The Outsiders like the Colts…their numbers like the Ravens more?
Indianapolis has gone 14-0 by excelling in the specific situations that we’ve found correlate best with wins. Our “estimated wins” metric uses total offense, total defense, and special teams, plus five other splits. Indianapolis is in the top three in the league in four of those five splits: week-to-week consistency, offense in the first quarter, and both offense and defense in the second half of close games. I’m pretty sure that most of the FO staff feels the Colts are really the best team in the league this year, no matter which teams have a slightly higher DVOA rating, and I would include myself as someone who feels that way. However, the fact remains that in the past, total DVOA has been a better indicator of future performance than the “estimated wins” metric.
Indy is 3rd on O, 9th on D.
They have a 45% chance to 16-0, and a league high 20.4% to win the Super Bowl
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