Unpopular Opinion: Wennberg may not be ready for the Show

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During the Ryan Johansen saga of the pre-season, many were quick to anoint rookies like Kerby Rychel, Marko Dano and Alexander Wennberg as having spots on the team. Wennberg, specifically, had a considerable build-up as a guy who was “ready” for the NHL, even before pre-season began. Team media and bloggers publicly pumped his tires as a potential top six forward to try and divert attention away from the Johansen situation and soften the blow should Joey not start the season with the club: “Sure, our best player isn’t here, but LOOK AT THE SHINY NEW TOYS.”

Wennberg proceeded to have a mostly average camp, something which was glossed over among all the hype about him. He did give people something to be excited about at the end of the pre-season, finishing off strong with a great game against Nashville. Even after the Johansen Stand-Off came to a fruitful conclusion, the injuries to Boone Jenner, Brandon Dubinsky and, perhaps to a lesser extent, Brian Gibbons assured Wennberg a spot in the opening night line-up. Wennberg was placed on a line with Scott Hartnell and Artem Anisimov, a trio that, on paper, looked to be a good bet to succeed: young, shifty rookie mixed with a skilled two-way centre and a veteran power forward.

The issue isn’t so much Wennberg’s offensive skill; he’s had a few chances and, as some of claimed, has been snake-bit. No one can deny that the save by Robin Lehner of Ottawa was just outright robbing the youngster of his first goal. Wennberg’s been on the ice for a few scoring chances for, including four that he’s directly had. He has contributed 11 shots, and throws down an average of 10.8 shot attempts per 60 minutes of 5v5 icetime [8th on the team]. These aren’t bad numbers, especially for a rookie.

But unfortunately, his lone assist came on the only Goal For he’s been on the ice for in the first five games. His line has been on for a whopping seven 5v5 goals against already, of the 12 that have been scored against the Jackets. He’s not been on the plus side of shot attempts, either, throwing out a 47.2 CF%, -7.36% relative to the rest of the team, and the lowest of his regular linemates. What’s a bit more concerning about this is that he’s started more than 51% of his shifts in the offensive zone, and yet he’s the only member of his line that doesn’t have a higher percentage of those shifts finish in the ozone.

But the concern is less about his possession stats over five games, and more about the issues that arise when focusing on his play. For all the offensive skill he possesses, Wennberg looks out of place when he’s not controlling the puck, lost in the defensive zone, and his confusion over defensive assignments has led directly to at least a couple of those aforementioned goals against. To his credit, Wennberg is quick to backcheck, and understands the “hustle back” mentality that Todd Richards preaches, but once he’s in the defensive zone he just tends to float around. His consistency with marking opponents isn’t an issue that just plagues him, as his missed assignments lead to teammate confusion and coverage breakdowns.

Perhaps this is something that head coach Richards has noticed. Near the end of the game against Ottawa, Wennberg was bumped down to the third line into his natural centre position, sandwiched between the trusty Matt Calvert and the streaking Cam Atkinson. It could be the hope of the coaching staff that playing a more familiar spot, with a winger who has been given a lot of shut down minutes this year in Calvert, will spark his offensive game while limiting the defensive breakdowns. The only issue I have with this is that the centre of a line has more of a defensive responsibility than his wingers, which may exacerbate the problems rather than to alleviate them.

Is a five-game sample sufficient to write-off a player? Probably not, and that’s not what I’m trying to do. Do I feel that these defensive deficiencies are something that is just a symptom of “small sample size”? I do not; he suffered the same breakdowns in the pre-season, but people were more focused on his offensive zone play. Is this missing defensive skill learnable? Of course it is. Should it be learned by playing top six minutes on a team that cannot afford to give away any points in the standings? Absolutely not. Should it be learned playing bottom six minutes on that same team? Definitely not.

This is why I believe that, in my unpopular opinion, Wennberg should be the first guy sent down to Springfield when a healthy body is ready to return to the line-up.

– Jeremy
Tell me how wrong and stupid I am on twitter, @307x

[Stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Analysis, and scoring chance data courtesy of @joshweissbock‘s Scoring Chance Tracker. Featured image via Kirk Irwin at Getty Images.]
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