Unheralded Star

Hey there everyone. Here to bother you today is Marc Normandin from Beyond the Boxscore, Sox on Deck, and Baseball Digest Daily. I’ve decided today not to write about the Red Sox themselves, but instead use this series against the Philadelphia Phillies to enlighten some of you about a player you may not know much about.
Bobby Abreu is well known to many baseball fans, but I’m pretty sure not everyone is aware of just how amazing a player he has been in his career. He is on pace to have his best season to date this year, which would give him an even better peak stretch. Let’s take a look at some advanced metrics for evaluating players on his Davenport Translated, or DT Card:
Career WARP3: 63.9
Peak WARP: 41.8
JAWS: 52.85
BRAR: 488
BRAA: 344
FRAA: -21
For clarification purposes, WARP3 is Wins Above Replacement Level 3. This determines how many wins above replacement level (duh) a player is, but it is adjusted for all-time and also for playing time. Peak WARP is the 5 best consecutive seasons; for Abreu, his Peak WARP is extremely impressive, but since he is on pace to have his best season yet (let’s say 10 WARP to give him a nice round number) it should improve. Let’s see what his Peak WARP would look like if he were to finish at 10 WARP3 this year:
Career WARP3: 66.4
Peak WARP: 43.1
JAWS: 54.75
Better still. Alright, JAWS is a formula developed by Jay Jaffe of Futility Infielder
and Baseball Prospectus fame. The formula is very simple: [(Career WARP3 + Peak WARP) / 2] BRAR is Batting Runs Above Replacement. BRAA is Batting Runs Above Average. BRAR gives you a good idea of career value, while BRAA focuses more on peak. FRAA is Fielding Runs Above Average. I know that Abreu’s career total thus far looks awful, but he has been steadily improving and could finish much closer to average when all is said and done. What do all of these numbers mean though? Let’s compare Abreu’s totals to your average Hall of Fame Right Fielder.
Right Fielder
Career WARP3: 110.2
Peak WARP: 43.3
JAWS: 76.8
BRAR: 754
BRAA: 482
FRAA: 33
Career WARP3: 102.5
Peak WARP: 43.1
JAWS: 72.8
BRAR: 618
BRAA: 354
FRAA: 36
Can you believe Bobby Abreu is on pace to become a Hall of Fame right fielder? His peak is already there, his Career WARP3 is sure to reach, considering he needs only 50 more in the next 10 years basically. His JAWS will reach with the career value filling out, and everything else will follow. Why do I bring him up though? What worries me about Abreu is this:
All-Star Appearances: 1 (2004)
Top Finish in MVP Vote: 16th
The media and fans do not know about Bobby Abreu. Maybe you do, as readers of daily content on various websites who try to keep this sort of thing from happening, but I am honestly very afraid of Bobby Abreu not receiving due credit for what he has accomplished in his career when it is all said and done down the road. Your talking to someone who has a deep dark feeling that Tim Raines is somehow going to be ignored by the BBWAA when it is his turn. There is still time for Abreu, as he is not even close to finishing off his career as of now. Spread the word, tell your friends, write to sportswriters everywhere. Bert Blyleven and Ron Santo don’t need any company on the Royally Screwed Couch of Eternal Damnation, and I sure as hell don’t want to have to induct Abreu into the Ray Lankford Wing of the Hall of Fame. Spread the word; do it for the children. Oh, and for all the people out there who don’t like WARP and JAWS, check out Abreu’s 162 game averages:
HR: 23
2B: 41
3B: 6
SB: 29/39
BB: 106
SecAvg: .430
Iso: .212
Again, spread the word.

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