Over the past few seasons, a popular narrative surrounding the Oregon Ducks football team has formed: Oregon has a “Stanford Problem.” While the Ducks have clearly been one of the elite teams in college football over the past few years, opponents with dominant defensive lines and power running games who could control the pace of the game were their Kryptonite.
The poster child for this formula has been the two-time defending Pac-12 Champion Stanford Cardinal, after consecutive losses to the Cardinal all but eliminated the Ducks from National Championship consideration the past two seasons.
So, with the Cardinal once again starting the college football season ranked in the top 10, everyone had the big November 1st showdown, between the teams who accounted for the past four conference titles, circled as the Pac-12 game of the year and unequivocally the Ducks biggest test on the season.
By late Saturday night, however, it became clear that the third time is the charm for Marcus Mariota and the Ducks. Oregon pasted Stanford 45-16 in shocking fashion, more than doubling the average yards and nearly quadrupling the average points allowed by the Cardinal defense coming into the game. And, of course, as the score started scrolling across the ticker on TVs across the nation, the headlines began rolling in shortly thereafter: “Oregon Has Finally Solved Its Stanford Problem!”
While that may be factually accurate in the truest sense of the words, this was a battered and bruised Stanford crew that flat out wasn’t ready to compete with an Oregon team who has been clicking on all cylinders as of late. And, while they still played the same smash mouth style of years past, this installment of David Shaw’s Stanford Cardinal just didn’t have the playmakers on either side of the ball to seriously challenge the revenge-minded Ducks.
With the Cardinal now sitting at a thoroughly average 5-4, this win was much more symbolic than anything else. The real test versus a physically dominant foe lies ahead this Saturday, when the Ducks travel to Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City to take on the 17th ranked Utah Utes.
After struggling to adapt to the Pac-12 level of play and failing to reach a bowl game in either of their first three years in the conference, Utah has seemed to finally turn the corner and is now not only bowl eligible, but, they’re right in the thick of the Pac-12 South race.
Most impressively, though, is how they’re winning games: with a stout defense and a power running game. They’re lining right up with the “big boys” of the conference and punching them in the mouth. More than even the Cardinal themselves, Utah is this year’s “Stanford.”
The Utes are led by running back Devontae Booker, the leading rusher in Pac-12 play after cracking the century mark in all five contests so far, averaging 162 ypg in the process. He’s the exact type of bruising tailback that Stanford has used to pound Oregon into submission the past two years, averaging over 30 carries per game in conference play.
When paired with the unspectacular, yet mistake free, duo of Travis Wilson and Kendal Thompson at quarterback (only 2 interceptions thrown between them), the Utes have the exact kind of Stanford-esque ball control offense that has given the Ducks trouble in the past.
If Utah can successfully slow down the game by grinding out long clock swallowing drives on offense, they can keep their defense rested and limit the number of stops required to keep Oregon’s offense from getting in a rhythm. That’s a tall task, even in limited possessions, but, once again, Utah has going for them one of the biggest key ingredients needed to ground these high flying Ducks: one of the top defensive lines in the country.
The Utes don’t just have a good defensive line, they have arguably the most dominate such unit in the entire country, racking up a nation-leading 39 sacks as a team, led by Nate Orchard and Hunter Dimick, 2nd and 3rd in the conference with 12 and 9 takedowns respectively. Those are the kinds of numbers that will put fear into anyone’s eyes, but, with the Ducks appearing to lose yet another offensive tackle to injury (this time, replacement for the replacement, Matt Pierson), holding their own on the line and keeping Mariota upright is of particular concern.
Whether it was because of a beat up offensive line, or because of spectacular play from the opponent’s defense, the two games where the Ducks struggled to protect Mariota were the games where the offense sputtered. While the offensive line has looked much improved over the past few weeks, Utah has the players on their defensive line that can tear apart even the most cohesive blocking units. Allowing the Ducks Heisman Trophy favorite ample time to work his magic will be tantamount to their offensive success.
All this isn’t to say that the Utes are without any weaknesses. The loss of leading receiver Dres Anderson to injury has left Utah without a viable deep threat on offense, and, when combined with a still as yet unsettled quarterback controversy, the passing game has been anemic of late. In fact, Utah has yet to throw for even 200 yards in a single conference game this season, including a woeful 57 yards in last week’s overtime loss to Arizona State (their first game without Anderson).
They have also struggled some on pass defense, ranking 8th in the conference in defensive pass efficiency, despite getting such good pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So, if the Ducks can keep Mariota’s jersey clean and buy him some time, there should be open receivers to throw to.
In the end, while Utah may possess some of the key characteristics that have given Oregon trouble in the past, they still are not quite the complete team on the level of 2012-13 Stanford. That said, it doesn’t require a team of that level to take down the Ducks, as we’ve seen with losses to good but not great Arizona teams the past two seasons.
On top of that, this game will take place in altitude, at one of the more underrated venues in college football, and against a team whose greatest strengths align almost perfectly with the Ducks most glaring weaknesses. Make no mistake about it, the Ducks are going to face all the same challenges as last week and then some. If they’re not mentally and physically ready for the impending slugfest they could very well see their dream of the school’s first National Championship fly away into the thin mountain air of Salt Lake City.
Heading into this weekend’s matchup, it’ll be important for the team to understand that this isn’t the Utah of the past few seasons, this is simply Stanford, Act II. If the Ducks don’t bring their A game on Saturday, come next year, Oregon’s “Stanford Problem,” could very well be replaced with a “Utah Problem.”
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