With Michigan’s season ending Saturday, all eyes turned to the Jackets’ first round pick Zach Werenski to see what he would decide – would he return to Michigan for his junior season or begin his NHL career?
This morning, the Blue Jackets announced that Werenski has signed an ATO with with the club’s AHL Affiliate in Lake Erie.
Jackets general manager Jarmo Kekalainen said via the club’s press release:
“Defenseman Zach Werenski, the Columbus Blue Jackets’ first pick in the 2015 NHL Draft, has signed an American Hockey League amateur tryout contract with Cleveland’s Lake Erie Monsters, club General Manager Jarmo Kekalainen announced today.
“Zach Werenski is a tremendous young man and a very talented player who is going to be an important part of our organization for many years and we’re excited about him taking this first step in his professional career,” said Kekalainen.”
Initial reaction to this move is that it is a smart one.
https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/714807417230467075
3. #NHL expansion rules aren't settled, so why risk – even at slightest bet – a chance that one game would require Werenski be protected.
— Aaron Portzline (@Aportzline) March 29, 2016
In addition to draft protection, with the ATO, Werenski can get a taste of the next level of hockey even without signing his entry level contract, although Aaron Portzline reports that discussion on that is underway as well..
#CBJ Zach Werenski signs amateur tryout agreement with @monstershockey. Working on three-year, entry-level deal with #CBJ.
— Aaron Portzline (@Aportzline) March 29, 2016
In discussion of the impact of Werenski signing his ELC this season, there was some confusion on whether Zach would burn a year of his ELC if he played one professional (AHL or NHL) game like most players signed out of the NCAA; or, if he would fall under the “play 10 games and then his contract kicks in.” The latter of these two options is obviously impossible for the Jackets this season who have just six regular season games remaining.
Prior to today, I did confirm with ex-NHL GM Craig Button via twitter, as did the Blue Jackets official site’s article, that Zach is a slide risk meaning he could play every game possible left in the season and still have three years left on his entry level deal.
Assuming that the next step for Werenski is signing an ELC, Zach will have three options for next season. Having removed the path to return to Michigan, the least likely option is Zach being assigned to the CHL team that owns his rights – the OHL juggernaut London Knights. Playing in London would let Zach get used to an NHL style schedule along with probably becoming the Knights top defenseman, or at least on the top pair.
The higher profile option for the young defenseman is to play with the big club in Columbus, where he’ll probably start on the third pair and work his way up. Equally suitable depending on Werenski’s readiness for the NHL game is that he plays in the 2016 training camp and the organization lets him start in the Monsters’ top four next season.
Now, if in London or Lake Erie, or maybe a small chance if in Columbus, Zach could play for Team USA again in the World Junior Championships.
For next seasons, I’m in the start him in Lake Erie camp and here’s why: for as long as I’ve been covering the Blue Jackets prospects, my opinion has always been “play the guy wherever he’ll play the most.” Right now, that is with the Monsters for a first year pro like Werenski.
The only negative for Lake Erie is that every defenseman in Lake Erie except for one (Mark Cundari who is on loan from San Jose) is back next season and only Michael Paliotta needs a contract. Besides, it’s rare for an 18-year-old to make an impact in the NHL according to Hockeyreference.com. Only 50 defensemen have played in the NHL in their 18 or 19-year-old season, and only 32 played more than 30 games.
Another reason for having Zach start in Lake Erie, is while some have said Zach is NHL ready, some scouts believe that while maybe not ready, he has all the tools he could just use some time to learn the pro game.
Another reason you can’t guarantee Zach a spot next year is because Jarmo and JD are calling the shots. Looking at their front office history, in the years Jarmo was the Assistant GM with the Blues, all of his first round picks took at least one year from being drafted to NHL debut with most taking at least two years to play a full NHL season.
UPDATE: Later Tuesday, it was announced that Werenski also signed a three-year entry level contract with the Jackets. It will begin at the start of the 2016-17 season.
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