What Degree of Difficulty? Looking At NFL PAT Distance

Weeks one and two of the NFL pre-season saw the experiment with extra point kick distance yield mildly interesting results. Last year, with the ball placed traditionally at the two yard line, effectively creating a 20 yard extra point, NFL kickers nailed 1,262 of 1,267 extra point attempts, or 99.6%. In the 32 games played in weeks one and two of this pre-season, with the ball spotted at the 20 yard line, creating a 38 yard XP, kickers connected on 133 of 141 attempts for a 94.3% conversion rate.

The experiment could be called a “success” to the extent that it made the automatic nature of the NFL PAT slightly less automatic, but what isn’t entirely clear is what degree of difficulty the NFL rules committee is aiming for to make the extra point decision in general and the PAT specifically more interesting and engaging to the fans. Is it more compelling if kickers miss the PAT 5.7% of the time, as opposed to 0.4& of the time?

Using last year’s number of attempts, a 94.3% conversion rate would produce 77 misses. Over the course of a season, 77 misses would average out to about 4.25 per week. Would any of those 4+ misses each week affect the outcome of a game, or even add any drama to their respective games?

Well, in 2013, roughly 65% of games entered the fourth quarter with a score separated by seven points or less. And, the median point differential by team for the 2013 season was 0.85 points per game.

Of course, the better teams, like last year’s Super Bowl competitors, might not be impacted much. The Denver Broncos point differential was 13.0 points per game, and the Seattle Seahawks point differential was 11.7 points per game. And, the worst teams might not be affected either. For instance, the Jacksonville Jaguars point differential per game last year was -12.7. But teams in the middle, like the Detroit Lions, Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys, Green Bay Packers, St. Louis Rams, Miami Dolphins, and the Tennessee Titans, all teams with absolute value point differentials under two points, quite possibly would be affected.

Imagine an extra point determining whether Jerry’s Boys missed the playoffs again this year?

But, what if the NFL wanted even more drama?

Arguably one of the most dramatic moments in sports that has any similarity to the NFL’s PAT is the NBA free throw, late in a game, close score, with that otherwise dominant player who just struggles at the line, shooting one and one.

The very best free throw shooter in the NBA in 2013 was Brian Roberts of the New Orleans Pelicans at 94% After Roberts, the leader board in free throw percentage dwindles from around 90% by a point every four or five players. You have to go down to the number 58 player, Ty Lawson of the Denver Nuggets, before the free throw percentages fall below 80%. However, the median team free throw percentage last season was 75.9%.

So, what would happen if NFL kickers converted PAT like NBA players knock down free throws?

Using the median team free throw percentage of 75.9% and the number of PAT attempted last year in the NFL, kickers would miss 305 extra points. That would average out to 18 per week, or over one per game. That could be fun, right?

Only there’s a slight problem. NFL kickers convert from virtually any distance more like Brian Roberts from the charity stripe than like the median NBA team.

Matt Prater of the Denver Broncos led the NFL in 2013 by converting 96.2% of his field goals. His only miss of the season was from over 50 yards.

The top 11 kickers all converted over 90% and the median was about 88%. Of the top 25 career field goal percentages of all time, 17 of them belong to current NFL kickers. The skill level of kickers has increased dramatically in recent years, thus the reason for this experiment in the first place.

Other proposals to make the PAT more difficult include widening the hash marks, making the angle of the kick more severe, and narrowing the goal posts, making a smaller target to hit.

What the NFL needs to decide is, if it, in fact, wants the PAT to be more difficult, how much more difficult.  And then use the available data to ensure that outcome. The 38 yard PAT may be what they want, or they may want more misses, in which case distance alone probably won’t produce the desired outcome.