We Are Not Draft Experts

We don’t know enough about the NBA Draft, but pretending to creates expectations that will never be met.

Tuesday, the brilliant Baseline Buzz tweeted this not-so-real comment from Chad Ford:

Chad Ford on McDermott: “He can’t guard anyone in the NBA, lacks a first step and is already 22 but some scouts see a little Lebron in him”

— Baseline Buzz (@BaselineBuzz) June 10, 2014

The tweet went supernova within a fraction of a second, because as ridiculous as it sounded, it was a bit too believable. After a few people assumed Chad Ford was up to his usual tricks, a follow-up tweet would confirm that no, Chad Ford was not up to his usual tricks:

Overestimated reach of #FakeChadFordQuotes. Now realize difficulty in deciphering his real nonsense from my made up version of his nonsense.

— Baseline Buzz (@BaselineBuzz) June 10, 2014

There is a lesson here beyond Baseline’s criticism of Ford. As the draft grows nearer, the amount of draft experts has risen exponentially, and because this draft is supposedly the best since ’03, the amount of analysis has cranked up beyond a healthy level of saturation. I understand the increased coverage to an extent – this is after all the part of the NBA offseason when the only thing to look forward to is the draft. Every NBA-related publication is gearing all its coverage to an event two and a half weeks away, and as a result there are a lot of writers having to cover a topic with which they aren’t familiar.

Because we live in a world of unbiquitous social media, however, anybody with a Twitter account can proclaim player X as the player a team should draft based off watching a handful of games or YouTube compilations. A lot of this is harmless – the final decision does after all rest with each team – but as Commodus learned in the absolutely historically accurate “Gladiator,” Rome is controlled by the mob.

Last summer, Charlotte took Cody Zeller fourth overall. While a reach, general manager Rich Cho had been set on the power forward, having scouted him all season. Charlotte fans, however, weren’t as high on the pick:

Charlotte should have taken McLemore, they said. Should have taken Nerlens Noel or Alex Len. Charlotte fans were set on any of them over Zeller. Yet after one season, it was Zeller who was named to the All-Rookie team over the other three. Zeller’s rookie year was far from perfect, and without semi-productive play the final two months of the season he wouldn’t have made the second team. He needs to improve aspects of his game, and the other three will likely improve (and in Noel’s case, finally play), but Zeller did not end up the disastrous pick Charlotte fans believed it was, and there’s a decent chance Zeller becomes a productive player.

Front offices spend months, sometimes years, scouting players. The Kings scouted Ray McCallum for years before selecting him in the second round last offseason. Teams do their due diligence because unlike the majority of us, they have the resources to do so. They aren’t perfect either, but I put more stock in their decision-making than I would mine.

Often we (and I say “we” because I’ve been guilty of this, too) get so caught up in the hype and so fixated on one player or another, that we build them up beyond what they are or are ever capable of becoming. Is it fair to compare Joel Embiid to Hakeem Olajuwon? Absolutely not. Yet these comparisons have been made, because they create buzz and cumulate clicks. And while its easy to brush aside such comparisons, it can be detrimental to make them before Embiid has even played professionally.

Wiggins committed to Kansas, viewed as the best prospect since Lebron. A year later, he’s now viewed as talented but too passive to become a franchise player. Is Wiggins really that passive, or are we saying this because he didn’t dominate the college game like he was supposed to?

Commodus was an asshole, but he knew how to please his people. His plan was all mapped out until one vengeful general named Maximus showed up. The people instead grew to love him; he was strong, skilled, highly athletic, and aggressive. This was the man to represent Rome, they said. Well, their prized pick lasted a total of five fights, so was he really worth all the hype? (Don’t answer that).

Ultimately, we should be excited for the draft, but we should also keep in mind that we really don’t have a clue about it.