UFC Vegas 50: Mazo vs Maverick – Fight Card, UFC Odds and Best Bets

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Ankalaev takes places this Saturday, March 12, 2022 live from the Apex Arena in Las Vegas. Part of the prelims fight we have a women’s flyweight fight between Sabina “Colombian Queen” Mazo and Miranda “Fear The” Maverick. It’s worth noting that the UFC Apex features a 25-foot diameter Octagon version as opposed to the standard 30-foot diameter Octagon, which should make the fight between Mazo vs Maverick a little more interesting. Below, we’ll break down the best bets for the UFC fights tonight, including the Mazo vs Maverick women’s flyweight bout.

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Ankalaev | How to Watch the UFC Fights This Weekend

  • 🥊 UFC Fight Night: 203
  • 📅 Date: Saturday, March 12, 2022
  • 🕙 When: 7:00pm ET
  • 📺 TV Channel: ESPN+
  • 🏟 Where: Apex Arena | Las Vegas, Nevada
  • 🏆 UFC Main Event: Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev
  • 📊 UFC Stats: Mazo 9-3-0 | Maverick 9-4-0
  • 🎲 UFC Odds: Mazo (+260) | Maverick (-310)

UFC Odds — Mazo vs Maverick Odds

BetOnline opened the line on Miranda Maverick at -150, where it was immediately bet down to -265 where it has continued to drop into fight week to -310, with the comeback on the “Colombian Queen” at +260. The full breakdown of odds from BetOnline can be seen below:

Moneyline Odds Play
Miranda Maverick -310 BetOnline logo
Sabino Mazo +260 BetOnline logo

 

Fight Odds on Total Rounds Mazo vs Maverick

For the total rounds the over/under is set at 2.5 with the over at -260. The top sportsbooks think this fight is going to decision, check out the odds below.

Total Rounds Odds Play
Over 2.5 -260 BetOnline logo
Under 2.5 +200 BetOnline logo

 

UFC Fight Night: Santos vs Ankalaev Fight Card

Here is the full UFC Fight Night card for Santos vs Ankalaev on Saturday night.

Main Card: 7pm EST

  • Thiago Santos vs Magomed Ankalaev (light heavyweight)
  • Marlon Moraes vs Song Yadong (bantamweight)
  • Sodiq Yusuff vs Alex Caceres (featherweight)
  • Khalil Rountree Jr vs Karl Roberson (light heavyweight)
  • Drew Dober vs Terrance McKenney (lightweight)
  • Alex Pereira vs Bruno Silva (middleweight)

Prelims: 4pm EST

  • Matthew Semelsberger vs AJ Fletcher (welterweight)
  • JJ Aldrich vs Gillian Robertson (women’s flyweight)
  • Trevin Jones vs Javid Basharat (bantamweight)
  • Damon Jackson vs Kamuela Kirk (featherweight)
  • Sabina Mazo vs Miranda Maverick (women’s flyweight)
  • Dalcha Lungiambula vs Cody Brundage (middleweight)
  • Kris Moutinho vs Guido Canetti (bantamweight)
  • Tafon Nchukwi vs Azamat Murzakanov (light heavyweight)

UFC Stats — Mazo vs Maverick

In order to properly breakdown this fight, we will have to take a deeper dive into this matchup.

Sabina Mazo — UFC Bio, Record, and Stats

  • Rank: N/A
  • Age: 24
  • Country: Colombia
  • Height: 5’7 (170 cm)
  • Reach: 70” (178 cm)
  • Weight 125 lbs (56.7 kgs)
  • Stance: Orthodox

Sabina Mazo — UFC Stats

  • Overall Record: 9-3
  • Fights Won by KO/TKO: 2 (22% of wins)
  • Fights Won by Submission: 1 (11% of wins)
  • Fights Won by Decision: 6 (66% of wins)
  • Fights Lost by KO/TKO: 0
  • Fights Lost by Submission: 1 (33% of losses)
  • Fights Lost by Decision: 2 (66% of losses)

Miranda Maverick — UFC Bio, Record, and Stats

  • Rank: N/A
  • Age: 24
  • Country: United States
  • Height: 5’3 (1161 cm)
  • Reach: 65.5” (166 cm)
  • Weight 125 lbs (56.7 kgs)
  • Stance: Southpaw

Miranda Maverick — UFC Stats

  • Overall Record: 9-4-0
  • Fights Won by KO/TKO: 1 (11% of wins)
  • Fights Won by Submission: 5 (56% of wins)
  • Fights Won by Decision: 3 (33% of wins)
  • Fights Lost by KO/TKO: 0
  • Fights Lost by Submission: 0
  • Fights Lost by Decision: 4 (100% of losses)

UFC Fight Night: Miranda Maverick vs Sabina Mazo Preview

The prelims contain an intriguing match-up of young prospects still looking to make their mark on the women’s flyweight division. Sabina “Colombian Queen” Mazo will face of against Miranda “Fear The” Maverick. Both women are coming off of back to back losses and are looking to use each other to get back into the win column. The loser could potentially looking for a new job.

Will Sabina Mazo avoid 3 losses in a row?

Sabina Mazo is a decorated boxer coming out of Columbia that  also uses a pretty fast high kick. She actually landed at least 5 head kicks against Justin Kish, because they are very fast kicks and no real set up to them, but also not a lot of power. Mazo is a young fighter at 24 years old, but has improved after each appearance. With that being said, I think Mazo has lost her last 9-10 rounds and perhaps her last 4 fights. Let me explain.

When Sabina Mazo fought JJ Aldrich it was a close fight and Mazo won round 3 to win a split decision. It could have gone either way, with the media scores slightly favoring Aldrich. In her fight against Justin Kish, Kish was winning rounds 1 and 2 by just sheer volume and leg kicks. Mazo was down 2 rounds going into the third round. In the third round, she started landing her head kicks that got Kish wobbled and dropped and she followed her to the ground for the come from behind submission win. Mazo then fought Alexis Davis where she lost all three rounds and spent most of the fight on her back eventually losing a decision. Her last fight was against Mariya Agapova (who just lost last week to Moroz) and Agapova looked great on the feet again winning rounds 1 and 2. Round 3 Agapova landed a huge right hook that dropped Mazo and Agapova followed with the submission win. Sabina Mazo hasn’t looked too impressive in her most recent fights. It will be interesting to see if she can change that.

Can Miranda Maverick live up to her hype?

Miranda Maverick is a well round Mixed Martial Artist, with decent hands, hard leg kicks and great timing on her takedowns. She is normally able to control her opponents on the ground. Miranda has had flashes where she has looked dominant. In her UFC debut against Liana JoJua she out landed her opponent opening a cut in the process winning by doctor stoppage after 1 round. Maverick was then able to control Giallian Robertson with almost 5 minutes of control time on her way to a decision win. Miranda then fought fellow prospect in Maycee Barber. In a close fight that many though Maverick won and where Maverick out landed Barber (47-36), Maverick lost by split decision. In her most recent fight Maverick was out powered and out grappled where she lost a unanimous decision to Erin Blanchfield.

UFC Betting Trends  — Mazo vs Maverick

Let’s take a look at how these 2 fighters have looked in their previous fights.

Sabina Mazo

  • Mazo has out struck her opponents in 5 of her last 6 UFC fights
  • Mazo has gone to decision in 6 of her last 8 fights

Miranda Maverick

  • Maverick has never been finished in her 13 professional fights
  • Maverick was taken down 7 times in her previous fight
  • Maverick has out landed her opponents in 3 of her last 4 UFC fights

Free UFC Picks — UFC Best Bets For Maverick vs Mazo

Let’s break down the best bets for the UFC fights tonight.

Physically Mazo will have a 4” height and a 5” reach advantage. Mazo is the busier fighter landing 6.45 strikes per minute, but also absorbing 4.50 per minutes. Maverick is less busier only landing 3.76 per minute, but also only absorbing 2.78 per minute. The main difference between the two is that Mazo will most likely try to keep the fight standing only averaging 0.7 takedowns per 15min, whereas Maverick is a little higher at 1.20. Maverick’s takedown accuracy and Mazo’s takedown defense both stand at 66%.

What I’m noticing from Mazo is that her striking speed is fast, but doesn’t have much power behind anything. There have been comparisons to the Diaz brothers in that she is a high volume striker. I also think that Mazo doesn’t move her head off the center line and keeps it up in the air. She’s eaten some big shots to Kish and Davis because of it and they aren’t really strikers. Agapova landed some real big strikes in her fight as well. Lastly, there is a big weakness with the takedown defense from her opponents catching her kicks. Kish caught a kick at the end of round 1 and got her down. In rounds 2 and 3 Kish, for some reason, caught 4 or 5 kicks and then would try to grab a clinch or spinning elbow, or jumping high kick from those. Whereas when Alexis Davis caught 3 kicks, she simply walked forward to get the takedown. On the ground, she’s apparently a Brazilian Jui Jitsu Brown belt, but I haven’t seen much evidence of it.

While Maverick is at a height and reach disadvantage, I think her stockier build and power will allow Maverick to bully Mazo both in the clinch and on the ground. I think the threat of Maverick catching Mazo’s kicks will limit the number of kicks Mazo’s tries, but if she does kick, I think Maverick easily gets the takedown. On the ground, I think Maverick could find the finish late.

Here’s how I have the fight broken down:

  • Mazo by TKO/KO: 10% (+900 or better)
  • Mazo by Sub: 5% (+1900 or better)
  • Mazo by Dec: 15% (+567 or better
  • Maverick by TKO/KO: 15% (+567 or better)
  • Maverick by Submission: 20% (+400 or better)
  • Maverick by Decision: 35% (+186)

Which translates to:

  • Mazo +233 or better
  • Maverick -233 or better
  • Fight goes to dec: +100 or better
  • Fight doesn’t go dec: +100 or better

The pick is Maverick to win, but I think the odds have move enough that the value is gone on Maverick and the odds are not high enough on Mazo either. I do think there is good value on Maverick By TKO/Submission at +250, or if you want to go crazy Maverick by TKO at +750.

UFC Best Bets:

  • Maverick ITD moneyline (Scorecards = no action) -325

It’s a little bit juiced, but I think Maverick has a good chance at winning by TKO/Submission, whereas with Mazo, if she wins, it’s most likely by decision. Therefore, I’ll pay a little bit more juice for the ITD moneyline. This line can be found at BetOnline.