The first three games are in the books, and the results weren’t really very good at all. After the first week of real basketball, our proprietary AUERBACH system of evaluating basketball (Augmented User-Envisioned Reality Basketball Assumption and Categorization Hypotheses) is especially hard on most of the Celtics front court.
Overall, the frontcourt’s AUERBACH rating is down to 50.6, which means they’ve been average at best. Tyler Zeller’s 10.44 rating is at the low-end, while Amir Johnson (76.23) has emerged as the most dependable big of the first three games.
Here are the individual breakdowns:
Johnson (76.23): Johnson covers for defensive mistakes, runs a very nice pick and roll with Isaiah Thomas, and generally finishes pretty well around the hoop. After the first three games, I find myself wanting Johnson to get more minutes. The Celtics need more of him.
Sullinger (64.00): After a sub par preseason, Sullinger stepped in for the suspended Kelly Olynyk and had generally performed well. His limitations were on display when he tried to guard LaMarcus Aldridge. Generally, though, he’s be pretty good.
Kelly Olynyk (55.19): On the plus side, he seems to be playing more aggressively. He’s mostly taking the shots he’s supposed to take. Problem is, he’s not making them.
David Lee: (47.14): What happened to the guy who was supposed to be the facilitator from the top of the key? He’s done some of it, and I admit my disappointment might be because of the “false positives” from this preseason, but it’s nowhere near what anyone expected. He’s struggling a little bit in this role right now.
Zeller (10.44): I like Tyler Zeller, and he hasn’t been “bad” per se, it’s just that he’s in an unfair spot. There’s no flow to his game, and he’s just not capable of adding some of the elements needed with the rest of the combinations. Basically, Zeller will have trouble with quality big men, and he can’t create any of his own offense. No one on this team is looking for him specifically, and he’s disappearing in the offense.
The big man rotation (a, ahem, “big” topic on our latest Rainin’ J’s podcast) needs to be solidified… which is another way of saying it needs to be pared down. The wave-after-wave of bodies approach to the use of depth works only if the team is running at a blistering pace and wearing other teams down. This team is not, so Brad Stevens has to make a choice: Either get this team flying at such a pace that the bigs playing 19 minutes each is truly to their advantage, or pick a few of these guys and give them a lion’s share of the minutes.
The wings are faring better, and there’s a little more clarity when it comes to them as a group:
Isaiah Thomas (84.04): What can you say about this guy that hasn’t been said. He’s doing pretty much everything the team wants him to do, and he’s added a bit more passing.
Marcus Smart (72.76): The aggressiveness is good, but the shooting is spotty. He’s progressing as a player, though. You can see he’s making better decisions on the floor.
Jae Crowder (72.08): He’s a key to this whole thing. Even when he’s not putting up actual statistics, he looks like the most important player on the floor for stretches. The AUERBACH system loves guys like that.
Avery Bradley (64.12): He’s getting a little better with his shot selection, but he’s not where we want him to be. He needs to be in the corners more. And as the massive dunk on the Spurs shows, he needs to attack more when he’s run off the 3. The habit of taking one dribble and pulling up for a long 2 has to stop.
Evan Turner (05.22): I hear some of your arguments that Turner is important because the Celtics need a playmaker on the floor. I know he had some success in that role last year. But what I see right now is a “playmaker” who isn’t making plays. Some of his errors are egregious, and I’m happy to figure out other solutions for this team that do not involved Evan Turner on the floor.
After the first three games, the issues that must be solved here are clear: The rotation of bigs needs to be addressed, and the wings still lack a bit of playmaking. Is it time to start using RJ Hunter in Evan Turner’s role? Is the rookie ready for that?
I’m ready to start trying to find out. Hunter is a better shooter and he has the ability to put the ball on the floor and find open guys. He’s not as seasoned as Turner, and he’ll make some mistakes… but… Turner’s making plenty of mistakes out there too. What’s the drop-off really going to be?
Pick up the pace, give Johnson more minutes, and bring Hunter in for Turner.
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