Slowly but surely, I am creeping back in this game. Using my “Top 12” strategy, along with my “don’t try to make up the deficit all in one week” plan, I managed to come out tied for first last week, putting me only five games back in the overall standings. Part of me is kicking myself for not picking Cinci over Buffalo, since I had a major hankering that the Bills were going to have a let-down game after overcoming the Pats. However, I trust my Top 12 rankings more than my gut, and think that in the long term, I’ll save myself several “Chicago over Green Bay” debacles for every one “Cincinnati over Buffalo” game that my gut happens to be right on.
This week is particularly interesting, since Jason, Rick, Stephen, and Trevor all made identical picks. I think conventional wisdom backs up their picks as the Packers, Texans, and Lions are clear favorites. Philly and Pittsburgh have been underwhelming thus far and “should” be better than the surprising Bills and Titans. However, after four games, Buffalo really has looked much more impressive, hence their “Top 12” status. Pittsburgh’s been disappointing overall and Roethlisberger is injured. The Titans outrank them in the Top 12 and did manage to beat Baltimore. I think they’re the hotter hand at the moment.
You can count the number of 5-0 weeks that we’ve had in this game on one hand, so I’d like to think I have a decent shot of at least breaking even at 1-1 on the two games that I deviated from the group. If not, I might find myself a miserable seven games out of the lead. Still, if I can nail both of them…
| Game | Derek | Jason | Rick | Stephen | Trevor |
| PHI @ BUF |  |
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| OAK @ HOU |  |
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| TEN @ PIT |
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| GB @ ATL |
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| CHI @ DET |  |
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| Last Week | 3-2 | 1-4 | 2-3 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Record | 9-11 | 9-11 | 12-8 | 13-7 | 14-6 |
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