As we near the end of May, it’s becoming increasingly apparent that how we perceive the Angels, and thus, how they’ve built their 2015 team has happened under false pretenses. Last year, the Angels had the best offense in baseball, anchored by MVP Mike Trout, former MVP’s Albert Pujols and Josh Hamilton, and fully supported by the tragically underrated Kole Calhoun, Chris Iannetta, David Freese, Howie Kendrick and Erick Aybar. They’re rotation was led by former aces C.J. Wilson and Jered Weaver and future ace Garrett Richards. The bullpen for the second half of the year had the best sidearmer in baseball, an elite closer and a host of middle relief depth. They even had surprise breakouts from Matt Shoemaker and Mike Morin. Yes, the 2014 Angels were decidedly the best team in baseball and were in large part returning for 2015.
But what if it was all a fluke?
So far in 2015, it looks like one.
Let’s start with Chris Iannetta. With some Coors Field aided pop, Iannetta came with the reputation of being a solid defensive catcher with pop and great plate discipline, as evidenced by his career .350 OBP and 25% caught stealing percentage. Last year, the Angels didn’t receive that, they got a lot more. He ended up hitting .252 (20 points above career average) with a .373 OBP (again, 20 points above career average) and caught 30% of base stealers (5% above average). For good measure, he even slugged a career high in doubles. This may have been the Chris Iannetta the Angels were expecting to get this year, until reality struck. Iannetta is a year older now, is lost in the sauce at the plate and is now only catching a meager 21% of potential base stealers. Now, granted there’s time to get better, expecting Chris Iannetta to be such a solid defensive catcher and OBP threat may have been ill advised.
But it doesn’t stop there.
Albert Pujols. By most measurse, last year was a subdued but all-around solid year from the former best player in baseball. A .272 average with 37 doubles, 28 home runs and 100+ RBI’s is nothing to be ashamed of. But is that what the Angels can and should expect moving forward?
Now I don’t want to jump into the age argument with him, but if you look at Albert’s performance height and gradual diminishment, it lines up more with him being 37 years old this year, not 35. But even if he is 35 as he says he is, that doesn’t exactly make him a spring chicken. The fact is he’s in his mid-30’s and guys that aren’t using performance enhancers don’t improve at this age. Pujols’ power numbers so far show that he should be in line with last year’s numbers, but his ability to make solid contact and reach base, those have fallen off the proverbial cliff. This isn’t the end of Albert Pujols as an Angel. Far from it, but this may be the end of Albert Pujols, credible #3 hitter.
Howie Kendrick? Yeah he just gave the Angels the best year of his career by posting 5+ wins above replacement with career high’s in hits, OBP, RBI’s, dWAR, and second-highest in doubles and runs. The thought was the Angels weren’t necessarily replacing those numbers as much as they were replacing the normal Howie Kendrick, which is a three-win player for the most part, not a five-win player. But that just means the drop off between Kendrick’s 5+ wins and whatever Giavotella is, which right now appears to be replacement level at best, likely means a lot less in the win category for the Angels. That’s another five wins lost between 2014 and 2015.
Erick Aybar? 2014 was the second-best season of his career. He started slowly this year and is just now starting to come on, but it is highly unlikely he will match his 2014 performance.
David Freese? He battled back issues in the early part of his 2014 campaign and once he was all mended up (June, July, August and September), he had turned into the middle of the order 3B the Angels needed when they traded for him. That’s what we thought the Angels were getting for the full 2015 campaign. But as we’ve seen this year, the back did make a difference in Freese’s power numbers, as they’re right around where they were at his peak. But at age 32, his ability to make contact and work his way on base so far appear to have fallen off from his physical peak. It shouldn’t hurt his overall value terribly, but it does make Freese a different player than the Angels had expected.
But what about the pitching staff? Well the Angels have the best team ERA in the AL right now, which is in large part due to Santiago’s luck, CJ’s upswing and Richards continued progression into a Cy Young candidate. But that doesn’t look like it’s going to last for long.
Santiago’s strand-rate is astronomically low right now and there’s no way that continues. FIP currently pegs him for a 4.05 ERA, not the 2.47 he’s sporting right now and, given his history, that seems about right. Maybe a mid-to-high threes ERA, so some considerable regression is due.
C.J. Wilson wasn’t particularly unlucky last year, he was just bad. This year? He’s getting a little lucky as he leads the league in wild pitches, has somehow dropped his BB/9 to unseen levels before and most notably, his K/9 is down considerably. Without the ability to miss bats, Wilson will need to rely on keeping his BB/9 in the low twos, which seems unlikely given that his career average is near four. Chances are C.J. Wilson is likely going to get worse as the season progresses, with the off chance it unravels for him again like it did last season.
Matt Shoemaker didn’t appear to be a fluke last year. He came out of nowhere and pretty much saved the Angels pitching staff. But we’re seeing a different guy this year. He’s still missing bats and throwing strikes just like he did last year. But the thing is, in the minors, he was always homer prone, which made his ERA rise and thus held him back from assuming his rightful place as a mid-rotation piece. Last year, he kept the ball low and in the ballpark. This year though, those home run levels have returned with a vengeance, and he’s simply not keeping the ball down. His velocity is also down approximately two MPH across the board. When you add that all together, it doesn’t mean anything good. Chances are Shoemaker is better than what we’ve seen this year, but a return to near-ace status is likely out of the question. More like backend starter with the chance for mid-rotation if things pick up.
The bullpen? Yeah, they were shaky the beginning part of the year, just as they had been for years before that, pretty much since Bud Black was hired in San Diego and Mike Butcher took over for him. But then a peculiar thing happened, they got good all of a sudden. Kevin Jepsen, the hard-thrower that should never be trusted? He took over the 7th inning for the Angels and turned in by far the best year of his career. He grew into everything he should’ve been all along. The Angels traded the beleaguered Ernesto Frieri to Pittsburgh for former closer Jason Grilli, who turned a corner and became the Angels 6th inning man, which is tremendously valuable to have. Mike Morin, in his rookie season posted an ERA under three with great control and excellent strikeout numbers. He could be used in just about any situation, a jack-of-all-trades. Fernando Salas, he ended up having the best year of his career since being removed from the closer role in St. Louis. Joe Smith, the Angels setup man and part time closer put up an ERA under two, which is the only time that’s ever happened for him. FIP pegged him for a high twos ERA, not high ones. Even Huston Street came in and gave the Angels an ERA a full run lower than his career average.
In essence, everything that could go right for the Angels bullpen, did go right. But a different year means likely a different outcome for a position as volatile as relief pitching. Street’s still great, but is completely human again, Joe Smith is coming back to earth after a rocky start to 2015, Salas’ ERA is up near four, Morin’s started missing his spots, giving up the long ball, now has an ERA over six and will miss several weeks with an oblique strain. Plus, the Angels traded away Jespen for Matt Joyce who has been so bad that his numbers make Brandon Wood blush, and Jason Grilli left for free agency. What was once considered a strength because of a fluke-like end to 2014 has turned into a legitimate concern in 2015.
And finally, the Angels themselves. 98 wins in 2014. Just the way they drew it up right? But in 2013, they won only 78 games. The year before that, 89 games, the year before that 86 games, and the year before that 80 games. So essentially, what was once a 80-89 win team became a 98 win team overnight. Dipoto was likely guilty of falling for that shiny 98 win record, thinking it was absolutely real and that the Angels could jettison a couple of assets to rebuild a farm system, save some money and reallocate resources. Trading away Jepsen and losing Grilli was supposed to be fine because the Angels still had Mike Morin and Fernando Salas. Trading away Hamilton after his relapse would save $15 million useful dollars. Acquiring Matt Joyce for Jepsen would give the Angels a better lefty bat to play left field and DH. Bringing in Nick Tropeano for Hank Conger would help their future pitching depth. Trading Howie Kendrick away for Andrew Heaney was supposed to make the Angels younger, cheaper and deeper in pitching, which it has, but he’s still in AAA.
It’s highly likely that the Angels weren’t a 98-win team last year under normal circumstances. 90 wins? Yeah, I’d say that’s likely, but 98 wins, no way. The problem is they’ve taken that actual 90 win team, and likely subtracted close to ten wins with the moves they made to acquire depth. The 2014 team was likely a fluke of sorts. The Angels are hovering around .500 right now, which seems about right. The Angels should win around 80 games this season at this pace. But 80 games won’t put them in the postseason. 80 games might get some people fired.
It’s now up to Jerry Dipoto to correct the mistakes he made this offseason by bringing in the bats they need for this season. Even with a good left fielder and an effective DH, the Angels still may only be an 85-win team this season. The way things are going in the AL West and the likelihood of the Astros returning to earth, 85 wins might put the Angels in the playoffs. But that doesn’t happen unless Dipoto acts intelligently, immediately.
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