The Los Angeles Lakers came out of the Draft Lottery with the No. 2 pick. Should they look into trading it for an established star?
The Los Angeles Lakers are not used to being bad.
Hanging on the walls of Staples Center are 16 banners to represent the titles won by the purple-and-gold, second only to the Boston Celtics (17), who accrued most of their banners before 1975. The Lakers have reached the NBA Finals in every single decade, and have won five titles since 2000, most in the NBA. They were good at the beginning of the league, and they have been good in the recent past.
No team boasts more stars than the city of stars. Jerry West, the Logo. Wilt Chamberlain, he of the 100 point game. Kareem. Magic. Shaq. Kobe. The Lakers and their fans win, and they do so with effusive personalities.
With the retirement of Kobe Bean Bryant coming in true Hollywood fashion, the Lakers find themselves without a star for the first time in decades, if not ever. Swaggy P has the attitude but none of the ability. Julius Randle has the top-notch nickname – “Orange Julius” – but is a one-way player yet to make an impact on the league. D’Angelo Russell was the second pick in last year’s draft, but is more well known for his Snapchat foibles than his dominance on the court.
Drafting no. 2 overall yet again, the Lakers have a decision to make. Do they pick the best remaining player, likely forward Ben Simmons of LSU or wing Brandon Ingram of Duke? Or should they take that pick and try to turn it into a player who is already a true star ready to take on the mantle of Lakertown’s mightiest hero? As with most basketball decisions, there are two sides to this coin.
The Case for Keeping the Pick
The 2016 Draft is thought of as a weaker draft class. While the first round has plenty of depth for rotation pieces, only a handful of players have star-level ceilings. And for teams seeking superstars, this is a two-player draft. Ben Simmons and Brandon Ingram are on a tier by themselves, and the Lakers are guaranteed one of those two players if they keep their pick.
Star players on rookie contracts are the best source of surplus value in the league. Short of a superstar signing a below-market level contract (think Stephen Curry and his $11.3 million salary this year), high-end rookies can far exceed their contracts with excellent play on the court. Because the CBA sets a rigid rookie scale that keeps players at low numbers for four years and sets up a team to retain its players on their second contracts, the Lakers could have a cost-controlled star for the next eight or nine years.
The effect of the above system is that the Lakers would be freed up to spend their cap space elsewhere. If the 76ers draft Ben Simmons – which has been rumored already (partly due to coach Brett Brown’s relationship with his father) – the Lakers could draft Brandon Ingram to play at the 3 as a long, sharp-shooting small forward. Armed with over $50 million in cap space, they could bring in players such as L.A. native DeMar DeRozan to play on the wing with Ingram, and center Hassan Whiteside to man the middle. Both Whiteside and DeRozan are younger stars who should stay in their prime for the next few years.
The above sort of scenario would give the Lakers elite-level talent at all five positions (including Russell and Randle), as well as the ability to go after another max-level player in 2017 as the cap leaps yet again. They would have restocked the cupboard with stars and kept their future bright.
The Case for Trading the Pick
The problem with draft picks is there are rarely guarantees with young players. Brandon Ingram and Ben Simmons may seem to be elite prospects, but so did Greg Oden, Kwame Brown, Hasheem Thabeet, or Joel Embiid. None of those picks provided the return their teams were looking for when they picked them in the top-three. (Editor’s Note: Let’s not count Embiid out just yet.)
Free agency is also a gambler’s game. A “perfect scenario” may involve drafting a star and signing a few more, the sort of “have your cake and eat it too” dreamworld where the Lakers seem to reside. But the last few years the Lakers have struck out in free agency, spurned by the likes of Dwight Howard, Carmelo Anthony, LaMarcus Aldridge, and even Greg Monroe. Can they go into July with confidence that any top free agents will come to L.A.?
Trading the pick provides a level of assurance. If a team agrees to a deal, the Lakers know they are getting that star, someone who has already proven to the league they can play at a high level. They can market that player to their fanbase as someone they already know.
Trading the pick also gives the team their best shot at winning next year. After posting the worst seasons in franchise history during each of the last two years, the clock is ticking on owner Jim Buss and G.M. Mitch Kupchak. A self-imposed “three-year plan to contention” has only one year remaining. If the Lakers don’t succeed next year – whether that’s in wins or playoff success – then Buss’ sister Jeanie takes over and Kupchak is probably shown the door.
As talented as Ingram or Simmons may be, they aren’t going to seriously improve this team next season. DeRozan and Whiteside are talented players, but neither is a top-20 player. If the Lakers could flip their pick into a true superstar, they would surely see improvement next year.
Who Would Be a Possible Trade Target?
The trade market for disgruntled stars looking for a change of scenery, or disgruntled teams looking for a change of roster, is always much smaller in reality than the media hopes for. That being said, a number of star players have at least some chance at moving this offseason.
First, those players who aren’t moving this year. The resurgence of the Cavaliers in the postseason has most likely closed the door on Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love being shopped. Chris Paul, although nearly a Laker in 2011 before the trade was aborted by the league office, is the best player on the Clippers and the key to everything they do. Despite the subpar season in Houston, GM Daryl Morey is not giving up James Harden no matter the offer.
One of the most discussed options is Sacramento Kings center DeMarcus Cousins. The big man put up great numbers yet again this year, averaging 27 points and 11.5 rebounds, but tensions with coach George Karl seemed to derail the season before it began. While new coach Dave Joerger will probably have a chance to reach the troubled center, the right offer could convince the Kings to relinquish him.
Another popular option is Chicago Bulls wing Jimmy Butler. Continued whispers of tension between Butler and Derrick Rose have leaked out, and Rose’s contract and injury history make him a difficult player to move. Chicago’s front office has not been afraid to cut ties with a player they view as a problem. With many of the Bulls’ veteran players hitting free agency this offseason, they could elect to “reset” the roster – and adding draft picks would help them do so.
Carmelo Anthony has long been tied to the Lakers, as his big-city preferences and Hollywood personality would seem to make him the perfect fit. The Knicks would almost certainly be happy to trade him, adding young players to play alongside Kristaps Porzingis under new coach Jeff Hornacek. But Anthony has a no-trade clause, and he has shown no inclination to waive it thus far.
One final option would need to be part of a three-team trade. The Los Angeles Clippers may decide to move on from Blake Griffin this summer, but Doc Rivers will have no interest in a draft pick that cannot help him for another few years. But finding a team with talented veterans that could fill in the Clippers rotation could make something work. A team like the Denver Nuggets could offer the Clippers Will Barton, Danilo Gallinari, and a big of Rivers’ choice, the Lakers would get Griffin, and the Nuggets the Lakers’ no. 2 pick.
The Verdict: Trade or Not?
The smart, long-term decision to make here is keeping the pick. While there is always uncertainty with a draft pick, both Simmons and Ingram seem destined for future All-Star games at a minimum. The prestige of the Lakers paired with the allure of L.A. should bring stars in free agency either this year or the next, and a young core of Russell, Randle, and either Simmons or Ingram – not to mention talented youngsters Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. – would set this team up to be great in a few years.
The problem is that Jim Buss and Mitch Kupchak don’t have a few years; they have one. And if they keep the pick, take Ingram or Simmons, and then strike out in free agency, next season’s Lakers will not be much better than this season’s. If that happens, management is changing next year for sure. If I am Mitch Kupchak, I am calling every team in the league and seeing if I can make something happen.
As a neutral observer, they should keep the pick. But speaking for Buss and Kupchak, trading for a star is the right move to make. And because they’re the Lakers, it will probably work out no matter what they do.
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