (or was it Holan Nowell?) said he put money on Riley. Aaron Riley via Decision.
Nolan Howell: Riley via UD.
Bantamweight Bout: John Albert (7-4) vs. Yaotzin Meza (19-8)
Luke Irwin: Albert has had a hell of a rocky road in the UFC. He defeated Dustin Pague in his UFC debut, then was handed Ivan Menjivar, Erik Perez, and Scott Jorgensen, all ranked by us, and all tougher than the last for some reason. The fact that they kept him after three straight losses mean they still have hope for the guy. Meza was also thrown to the wolves in his UFC debut, being fed to Chad Mendes on short notice. This is a chance for both fighters to regroup, take a deep breath, and fight an opponent that’s more on their level. Close, close bout. Albert via SD.
Josh Hall: Albert has been thrown to the wolves his last 3 fights (Menjivar, Perez, Jorgenson) and been finished in all 3, while Meza was the unfortunate victim of the new and Bang-improved Chad Mendes. The loser of this fight likely gets cut, and I think Albert gets the fight to the ground and secures a tap. Albert via submission.
Connor Dillon: I’m coming right out and saying it: Meza is gonna beat Albert. He trains out of The MMA Lab with notables Benson Henderson and John Moraga, and got thrown to the wolves in his last fight. Albert is on a 3-Fight losing streak to some of Bantamweight’s finest, but that hasn’t made me feel any better about him. Yaotzin Meza via Submission.
Nolan Howell: Albert via R1 TKO.
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