The FSU-Notre Dame primetime matchup didn’t disappoint last us last week. Despite a strong performance from Notre Dame junior QB Everett Golson, FSU earned a victory behind junior Jameis Winston’s near-flawless second half. But while those juniors performed well, Baylor’s senior QB Bryce Petty continued to struggle to deliver the ball accurately when pressured. Over the past three games against Texas, TCU and West Virginia, he’s accumulated an uninspiring 45.1% completion percentage. Petty’s physical ability combined with the 2015 draft class lacking much firepower will almost certainly keep him in day two discussions, but he has to turn things around as the season winds to a close.
This week, the game of the week is in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Can senior Bo Wallace keep playing mistake free football? He hasn’t thrown an interception in the month of October and will look to extend his three-game, interception-less streak into November. As has been the weekly tradition here at Optimum Scouting, keep reading for the top prospects and matchups to focus on this weekend.
By: Alex Brown
Texas at No. 11 Kansas State, ESPN, 12:00 PM EST
Every year it seems like Texas has fewer and fewer high-profile draft prospects, but they do have a handful of talented skill position players. Texas’ senior RB Malcolm Brown owns a powerful build, but impresses the most with his vision and footwork between the tackles. He’s quick to locate an alley, lower his pad level and burst up the field. Still, the production hasn’t quite been there for this Longhorns rushing attack (ranked 2nd to last in the Big 12) and they face the stingiest run defense in the Big 12 as Kansas State allows just over 100 yards rushing per game. Leading that Kansas State defense is junior CB Danzel McDaniel, who wins on the perimeter as a long, physical and attacking corner. He tends to play from the tilt and lacks a refined backpedal, but bullies receivers that try to block him and possesses the closing burst to finish tackles in the backfield (5 TFL on the season). McDaniel’s task in this contest will include guarding Texas senior WR prospects Jaxon Shipley and John Harris. It’s nothing new with Jaxon Shipley showcasing very smooth route running skills and sure hands at the catch point, while John Harris has been surprisingly productive as a more involved vertical weapon for the Texas offense.
When Kansas State has the football, my focus will be on the WR-DB matchup between senior WR Tyler Lockett and senior CB Quandre Diggs. Lockett has developed a habit of trapping catches against his body, but made a handful of standout receptions in Kansas State’s upset win over Oklahoma. He’s a savvy route runner that disguises his intentions well, and that’ll be a good test for future NFL nickel CB Quandre Diggs. And not to be confused with the senior RB, junior Malcom Brown has been nearly unblockable this season on the defensive line. Brown leads Texas in tackles for loss and sacks, displaying elite balance and hand usage to easily discard opposing blockers. Kansas State senior OC B.J. Finney is a pretty consistent cog on the Wildcat offensive line, but this matchup is slanted in Brown’s favor from a physical tools standpoint. Kansas State may not have the highest-scoring offense in the world, however they lead the Big 12 with a 50% third down conversion rate. Facing a unique triple option attack from Kansas State that preys on aggressive run fits by opposing linebackers with a TE pop pass, I’ll be interested to see how senior ILB Jordan Hicks performs. Hicks has returned to form this season after missing the previous two seasons with injury and grades out as an early day three prospect.
No. 1 Mississippi State at Kentucky, CBS, 3:30 PM EST
Kentucky suffered a disastrous loss to LSU this past weekend, but they still have plenty of NFL Draft talent to evaluate vs the top ranked Mississippi State Bulldogs. Upfront Mississippi State needs to have a plan in place for blocking seniors Bud Dupree and Za’Darius Smith. Dupree is an extremely versatile defender that can play with his hand in the dirt or from a standup linebacker position. His physical skill set and elite edge athleticism could make him a potential top 15 overall draft selection. Teammate Za’Darius Smith is more of point of attack specialist that wins with powerful hand usage. He fits the bill as a 5-technique for one-gapping 3-4 defensive systems, and also could be a strong side DE for 4-3 teams. But while Dupree and Smith are the top 2015 prospects, junior ILB Josh Forrest is a name to keep in mind. As a converted WR, Forrest showcases excellent closing burst to finish plays and an explosive element as a tackler. His job in this game will be containing the Mississppi State rushing attack that’s led by junior RB Josh Robinson and Heisman-contender Dak Prescott. Returning to action this week for Mississippi State is slot specialist, senior WR Jameon Lewis. Lewis is a dangerous weapon down the seams and after the catch, and projects as a solid day three draft target.
Much like Kentucky, the Mississippi State Bulldogs have their own front versatile DE in senior Preston Smith. Showing length, strength and athleticism to win as a 7-technique or 5-technique DE, along with the interior pass rush ability to work as a sub package DT, Smith can do damage all across the defensive line. Kentucky’s senior LT Darrian Miller has the foot quickness to mirror in protection, but his lack of length and great functional strength could be exposed in this game. At the second level, junior ILB Bernardrick McKinney hasn’t lived up to his preseason first round buzz. He’s still a gifted linebacker but needs to be more consistent with his angles in pursuit and coverage. His closing speed should be tested against a pair of quick RBs in sophomore Jojo Kemp and junior Braylon Heard. The only real impact receiver prospect on Kentucky’s squad is senior Javess Blue. Now healthy and recovered from an early season injury, Blue has a chance to earn a draftable grade from NFL teams. His one-on-ones with Mississippi State senior CB Jamerson Love are well worth paying attention to.
Oregon State at Stanford, ESPN 2, 3:30 PM EST
Every time I preview Stanford, I talk about their front seven and for good reason –they’re loaded with senior talent per usual. OLB James Vaughters is the edge player to evaluate, while Henry Anderson is the top DL prospect as their 5-technique starter. I’ll be looking to see how Oregon State RB Terron Ward locates running lanes and produces against this stout defense. He entered the season with a fringe draftable grade from us, so he needs to capitalize on this opportunity. Off on the perimeter, Stanford junior CB Alex Carter and senior CB Wayne Lyons will have an intriguing matchup vs rising redshirt freshman WR Jordan Villamin. The 6’4, 240 pound Villamin has excellent vertical speed and catch point body control, which should make for a good match for the pair of 6’0-plus Stanford corners.
Sticking with the WR-DB matchups, Oregon State CB Steven Nelson draws Stanford WR Ty Montgomery in coverage. Our West scout Mark Dulgerian is a big fan of Montgomery’s game, comparing him to Denver Bronco WR Demaryius Thomas in terms of creating yards after the catch. “Ineffective” would be the kindest way to describe Stanford junior QB Kevin Hogan’s play this season, but I’m hoping we get some quality targets to evaluate this matchup between Nelson and Montgomery. Coming off the edge for Oregon State’s defense, converted WR Obum Gwacham has been very productive in his first season at DE. He leads the Beavers in sacks and will be battling junior LT Andrus Peat, who has struggled in 2014 with his pass set and functional playing strength. Peat doesn’t look like the blue chip prospect he was hyped up to be during the preseason, and looks more like a fringe first rounder than a surefire one.
No. 3 Ole Miss at No. 24 LSU, ESPN, 7:15 PM EST
The site for College Gameday this week is in Death Valley, which is famously known as the place where “Dreams come to die.” One of the biggest reasons for Ole Miss’ success this season has been the improved play of their senior QB Bo Wallace. No longer hampered by a throwing shoulder that needed surgeries after each of the past two seasons, Wallace has been a different player in 2014. For the rising senior prospect, it’s all about continuing to play at a high level as the playoff pressure heats up. One of the top prospect matchups in this game centers on the left edge of the line of scrimmage, where junior DE Danielle Hunter faces off against sophomore LT Laremy Tunsil. Tunsil, though not draft eligible, is one of the best left tackles in college football and will be the toughest pass blocker Hunter’s faced all year long. The battle of true sophomores can be found on the perimeter with shutdown CB Tre’Davious White lining across from star WR Laquon Treadwell. Still, Bo has done a great job of distributing the football around this season. His top three targets In Treadwell, Vince Sanders and Cody Core have all caught more than 20 passes for over 300 yards and 4 TD apiece, while the fourth leading receiver in TE Evan Engram has 19 grabs for 292 yards and a TD score.
LSU doesn’t pass the football much (107th in pass attempts) or complete a high percentage (51%), but they do have a legit vertical weapon in Travin Dural. Among receivers with 20 or more catches in the FBS, Dural leads the country in yards per reception (25.6). On the opposite side of the football, Ole Miss’ senior CB Senquez Golson ranks second in the FBS with 7 interceptions. It’ll be a great matchup to watch, and an opportunity to evaluate Golson versus a longer, faster WR target. Breaking down the trenches for Ole Miss, senior Byron Bennett has made quite the transition from DE to nose tackle. He’s a bully with his hands and very effective on stunts, making his reps against senior OC Elliot Porter another scouting matchup to watch. At LT La’el Collins has continued to be a dominant run blocker but will face a tough opponent in junior DE C.J. Johnson. Johnson repeatedly looks to convert speed to power and has a limited repertoire, but remains an explosive athlete that can test Collins with his speed.
No. 20 USC at No. 19 Utah, Fox Sports 1, 10:00 PM EST
USC’s junior QB Cody Kessler has quietly been one of the most efficient passers in college football. Right now, he’s completing nearly 70% of his throws (5th in FBS) and set a new school-record with 7 TD passes a week ago vs Colorado. This week, he faces a much more difficult Utah defense that leads all FBS defenses with 33 sacks. Almost a third of those have come from senior Nate Orchard, who wins off the edge as a standup, speed rusher. Kessler’s go-to receiver in junior Nelson Agholor will face a talented defensive back in senior Eric Rowe. Rowe is a converted safety and another long and physical corner (6’1, 200 pounds) from Utah, who can beat up his man at the line of scrimmage, down the field and at the catch point. It’ll be a good test of Agholor’s route balance and ability to deal with contact.
As for the Utah Utes, they haven’t experienced much stability at the QB position in 2014. Junior Travis Wilson lost the job a few weeks ago, as backup junior Kendall Thompson led the Utes to victory over UCLA. Just this past week, however, Wilson replaced an ineffective Thompson to defeat Oregon State in double overtime. Regardless of who’s throwing, the Utah prospect to scout is senior WR Dres Anderson. He’s got NFL bloodlines being the son of former star NFL WR Flipper Anderson, and showcases plus body control to high point contested throws. And as always, it won’t be hard to find junior DE Leonard Williams. At this point in the season, he’s looking like the top prospect in the country and a must-watch for NFL Draft enthusiasts.
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