Official Preview: USF Bulls vs. NC State Wolfpack

Last week was a bit of a surprise for both the USF Bulls and Maryland Terrapins. Double-digit favorites, the vaunted Terps passing attack was supposed to walk all over the Bulls. Instead, it was the Bulls with the lead entering the fourth quarter.

Ultimately, they couldn’t hold on, but it did offer some encouragement for the young defense. The offense on the other hand? That’s another story. We’ll see how both fare this Saturday, when the Bulls host ACC opponent North Carolina State.

Let’s get to it.

The Who: vs. North Carolina State Wolfpack
The Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL
The When: Saturday, September 13th, 3:30 PM

NC State’s Run Defense

This is a “good thing/bad thing” sort of situation, so let’s tackle this in two parts. First, the bad: this is clearly going to be a one-dimensional offense. The quarterbacks have already struggled mightily and now might have to start backup Steven Bench (the feeling is that White could be a game-time decision).

With the lack of efficiency from the quarterbacks, it puts all of the pressure on the running game to produce in the face of stacked boxes daring them to throw the ball. Holes become smaller, lanes become less frequent and those yards become tougher to acquire.

The good thing, though, is that NC State has shown it’s not terribly good at defending the run. The Wolfpack clock in at 104th in the nation against the run, giving up 214.5 yards per game (5.26 yards per rush). If the Bulls can get even a little production from the passing game, it could open up Marlon Mack and the rushing attack for big things.

NC State’s Pass Defense

When you’re this lackluster, it becomes less about your matchup and more about just doing the basics correctly. White was terrible in a week one win and managed just one pass before leaving due to injury against Maryland.

Bench stepped in and was merely average, completing 15-of-37 passes for 172 yards. He managed to make some long connections with his secondary receivers, but there is no sense of consistency to the passing game at this point and star receiver Andre Davis has been nearly invisible.

As for the Wolfpack passing defense, it isn’t great. It ranks 88th in the nation in passing yards allowed at 250/game, so it can be compromised. It’s up to Bench or White or whoever Willie Taggart throws out there to exploit the chances given to them.

NC State’s Run Offense

The Bulls have shown themselves to be a stellar rushing defense and very opportunistic on top of that. They forced six turnovers against Maryland last week, four of them fumbles. They are young on the defensive line, but their linebackers have shown a knack for making plays and limiting the effectiveness of their opponents’ rushing game.

The Wolfpack, meanwhile, are actually pretty decent at running the ball. They’re 49th in the nation in yards per game right now with 207.5 per game and are led by the two-headed attack of Shadrach Thornton (24 carries, 159 yards and three touchdowns) and Matt Dayes (19 carries, 113 yards and one touchdown).

If USF has a hope of taking this one, it’ll need to limit the running game and force the Wolfpack into long passing situations.

NC State’s Pass Offense

USF did a pretty good job limiting a good Maryland attack last week, overcoming a pair of early passing touchdowns to shut things down and limit the Terps to just 201 passing yards on the day. It also held the talented Stefon Diggs to just 50 yards on seven catches.

Against the Wolfpack, the young secondary is going to be tested once again. Quarterback Jacoby Brissett has shown good accuracy, completing 71% of his passes (49/69) for 544 yards, five touchdowns and just one pick. He’s also been pretty good at distributing the ball evenly, with eight receivers catching multiple passes through the team’s first two games.

The secondary will not only have to worry about the first option, but the second through fifth options, too. Pressure on Brissett will go a long way towards limiting the damage the passing attack can cause, so sending blitzers from all over could fluster him.

Three Things to Worry About

•  The rushing attack can’t get going. As we saw last week, it’s tough for the Bulls’ offense to be effective when they’re unable to throw the ball. Mack and the rushing attack face stacked boxes, but they’ll still need to grind out the yards and keep the offense moving.
• No pass rush. The secondary will only be able to do so much against an efficient pass offense like this if they can’t develop a rush to get into the face of Brissett.
• The quarterbacks don’t progress. By now we know that the quarterbacks just aren’t very good, but neither is the Wolfpack defense. This is the week for White to finally look competent. If he doesn’t, that could mean really ugly things for USF going forward.

Three Things to Look Forward to

• Another big day for Mack. This is a bad rushing defense, with a capital B. It struggled to stop Georgia Southern and Old Dominion and neither of those teams has the kind of talent that USF has on offense.
• The pass defense gets dinged, but hangs in. On paper, it seems as though the Wolfpack passing game is just too deep. They have a plethora of receivers for Brissett to work with and he’s shown fantastic accuracy thus far. Still, there’s talent in the secondary and they’ve shown the ability to be effective.
• White looks better. At least marginally so. Then again, it’d be really hard for him to do as poorly as he did in Week 1, but they were also playing an FCS opponent then, so yeah.

Prediction: NC State 27, USF 17