The Pens dropped two games this past weekend. Albeit the losses came in OT, which afforded the Penguins two loser points, but after the tear the Pens had been on the last few weeks, should mustering a mere goal in back-to-back games be a cause for concern?
Coming into this weekend, the Pens had won seven straight. The key to victory for them during that run, largely, had been their ability to score goals. Lots of them. Now if you’ve made it this far in life, you’ve most certainly at some point had someone tell you one of the following phrases: Nothing lasts forever, All good things come to an end, Santa Claus isn’t real, Regression is a real thing. So with the Pens only netting one goal on a combined 73 shots over the weekend, it may cause some to throw up a big red flag. Truth be told, it shouldn’t. Here’s why:
The Penguins’ shooting percentage entering the weekend was 9.9%. After the two losses, it now stands at 9.6%. League average is somewhere around 8.8%. The league leader, the New York Rangers, come in at 11.3%. Even with Mike Johnston behind the switchboard for nearly half the season last year, the Pens were still able to walk away from the 2015-16 regular season with a shooting percentage of 8.9%. In the playoffs, when we know everything tightens up, the Pens were able to win the Stanley Cup with a shooting percentage of 8.7%.
To gauge the range the Penguins should be at, and where we can expect them to preform, we need to look at them like a stock. They’re obviously an above average team, and that their shooting percentage has not, at any point this season, dipped below 8.5% confirms that. This is their floor. And this coincides pretty closely with their performance from last season’s sample. At their highest point this season, the Pens were rattling off goals on almost 10.5% of their shots. This is their ceiling, which is a number that is not at all sustainable. So with all that said, it’s reasonable to expect the Pens to be floating somewhere in the range between 8.5 and 9.5 percent this season.
With the Penguins shooting percentage now standing at 9.6%, it’s rational to assume a mini-slump may be coming, but given how much they actually shoot the puck — their 1,113 shots lead the league — it would be a regression that shouldn’t last long or cost them many — if any — losses in the standings. To further the emphasis that this weekend was more of a blip on the radar and less of a sign of things to come, the two teams they lost to, Los Angeles and Toronto, are ranked #2 and #12 overall in puck possession, with L.A. in the top-10 of most defensive categories, and the game in Toronto coming on the other end of a back-to-back — something the Pens historically don’t preform well in.
TL;DR: The Pens are fine.
THE LETANG FACTOR
With Letang out, it’s clear that Mike Sullivan will be elevating Justin Schultz to top-4 duties, while Derrick Pouliot will be inserted in Schultz’s spot on the bottom pairing alongside Ian Cole. Schultz played admirably this weekend, clearing over 27 minutes of ice-time Friday night, then following it up with an assist and three shots in 23 minutes Saturday night. Schultz isn’t Letang, but he doesn’t have to be for this group to survive.
The real cause for concern defensively lies with Puoliot — he was beaten badly and didn’t look comfortable playing elevated minutes Friday night, then was responsible for the turnover that led to Jake Gardiner’s OT winner Saturday night. Pouliot was a plus-3 in even strength shot attempts over the weekend, but defensive lapses and turnovers are what has kept him out of the NHL to this point and, unfortunately, it doesn’t appear he has improved in those areas much, if at all.
METRO CITY
Pens next five games are against fellow Metro Division opponents, starting with the Rangers tomorrow night at PPG. Buckle up.
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