The Thunder and the Mavericks face off in the first Round, their third postseason meeting in five years. Can the veteran Mavericks bring enough to the table to beat the hungry Thunder?
The first time Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook faced Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks in the playoffs, it was 2011 and the Thunder had tasted their first playoff successes. The heirs apparent to the great teams of the West, the young core gathered in Oklahoma City – Durant, Westbrook, James Harden, Serge Ibaka – met the Mavericks in the Western Conference Finals. The Thunder’s athleticism and youth were supposed to blow the old-man Mavs off the court. Dallas won in five on their way to the title.
The next season the Thunder got their revenge, taking the mantle of the West and sweeping the defending champs. Dirk, Kobe, Duncan – the young Oklahoma City stars roared past them all. They lost in the Finals, but they had arrived, and would fill their trophy rooms with Larry O-Brian trophies. The future was theirs. Dallas, with an aging cast of characters, was a creature of the past.
And yet, four years later, both teams are largely where they were then. The Thunder, still full of talent, have yet to win a title or even return to the Finals. The Mavericks have defied both time and conventional team-building principles to stay afloat, continually re-tooling around the ageless German sharpshooter. The rubber match begins Saturday night, perhaps one final series for these stars. One team is going to lose, and will have to face hard questions about the future. One will advance, and delay the hard look in the mirror for a few more weeks.
For Dallas, the man to watch is the same one we’ve been watching for years – Dirk Nowitzki combines towering length with delicate touch, unlike any in NBA history. His surrounding cast, however, are more peculiar than ever. A quartet of aged, veteran point guards rotates in the backcourt, while the frontcourt features one legitimate running mate – sharpshooter Wesley Matthews – and a collection of has-beens (David Lee, Zaza Pachulia) and not-yets (Salah Mejri and Dwight Powell). Since losing forward Chandler Parsons to injury, Dallas has reimagined itself as a slow-paced five-out collection of misfit parts doing just enough to win games – and it worked, as Dallas won seven of nine to make the postseason.
On the other side, the Thunder’s dance is new and exactly the same. Isolation heavy offense leveraging their two stars is how OKC have conducted themselves for years, under both Scott Brooks and current coach Billy Donovan. But when Durant missed the majority of last season with foot injuries, a change happened with this team. Kevin Durant may be the most talented player, but Russell Westbrook is the leader. Whether he continues ripping out triple-doubles during the postseason remains to be seen, but what can be decided now is that Westbrook will lay everything on the line in pushing his team towards the finish line. If players like Dion Waiters, Enes Kanter, and Randy Foye can provide merely competent defense, the Thunder are overwhelming favorites to advance.
Game One is in Oklahoma City, and the Mavericks will limp in, adding David Lee (foot) to an extensive injury report. At home and filled with intensity, the advantage should go to the Thunder. But Dirk Nowitzki only has a finite number of playoff series left, and his veteran support staff know the same. If they want to taste postseason success, it has to happen now, this season, against this Thunder team. Looking at athleticism, talent, team success – this is Oklahoma City’s series to lose. But if things begin to go unexpectedly for the Thunder – if they face another fourth quarter collapse, or Westbrook isn’t getting foul calls when he caroms to the hoop – they may find themselves facing emotional questions they aren’t ready to answer. If Dallas can push the right buttons, the Thunder might begin to crumble.
That being said, Dallas has struggled mightily against the best teams in the West, including an 0-4 record against the Thunder this year. There isn’t enough there for me to pick anyone else for Game One. I have Thunder 106, Mavericks 95.
Taking the longer view? I think Dallas puts a wrench in things once in Dallas, and provides a few scares, but ultimately Dirk’s shooting and coach Rick Carlisle’s craftiness can only provide so much for a team so clearly lacking in talent. Thunder in 5
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